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We are finally here. On Friday, the first 12-team College Football Playoff kicks off and the hunt for a national championship officially begins.
I gave my thoughts on the early lines for each first-round game earlier this month. Here are the 2 games I’m targeting in the opening round of the CFP.
(As always, the best price at the time of publication is listed in parentheses, but shop around at any of your preferred sports betting apps.)
- Regular season record: 29-32
- Conference championship week: 2-1
College Football Playoff First Round odds
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | |
| No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame | Notre Dame -7 | 52.5 | ND -278 IU +225 |
| No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State | Penn State -9 | 54 | PSU -325 SMU +260 |
| No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas | Texas -12 | 51.5 | UT -485 CU +370 |
| No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State | Ohio State -7.5 | 46.5 | OSU -305 UT +245 |
All odds via DraftKings
Texas-Clemson total under 51.5 points (-108 via DraftKings)
Clemson hasn’t looked the same when facing a competent defense. Texas hasn’t looked good on offense against anyone with a pulse. Over its final 11 offensive possessions (excluding 3 runs that ran out the final 35 seconds of the first half), Clemson averaged 3.3 yards per play with 7 punts in the ACC title game against SMU. Through its 13 games so far, Texas has only scored points on 3 of its opening possessions. This game should be low-scoring to an almost annoying degree. But even if Texas figures the offense out, I don’t expect Clemson to have much success going against the Texas defense. The Longhorns are No. 1 nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA per play and they trail only Ole Miss in havoc rate, per Game on Paper. They give up the fewest yards per pass attempt of any team in the country and only 2 teams have more interceptions. No team gives up fewer plays of 10 yards or more from scrimmage per game.
Tennessee +7.5 at Ohio State (-115 via ESPN Bet)
The game script favors a lower-scoring game. This matchup has the lowest total of any of the first-round games this weekend, which seems fitting. Both defenses are much better than the accompanying offenses and, as such, I have this around 4.5 points, not the 7.5 that can be had at most sportsbooks right now. Ohio State has beaten up on inferior opponents but sputtered a bit against the stiffer tests, the ends haven’t consistently shown up in big moments, and Ohio State’s inability to run the ball with consistency are all areas of concern. Tennessee controls the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and I don’t see that changing much here. While the pass game has been inconsistent for most of this year, against a grabby and beatable secondary, the Vols might actually have one of their better days through the air. This is a breakout spot for Nico Iamaleava, who has man-beaters on the outside and a ground game that is potent enough to keep Ohio State’s safeties down. More than anything, though, I just don’t trust Ryan Day. The crowd will turn on him at home if the Buckeyes start slow.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
