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Betting on the NFL Draft always requires a pretty efficient B.S. detector. Every year ahead of the opening round, teams lie, posture, and send out smoke screens to try and influence the draft order. And things pick up expeditiously the closer we get to the first round.
The 2025 NFL Draft begins on Thursday night, with the Tennessee Titans owning the first overall pick. Practically every mock draft has the same top 3 on the eve of the draft — Cam Ward to Tennessee, Travis Hunter to Cleveland at No. 2, and Abdul Carter to New York at No. 3.
But, according to a report on Tuesday from ESPN’s Peter Schrager, both the Browns and the Giants are fielding trade calls for their top picks, with inquiring teams looking to trade up in the draft for Hunter, Carter, or Boise State tailback Ashton Jeanty.
Two things stand out to me about that specific report.
The first relates to Jeanty. When Bijan Robinson was drafted with the eighth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, and followed shortly thereafter by Jahmyr Gibbs at No. 12, some wondered if a resurgence of sorts would happen with first-round running backs. As the NFL has leaned more toward the pass game, top-10 running backs have been few and far between. Since a running back went top-10 in 4 straight drafts from 2015-18, Robinson and Gibbs are the only running backs to even be top-20 selections. If a team traded up to draft Jeanty in the top 4, he’d be just the 10th player at the position to go top 5 this century.
Last season fell back into old habits. The first running back didn’t come off the board until the 46th overall pick.
The second thing to consider: This is the closest we’ve gotten to the start of a draft in the common draft era (since 1967) without a trade involving first-round picks, according to ESPN. And ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported on Monday that multiple teams have told him there is only a preferential difference in quality between the guy who will be drafted 10th overall and the guy drafted 32nd.
Speculation about one of those top-3 picks changing hands seems like a false flag. To me, a trade for the second or third overall pick feels highly unlikely. A team like New York could draft Carter with its No. 3 pick and then move back up into the first round later to draft its quarterback of choice. And Cleveland isn’t being linked to a quarterback at No. 2 anywhere, so there’s very little reason to give up the right to draft Hunter.
Picks 4-32 are going to be chaotic. So let’s stick with what we can confidently project. Teams need quarterbacks. Teams are willing to go against the grain and reach on quarterbacks. Below, you’ll find 2 bets to target in the first round, and both of them center around the quarterback spot.
Bet QB Jaxson Dart draft position under 24.5 (+130 via DraftKings)
I think Denver’s smashing success with Bo Nix last season helps Dart out here. Plenty of people were wringing Denver’s neck for drafting the former Oregon passer too soon, and all Denver did was win 10 games for the first time in almost a decade and end its 8-year playoff drought. I think we see 3 quarterbacks come off the board in the first round, and I think Dart’s floor might be the 21st overall pick, which belongs to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Dart began his career at USC and then transferred to Ole Miss, where he was a starter for 3 years in the most grueling league in college football. He showed improvement every season and completed nearly 70% of his throws as a senior. Dart helped himself at the Senior Bowl, helped himself at the Scouting Combine, and had a solid day during the Rebels’ pro day.
Some buzz lately has linked him to New Orleans at No. 9, but that seems too high. Most of the speculation stems from a shoulder injury to Derek Carr, though I’m not sure how much that should change the draft plan. What I’m banking on is Pittsburgh creating movement at or around pick No. 21. The Steelers need a quarterback. They’ve been trapped in limbo by Aaron Rodgers’ unwillingness to get off the pot, and they’ve already traded a second-round pick to land a veteran wide receiver. So, if they want to solve the QB spot, they have to do so with their first-round pick or risk waiting another year for the right guy. Pittsburgh could take Dart, or the threat of Pittsburgh taking Dart could lead another team to move up and grab him. New Orleans has the No. 40 pick in the second round; Dart won’t be there at that time.
Schefter quoted an unnamed personnel executive saying New Orleans is “hot and heavy” on Dart. It could be at No. 9, but it certainly won’t be after No. 24.
Bet New York Giants to draft QB Shedeur Sanders (+350 via bet365)
If the New York Giants like Colorado’s quarterback, he’ll get drafted third overall. New York could try to draft Carter, hope Sanders slides out of the top 10, and then work back up to grab him with its second pick. The Giants hold the 34th pick and the 65th pick, so there are options for New York if it can find a trade partner who sees more value in the later rounds.
That being said, every single indication for months has been that Sanders will end up in New York. Ahead of Colorado’s bowl game last December, Sanders wore New York Giants cleats and said, “We know where we’re going.” Officials from the organization were at nearly every Colorado game last fall, they attended some of Sanders’ practices at Colorado, they flew to Boulder for the school’s pro day, they flew Sanders to them for a visit, and they reportedly went back to Boulder last week for a private workout. All along, the Giants have signaled that Sanders is their quarterback. I just can’t imagine New York sitting on the sidelines again.
Last year, they drafted a wideout sixth and watched quarterbacks come off the board with 3 of the next 6 selections. During the season, Daniel Jones was benched and later cut. Sanders’ tendency to hold onto the football longer than he should is a legitimate knock, but his accuracy is remarkable and he still has room to develop. Neither Russell Wilson nor Jameis Winston is a long-term answer for the Giants. Sanders would be. After everything we’ve seen, the Giants opting not to draft Sanders would be a major surprise.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
