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Betting Stuff: Iowa has a high floor in 2024 because of its defensive continuity
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Iowa returns a sixth-year senior quarterback who has started a College Football Playoff game, it will have maybe its oldest defense ever, and it is finally free from the unbearable dead weight that shackled its offense for years and years under head coach Kirk Ferentz.
In recent years, the Hawkeyes have been a Midwest annoyance. A team capable of producing double-digit-win seasons with ease thanks to the proficiency of its defense, yet one that consistently failed to look the part because of the man calling plays for the offense. Call it nepotism or indifference or whatever, Brian Ferentz — son of the coach — long outstayed his welcome in Iowa City until he was finally removed from his post at the end of the 2023 season.
Iowa hired Tim Lester to serve as the new offensive coordinator. In February, he promised the offense would be “disciplined” and “aggressive.” Lester’s previous experience provides some reason for optimism about the way Iowa will look in the post-Brian Ferentz era.
Hope springs anew in Iowa City. And that hope is strong enough that Iowa looks like a Playoff possibility in 2024.
My colleague, Connor O’Gara, has Iowa making the CFP as the No. 10 seed this season. In a recurring series running down each of his picks to make the 12-team Playoff, O’Gara makes the case for Iowa given its schedule and its defense.
On defense, 17 players saw at least 100 snaps last season. Fourteen of them return. Iowa did nothing in the transfer portal on the defensive side of the football, but it didn’t need to. Within that group of 14 returning defenders, Iowa’s defense boasts the following:
- 466 FBS appearances
- 178 FBS starts
- 1,461 tackles
There’s old, there’s Bo Nix, and then there’s the 2024 Iowa Hawkeyes defense.
This group is going to be obnoxiously good. And, yes, Iowa has to replace do-everything defensive back Cooper DeJean — a first-round NFL Draft pick — but the Hawkeyes have another NFL-caliber corner still on the roster in Sebastian Castro. Outside of DeJean, 2 defensive linemen need replacing. That’s it. The heart of the unit is intact with linebackers Jay Higgins and Nick Jackson (281 combined tackles in 2023) back.
Iowa has led the nation in defensive efficiency in each of the last 2 seasons and 3 of the last 4. That’s especially remarkable when you consider Iowa’s defense faced the fourth-most plays in the FBS last year.
The offense turned it over 22 times (tied for 108th) and converted third downs at the fifth-worst rate in the country. Defenses don’t like quick-change scenarios or short rests. Iowa’s defense was intimate with both last season.
That team won 10 games.
Is it too much to ask Iowa to lead the nation in defensive efficiency for a third consecutive season? Perhaps. Though with Phil Parker coordinating the unit, anything is possible. Bill Connelly’s SP+ projections say Iowa has the No. 2 defense in the country entering the year.
If the offense is just an average offense, Iowa can win 10 games again.
ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Hawkeyes a 7.4% chance to make the CFP and a 0.9% chance to win the Big Ten.
At DraftKings, the Hawkeyes are +600 to make the Playoff (14.3% implied odds) and +4000 to win the Big Ten (2.4% implied odds).
Most of the major US sportsbooks are in that neighborhood…
- FanDuel: +800 to make the CFP; +4100 to win the B1G
- ESPN Bet: +700 to make the CFP; +4000 to win the B1G
- Caesars: +400 to make the CFP; +3000 to win the B1G
- bet365: +650 to make the CFP; +2800 to win the B1G
Since landing at No. 5 in the final CFP rankings of 2015, Iowa has yet to finish higher than 15th in the decisive CFP rankings handed down by the selection committee. That would obviously need to change in order for the school to grab at at-large bid.
And that’s where the offensive improvement has to factor in. For years, the Hawkeyes failed the eyeball test. Unless you were the parent of a player on the team or a punter, watching the grass grow in your front yard has often been more entertaining than watching Iowa possess the football. If the Hawkeyes are to make the CFP without winning the Big Ten, they’ll need to be easier on the eyes.
We don’t know exactly how the committee will value everything in a new 12-team landscape, but we probably know enough to confidently say an offense that averages an FBS-worst 3.9 yards per play isn’t getting an invite to the party.
Iowa’s win total is 7.5 everywhere but at Caesars, where it’s a flat 8. Based on what returns with the defense, that 7.5 seems too low. Iowa outperformed its preseason total by 1.5 games in 2 of the last 3 years (both 10-win seasons).
I’d be looking at the over on FanDuel’s win total (currently -122) and take FanDuel’s price for Iowa to make the CFP. Nine or 10 regular-season wins in the Big Ten will be enough to get it done.
If you’re completely out on Iowa, DraftKings is currently offering the under on Iowa’s win total at +130.
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Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
