Ad Disclosure
March is here.
The opening day of the best month in the college basketball season promises to be an important one. We’ll see 3 matchups between ranked SEC teams — one that could have major implications on the top seed line in the NCAA Tournament. We’ll also see a game in Austin that will directly impact the bubble.
Here’s how I’m betting on the action.
2024-25 record: 16-11
Note: The odds you see below are the best prices at the time of publication. Feel free to shop around at your preferred betting apps. New users can grab one of our sign-up bonuses to score a boost just about anywhere.
- 1
- 2
- 3
- 4
- 5
- 6
Tennessee-Alabama total under 158.5 points (-105 via DraftKings)
Alabama has had relative success so far this season scoring on the SEC’s top defenses. The Tide have played 2 of the top 5 defenses in league play and scored at least 85 points against both. The Tide scored a remarkable 1.27 points per possession against Texas A&M and they scored 1.181 points per possession against Arkansas. Both games came on the road. Both saw the Crimson Tide impose their style of play on slower teams. In Knoxville, I’m not sure Alabama can have the same kind of success. Maybe this game reaches the 80s, but KenPom, Bart Torvik, and EvanMiya all project a game played in the 70s. No defense is quite like Tennessee’s defense, and Alabama has only faced 1 team all year that takes the air out of the basketball the way the Vols do. Against Houston last November, there were 156 points in regulation. Tennessee can impose its style of play on anyone and I think it’ll be much harder to speed the Vols up than it will be to slow the Crimson Tide down. Tennessee has the third-best 3-point defense in the country and ranks fourth nationally in block percentage. The defense is equipped to force Alabama — a rim-or-3 team with the ball — to either take contested shots or shots outside of the normal structure of its offense.
Vanderbilt-Mizzou total over 158.5 points (-105 via ESPN Bet)
Both of these teams have versatile forwards who exploit matchups on a nightly basis. We know what Mizzou can do on the offensive end of the floor; the Tigers are averaging 120.8 points per 100 possessions this season, the fifth-best mark in college basketball. But Vanderbilt has a top-flight offense as well, and it is coming off one of its best performances of the season. On Wednesday, Vandy scored 86 points on Texas A&M in College Station. Forward Tyler Nickel drilled a career-high 7 triples to help lead the Commodores to an upset. That was against an A&M defense that, according to KenPom, ranks among the 10 best nationally. Now, the ‘Dores face a Mizzou defense that ranks 52nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. Mizzou has scored at least 80 points in each of its last 5 games and in 11 of the last 13 overall. Vandy is going to have to score to pull off another upset. I think the ‘Dores will be able to do that here.
Georgia +5.5 at Texas (-105 via FanDuel)
Neither team in this matchup is safely in the NCAA Tournament field. Though Georgia pulled off a stunning 88-83 victory over Florida in the midweek window, the Bulldogs are still on the outside looking in thanks to a prior stretch that featured 9 losses in 11 games. Joe Lunardi has Georgia as the first team out in his latest bracket projections for ESPN. And the final team into the field of 68? That’s Texas, which let slip a tremendous opportunity on Wednesday when it lost 86-81 to Arkansas in overtime. Both teams need this game, one that will help the winner while simultaneously hurting direct competition. I’m expecting a tight, hotly-contested game. Texas hasn’t been good on the defensive end of the floor during SEC play and Georgia has the defense to keep itself in games even when the shot isn’t falling.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
