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All around the country, fall camps are starting and talking season is drawing toward a close. In less than a month, football will be played and we’ll start working our way toward the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff.
In the new expanded field, conference championships will still hold weight. The 4 highest-ranked league champions will receive a top-4 seed in the field and the first-round bye that comes with it. Should a team play for its conference title game, lose, and make the CFP anyway (think Georgia in 2023), that school would need to play 17 total games to lift a national title. That’s quite the season.
Coaches will want the first-round bye. There’s been some talk this offseason about eliminating conference title games but most coaches who have gone on record have advocated for that game to survive. It’s the fairest way still of determining a league champion.
In 2024, we should get some classics.
Here’s who I’ve got playing in each of the Core 4 games, and who I’m picking in the preseason to win each.
ACC
Championship game prediction: Clemson vs. Miami
The Tigers are +120 to make the ACC title game at DraftKings, while the Hurricanes are +200.
Florida State has the shortest odds of anyone to make the game, but I’m hesitant to back the Seminoles given all the changes in personnel year-over-year. DJ Uiagalelei is a fine quarterback, but Oregon State faded in the Pac-12 title race last season and Uiagalelei played a role in that. In back-to-back losses to Washington and Oregon, he completed 52% of his passes with 3 picks and just 1 touchdown. Florida State has SMU, Clemson, Duke, and Miami in the span of a month, and I think that stretch will produce at least 2 losses.
I trust Clemson to sort out the defense. If quarterback Cade Klubnik can provide a little more consistency, the Tigers are the safest pick. It feels more than a little counter-intuitive to knock Florida State for a perceived weakness at the quarterback spot and then back Clemson in spite of what could be the exact same thing, but I wonder if the dial on a Garrett Riley-led offense has gone from a little over-hyped to a tad under the radar. They need to be more explosive to take the burden off Klubnik. But this Tigers team brings back 7 linemen who started at least 2 games last year, their top rusher, their top tight end, and 4 of the top 5 wideouts.
Miami has the clearest path to the title game — and a puncher’s chance at going unbeaten. Virginia Tech and Florida State are at home. The road slate has Cal, Louisville, Georgia Tech, and Syracuse. Led by Cam Ward and Damien Martinez, Miami should have a top-15 offense.
Winner: Clemson (+390 via FanDuel)
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Big 12
Championship game prediction: Oklahoma State vs. Utah
Oklahoma State is +250 to make the Big 12 title game at DraftKings. Utah is the favorite at +120.
I am firmly in wait-and-see mode with quarterback Avery Johnson at Kansas State. Arizona has a legitimate star duo at quarterback and receiver, but a ton to replace elsewhere. West Virginia is a solid darkhorse team. But the Utes and Cowboys are clear frontrunners at the top of the league in my view.
The Utes won 8 games last season in spite of what felt like 87 scholarship players getting injured. Now, they have their 2-time conference-championship-winning quarterback to lead them once again. Between Brant Kuithe’s return and a quietly strong portal haul, Utah could have its best passing attack of the Cam Rising era. Defensively, they’re as safe a bet as any. Utah gets Arizona and BYU at home, and it’ll probably be the favorite in 8 of its 9 conference games.
Oklahoma State returns every player of significance on offense, including Doak Walker-winning running back Ollie Gordon II. What was an inexperienced defense last season returns mostly intact. The Cowboys get Utah at home on Sept. 21, and they’re 32-7 at home since 2018. I like the Pokes to beat the Utes in Stillwater, but just ask Oregon how tough it is to play Kyle Whittingham twice in a season.
Winner: Utah (+320 via DraftKings)
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CLAIM OFFERBig Ten
Championship game prediction: Oregon vs. Ohio State
Another regular-season showdown that will preview a conference title rematch. In the case of the Big Ten, I like Oregon to beat the Buckeyes in the regular season and then again to claim the Big Ten title. Dan Lanning’s team was a quarter away from a conference championship last season, and, by extension, a quarter away from a College Football Playoff. That loss will serve the holdovers well enough, and Lanning pressed every button correctly this offseason as he filled in the pieces.
At every position, Oregon is loaded. No questions exist at running back, at receiver, at tight end, on the offensive line, on the interior of the defensive line, on the edge, or in the secondary. Oregon returned major contributors (wideout Tez Johnson, edge Jordan Burch, tackles Ajani Cornelius and Josh Conerly Jr.) and scored huge portal wins in areas of need (quarterback Dillon Gabriel, defensive tackle Derrick Harmon, corner Jabbar Muhammad).
The Ducks and Buckeyes are awfully similar in that regard. Very few on-paper weaknesses, massive offseason acquisitions, and equally important retention.
Ohio State could sleepwalk through most of its schedule and still make the conference title game because it is just that much more talented than the Michigan States, Purdues, Northwesterns, and Indianas of the Big Ten.
I don’t trust Ryan Day much right now. Though to be completely fair, Dan Lanning also has a big-game question to answer (Oregon State in 2022, Washington 3 times). But these are the 2 most talented teams in the league with very few concerns on either side. As such, they’re the overwhelming favorites to make the Big Ten title game, with Ohio State at -240 and Oregon at -125 on DraftKings.
Winner: Oregon (+225 via ESPN Bet)
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SEC
Championship game prediction: Texas vs. Georgia
I picked a Texas-Georgia rematch on my preseason SEC ballot, and it still feels like the safest pick in the new-look SEC. The Bulldogs (-170) and Longhorns (-110) are the overwhelming favorites to advance to the league’s title game at DraftKings.
I see Texas taking the regular-season meeting in Austin on Oct. 19, but I see Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs exacting revenge in the league’s title game. Similar to Oklahoma State’s potential plight with Kyle Whittingham, I don’t envy the staff that has to try and beat Smart twice in the span of a few months.
Perhaps some are considering fading Georgia a bit with everything swirling around the program. With all of Georgia’s off-field mistakes at the forefront, Smart has a level of heat on him lately that is foreign and probably pretty uncomfortable. But once the ball is kicked off and the season gets rolling, the attention will shift back to the machine that is Georgia football. This is one of the most talent-rich teams in the country, coached by one of the best football coaches in the country, and quarterbacked by one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Sometimes the simple answer is the right answer.
That being said, I like Texas to win the matchup on Oct. 19 in a real show of force. Steve Sarkisian has, at least on paper, built a team that looks pretty comparable to the rest of the SEC’s ruling class. Texas took that final step in its rebuild under Sark last season, closing out tight ballgames, and made the program’s first CFP appearance as a result. While I’m not the biggest Quinn Ewers fan, it’s hard to deny what he has to work with. Cedric Baxter Jr. looks like the next great Texas tailback. The offensive line is helmed by future first-round tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. And the receiver room will be just fine with Isaiah Bond and Silas Bolden. I love UTSA transfer Trey Moore to be a difference-maker for Texas in an area of need (improved pass-rush).
Something to monitor: In an interesting twist, Georgia was handed quite the regular-season draw. There are 6 SEC teams in the preseason SP+ top 11. Texas is 1 of them. And the Longhorns will only play 1 of the other 5 teams. Georgia faces 3 of them — all on the road. (Alabama plays 3 of them as well. LSU and Ole Miss each face 2. Missouri plays 1.)
Winner: Georgia (+200 ESPN Bet)
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Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
