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Betting Stuff: After a lost season, Utah is a Playoff contender either way in 2024
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Not that Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham will be saying anything nice about the 2023 Utah football season any time soon, but it did provide something that will almost certainly serve as a positive for the Utes in 2024.
Because so much of last season was cut away by injuries to virtually every position on the depth chart, Utah put young players on the field in key moments that would not have otherwise been there. Most stuck around, and now the Utes look like one of the deepest teams in the Big 12 when you add back in the top-end talent that missed time.
That’s a key factor in what has made Utah the betting favorite to win its new league in its first year there. At FanDuel, the Utes are +320 to win the Big 12 Championship Game. Kansas State (+390) is the only other team close to the Utes.
On paper, this group looks pretty stout. And my colleague, Connor O’Gara, has the Utes making it to the College Football Playoff.
On Thursday, O’Gara rolled out the first entry in a 12-part series predicting every College Football Playoff participant in the upcoming season. He had Memphis in the No. 12 spot. You can read that here. On Friday, he awarded the No. 11 seed to the Utes.
Not to spoil anything ahead, but that seed implies that Utah made it into the field without a Big 12 championship to its name.
He and I are in agreement on that front. I like Oklahoma State to win the Big 12 this season, and I wrote as such back in April. In that same piece, I also wrote about why I’m backing Utah to make the CFP regardless of who wins the Big 12.
At the time, the Utes had +310 odds to make the CFP at FanDuel. That number has since moved to +260. The former carried an implied probability of 24.4% while the latter number has an implied likelihood of 27.8%.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) is super low on Utah entering the 2024 season for reasons I can’t quite explain. The model gives the Utes just a 12.5% chance to make the CFP while Kansas (24%) and Kansas State (21.4%) are viewed as the Big 12’s best bets.
Kansas has +800 odds at FanDuel (11.1% implied odds) while Kansas State is at +310 (24.4%). If you rate FPI, perhaps that Kansas number is worth something to you.
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I think the model has some value, but some very real warts. I also completely disagree with its assessment of the Big 12.
Utah has the fifth-highest chance to win the Big 12, according to FPI. I believe Utah and Oklahoma State are the top contenders for the league.
The Utes welcome back quarterback Cameron Rising for a seventh year of college ball. Without him last year (knee), the Utes were rudderless on offense. Utah was one of the 25 most efficient offenses in the country during both of its Pac-12 title seasons (2021, 2022). With Rising’s ability to punish a defense on the ground, Utah was a top-10 rushing team both years.
Without Rising in 2023, the run game plummeted to 75th in efficiency and the overall offense tumbled all the way down to 103rd. Neither Bryson Barnes nor Nate Johnson proved capable of sustainable success at quarterback, and guys dropped like flies around them.
Whittingham said it was perhaps the most challenging season he’s ever endured from a coaching standpoint. Rising never played as he continued to rehab a total knee reconstruction. Tight end Brant Kuithe (51 career appearances, 148 receptions, 16 touchdowns) never played as he rehabbed an ACL tear from 2022. Three of the top 4 running backs missed significant time with injuries. Kuithe’s backup suffered a season-ending injury. A thin wideout room lost one of its top options. Utah was running its top safety as a running back and receiver option out of the backfield because he was the best playmaker they had available.
If there’s a question about the 2024 offense, it’s at tailback, where Ja’Quinden Jackson and Chris Curry have to be replaced on the two-deep. Both were injured last year, but they were top options when healthy. That room will be dependent on Micah Bernard (also injured in 2023) and Jaylon Glover. Both carry their own question marks, but the Utes’ ground game has probably earned the benefit of the doubt after years of consistent production.
Of course, it’s also fair to wonder what level Rising will be at after missing an entire year. Utah didn’t exactly handle the messaging well on Rising’s return to play, suggesting he could be ready for the 2023 season-opener when in reality the knee injury was significantly worse than Utah ever shared.
But Utah is in a better position today to handle a (hypothetical) Rising absence than it was a year ago. Much better. The Utes have 4-star freshman Isaac Wilson, third-year man Brandon Rose, and former 5-star recruit and Cal Poly transfer Sam Huard.
Barnes couldn’t consistently beat teams with his arm last year. Johnson wasn’t far enough along in his development to run the entire offense. Simply put: Utah has better passers on the 2024 roster than it did on the 2023 one.
And the Utes solved the only real offensive issue they had during their conference title-winning seasons.
They’ve lacked a deep threat, a guy that Rising could throw a jump ball to and trust to make a play. They’ve had to be more methodical in their movement with Rising under center. Part of that was Rising attempting those passes, but part of it was just not having a player to fill that role.
Dorian Singer transferring from USC to Utah was one of the offseason’s more underrated moves.
Rising completed only 32% of his attempts that traveled at least 20 yards in 2022 and had 5 turnover-worthy plays on 54 passes, per PFF. He completed only 38% of his deep shots in 2021.
The combination of Singer and Kuithe should be the answer. Kuithe can line up anywhere, and defenses will have to account for him every time Utah drops back to pass. Singer made 12 contested catches on a Pac-12-leading 24 contested targets during the 2022 season with Arizona. His 16.7 yards per catch that year ranked fifth among all Pac-12 players. The highlight reel was sizzling.
At USC, he was lost in the shuffle of what was a pretty heavy receiver rotation and never quite got on the same page with Caleb Williams. At Utah, he should be on the field much more frequently.
Over the last 3 seasons, Utah has generated at least 20 yards from a pass play on just 9.1% of its attempts. That ranks 106th in the FBS over that span.
During the 2022 season with Arizona, 21 of Singer’s 66 receptions (31.8%) went for at least 20 yards. Only 3 FBS receivers had more that year.
If things fall into place and everyone stays healthy (no guarantee), Utah becomes a different animal on offense.
And we haven’t mentioned the defense, which ranked 11th in the nation in the latest SP+ projections from Bill Connelly.
Utah’s win total is set at 9.5 at most major sportsbooks. At the time of publication, the best value on an over bet was at DraftKings and BetMGM, which both had -135 odds. The best value on the under was at FanDuel (+132).
ESPN Bet has the best price for Utah to make the Playoff (+280), and that’s where I’d be putting my money.
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ESPN Bet also has the best price for Utah to win the Big 12 championship (+325). Oklahoma State +850 at FanDuel is really hard to pass on, but it’s also worth mentioning that the 2 schools face each other in Stillwater on Sept. 21.
That’ll be the first time Utah leaves the state during the 2024 campaign. It’ll also be the first road Big 12 conference game the Utes play. DraftKings has an early line in that game that favors the Utes by a lone point.
Something worth considering: Both of Utah’s most recent Pac-12 championships saw the Utes win a rematch from a regular season game in the conference title game. The Utes beat USC by a point in 2022 and then smashed USC in that year’s Pac-12 title. They beat Oregon by 31 points in the 2021 regular season and then by 28 points 2 weeks later in the Pac-12 title.
Whittingham is also 11-6 in bowl games at Utah and he’s 26-10 coming off a bye week. (The later record is the sixth-best mark by any FBS program since 2005.) With any kind of extended prep, Whitt is excellent.
Utah is also 27-2 at home in the last 5 seasons. Arizona, TCU, BYU, and Iowa State all have to play at Rice-Eccles Stadium next season while Utah’s other road trips are to Arizona State, Houston, Colorado, and UCF.
There’s a path to the Playoff even if Utah doesn’t hold a Big 12 crown.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
