Betting Stuff: Picks, previews for every non-CFP bowl game

This promises to be one of the most insightful postseasons in recent college football history. The 12-team College Football Playoff is here and it has already changed everything. How much more change will the next month of football bring about? The Playoff has its own set of questions to answer, but its impact on the non-CFP bowl season might be profound. How many teams show up? How many fanbases show out? With the transfer portal currently open and players forced to make decisions now, everything is in limbo. Rosters are uncertain. Coaches are being forced to split their time between game prep and portal recruiting.

Including the 12 teams that made the CFP, 84 programs are participating in the postseason. There will be 4 first-round CFP games, 4 quarterfinal CFP games, 2 semifinal games, a national championship, and 36 non-CFP bowl games over the next month.

We’ll pick the CFP games later in the week. Here are picks for every bowl game.

Frisco Bowl: No. 25 Memphis vs. West Virginia (Dec. 17)

Memphis has a top-20 scoring offense (35.2 PPG), a run game that ranks 21st in EPA per attempt, and a senior quarterback with 13,984 career passing yards. I believe the Tigers have an advantage when they hold the football, and the tendency for WVU quarterback Garrett Greene to be careless (21 sacks, 11 interceptions) might give the Tigers an edge in field position as well.

PICK: Memphis -4.5 (-110 via ESPN Bet)

Boca Raton Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. James Madison (Dec. 18)

Western Kentucky has gotten absolutely hammered by transfer portal entries — particularly on the offensive and defensive lines. The Hilltoppers are coming off a 52-12 rout at the hands of Jacksonville State in the CUSA conference title game where they gave up 386 rushing yards and 5 scores. James Madison was one of the better statistical teams in the country this season, ranking 13th nationally in Game on Paper’s opponent-adjusted net EPA-per-play metric. They run the ball well enough and have a stout defense.

PICK: James Madison -6.5 (-114 via FanDuel)

LA Bowl: Cal vs. No. 24 UNLV (Dec. 18)

UNLV will be without its head coach — Barry Odom left to take the Purdue job — but Cal will be without its starting quarterback. Fernando Mendoza is in the transfer portal. Cal also lost its top receiver to the portal. The offensive line is banged up and Mendoza’s backup got hurt in the season finale. UNLV was the more successful team throughout the regular season, and I think it’s in a better spot here to have a positive bowl showing. The Rebels stop the run with the best of them and have a dynamic ground game to lean on.

PICK: UNLV +1.5 (-118 via FanDuel)

New Orleans Bowl: Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston (Dec. 19)

Sam Houston has seen a bevy of players hit the transfer portal in the wake of their head coach’s departure, but a number of them have said they plan to play in the bowl game. This is the school’s first bowl appearance since jumping to the FBS, so motivation doesn’t seem to be lacking. Georgia Southern is just better. The Eagles won 6 of their final 8 games, which included victories over Marshall, James Madison, and South Alabama.

PICK: Georgia Southern -5.5 (-110 via FanDuel)

Cure Bowl: Ohio vs. Jacksonville State (Dec. 20)

Ohio won its first conference title since 1968 with a 38-3 stomping of Miami (OH) in the MAC Championship Game. The Bobcats closed as a 2.5-point dog, but looked like a vastly superior team on the field. They ran for 232 yards while limiting Miami to 62, they threw for 235 yards and 2 scores while limiting Miami to 127 and a pick, and they ran up 32 first downs while allowing only 11. Quarterback Parker Navarro has been excellent to close out the season, doing it with his legs and his arm. Ohio has one of the better run defenses in the FBS, so Jacksonville State will find it hard to replicate the field day it had on the ground when it last took the field. The Gamecocks have also seen both starting corners, both starting safeties, and their best edge player hit the portal.

PICK: Ohio -3 (-115 via DraftKings)

Gasparilla Bowl: Tulane vs. Florida (Dec. 20)

Tulane has been good about limiting the explosive pass plays this season, and DJ Lagway desperately wants to push the ball downfield. Tulane has also been exceptional when putting the ball in the air itself. How much of that changes in the absence of Darian Mensah? Tulane’s starting quarterback hit the transfer portal. Ty Thompson (who is also going into the portal) will start and despite his age, he’s still unseasoned. Florida has SEC size and athleticism, the likes of which Tulane has not seen all year. And the Green Wave have not done well when they’ve stepped up in class.

PICK: Florida -13.5 (-115 via ESPN Bet)

Myrtle Beach Bowl: Coastal Carolina vs. UTSA (Dec. 23)

A theme you’ll find here… Coastal Carolina has seen a number of key starters opt for the transfer portal, including quarterback Ethan Vasko. The Roadrunners won 3 of their final 4 games, with their lone loss coming against eventual AAC champ Army. The Chanticleers lost 5 of their final 7. UTSA has lost close this season while Coastal Carolina has lost big in all 6 of its games. The Roadrunners also stop the run at a high level, swarming ball-carriers and getting knock-back at the line of scrimmage. They don’t run it with any consistency, instead relying on quarterback Owen McCown, who ranks 18th nationally in EPA. All signs point to UTSA in this one.

PICK: UTSA -8.5 (-105 via Caesars)

Potato Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State (Dec. 23)

Both teams will see backup quarterbacks take the field as both have seen their starters enter the transfer portal. Fresno State has lost 3 of 4. Northern Illinois has won 3 of its last 4. The absences on the Fresno State side are so significant that even though my numbers lean toward the Bulldogs as a 3-point dog, I will play the favorite.

PICK: Northern Illinois -2.5 (-122 via FanDuel)

Hawaii Bowl: South Florida vs. San Jose State (Dec. 24)

South Florida has to make a significant trip to get to this game. That is probably worth considering. SJSU will have the best player on the field if Nick Nash plays and whether it’s Byrum Brown or backup Bryce Archie, USF will probably have spotty quarterback play. South Florida has struggled all year to slow opposing pass games (84th in EPA per dropback faced) and San Jose State wants to throw the ball all over the yard. Nash — who led the FBS in catches, yards, and touchdowns — had a legitimate case to win the Biletnikoff Award as the nation’s best pass-catcher. I don’t see how South Florida keeps him or the rest of the aerial attack in front of it.

PICK: San Jose State -4.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Sports Bowl: Pitt vs. Toledo (Dec. 26)

The time off was crucial for Pitt quarterback Eli Holstein, who powered a 7-0 start but was injured in 3 different games over the final month of the season. He left the Louisville game with an air cast on his leg and watched the remainder of the regular-season finale on crutches. Pitt’s backup quarterback has left for the transfer portal, leaving a walk-on to either start in Holstein’s place or back him up. Coach Pat Narduzzi thinks Holstein will play. I was not a believer in the Panthers when they were unbeaten, and I think Toledo’s defense can turn this into a tight contest. The uncertainty surrounding Pitt’s quarterback situation creates an interesting buy opportunity.

PICK: Toledo +7.5 (-115 via FanDuel)

Rate Bowl: Rutgers vs. Kansas State (Dec. 26)

I think Avery Johnson and DJ Giddens have a field day against this ultra-bad Rutgers run defense. The Scarlet Knights are 130th out of 134 FBS teams in EPA per run faced. They don’t generate havoc or stuff plays, and they don’t win on early downs. Kansas State should be able to do whatever it wants to do offensively. Of course, Giddens might not play after declaring for the NFL Draft. I quite like Giddens’ backup, Dylan Edwards, and it might not be the worst thing to let him get revved up against this kind of defense to see if he can be the guy in 2025.

PICK: Kansas State -6.5 (-118 via FanDuel)

68 Ventures Bowl: Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green (Dec. 26)

Bowling Green has an outstanding defense while Arkansas State has been treading water on that side of the football all season. The matchup nightmare here is Bowling Green tight end Harold Fannin Jr., who has 1,342 receiving yards on the season and is within striking distance of the FBS single-season record for a tight end. Arkansas State ranks 118th nationally in passing success rate allowed and has given up some big games to tight ends throughout the year.

PICK: Bowling Green -6.5 (-120 via FanDuel)

Armed Forces Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Navy (Dec. 27)

Oklahoma was devastated by injuries to its wide receiver room during the regular season. Since, starting quarterback Jackson Arnold has hit the transfer portal alongside starting tight end Bauer Sharp. This was a difficult season for Oklahoma and I wonder if everyone is just ready to turn the page. I’m also not sure what we’ll get from Michael Hawkins Jr., who was benched after a disastrous day against South Carolina. He posted a 0.1 QBR in that game and we’ve seen him throw just 5 passes since. Last we saw Navy, it was pouncing on Army and spoiling the Black Knights’ bid for a program-record 12th win. Blake Horvath ran for 204 yards in the win over Army and he’ll seriously stress Oklahoma’s run defense.

PICK: Navy +7.5 (-105 via FanDuel)

Birmingham Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt (Dec. 27)

The Commodores are 8-4 against the spread this season, including 7-2 as an underdog. The 2 ATS losses came during the 3-game outright losing streak to close the season, but they were also against 1 Playoff team and another team that probably should have been in the Playoff. As Vanderbilt ran out of steam to close out the year, quarterback Diego Pavia played hurt. With almost a month between the last regular-season game and the bowl game, the Dores should be plenty fresh. With a couple of key departures to the transfer portal already from Georgia Tech’s offense, Vanderbilt as a dog is once again the play for me.

PICK: Vanderbilt +2.5 (-105 via DraftKings)

Liberty Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Arkansas (Dec. 27)

The Attrition Bowl, as it shall henceforth be known, is impossible to pick. Texas Tech will be without both of its coordinators and its starting quarterback. Arkansas is among the FBS leaders in portal entries and is down to 6 scholarship offensive linemen who are expected to be available for the game. The offense will look vastly different, with 3 of the 4 pass-catchers with at least 20 receptions this season expected to miss the game either due to opt-out or portal entry. That includes top receiver Andrew Armstrong. We still don’t know if stud Tech tailback Tahj Brooks plans to play in the game. If he doesn’t, I think you have to back the Razorbacks.

PICK: Arkansas -1 (-105 via BetMGM)

Holiday Bowl: No. 21 Syracuse vs. Washington State (Dec. 27)

Washington State and Syracuse both have top-20 marks in opponent-adjusted EPA per play this season. With Washington State quarterback John Mateer (seventh in EPA) and Syracuse quarterback Kyle McCord (second in EPA), the potential for a high-flying, run-it-up game was there. 

But Mateer has opted for the transfer portal, a likely eventuality after Wazzu offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle left to take the Oklahoma job.

Washington State’s defense was poor this season, and it has already lost a starting cornerback, a starting defensive tackle, and its starting running back to the transfer portal. Syracuse coach Fran Brown doesn’t expect any opt-outs from his team, and the portal has thus far been kind. The Orange closed out their season with 3 consecutive wins and a program-defining victory over Miami. One side is trending up. One is not. Bettors who jumped on the early number (around 6) stand to benefit from the Mateer portal entry, but I still think Syracuse is the play.

PICK: Syracuse -10.5 (-114 via FanDuel)

Las Vegas Bowl: USC vs. Texas A&M (Dec. 27)

Both of these programs have seen high-profile quarterbacks hit the transfer portal, but neither player was starting by season’s end anyway. Texas A&M has been hit particularly hard by the transfer portal, thinning out a roster that was already a little banged up to begin with. This comes down to the quarterback you trust more. A&M’s Marcel Reed has struggled to move the ball consistently through the air. USC’s Jayden Maiava is a gunslinger, but he can pose problems when he’s clicking. Texas A&M leaned on its defensive ability to create havoc and win on the edges, but those edges won’t be playing in the game. USC will be shorthanded at tailback, but I think Lincoln Riley has a plan to create some explosives through the air against a secondary that will give them up.

PICK: USC +3.5 (-104 via FanDuel)

Fenway Bowl: UConn vs. North Carolina (Dec. 28)

North Carolina is going through a period of significant change and might be without its best player. Tailback Omarion Hampton is heading to the NFL, but it’s not presently clear if he plans to play in the bowl game. If he sits, UNC’s absences become an even bigger storyline. UConn, meanwhile, has mostly staved off the portal and should enter into this matchup with plenty of motivation. The Huskies opened the year 1-2 but closed the regular season with wins in 7 of their final 9 games. Three of the 4 losses came by 7 points or less (all against ACC schools). The Huskies have a more-than-capable defense and several quality options at tailback.

PICK: UConn +2.5 (-115 via BetMGM)

Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College vs. Nebraska (Dec. 28)

Nebraska will be playing in its first bowl game since the 2016 season. But the Huskers have lost several key pieces of the defense to the transfer portal and saw defensive coordinator Tony White leave for Florida State. Boston College sparked a 3-1 close to the season with its quarterback move to Grayson James.

PICK: Boston College +2.5 (-105 via BetMGM)

New Mexico Bowl: Louisiana vs. TCU (Dec. 28)

TCU has found itself in quite a few shootouts this season and I think this will be another one. The defense ranks 98th in opponent-adjusted EPA per play. But the Horned Frogs closed the year on a high note thanks to an offense that found its groove. Louisiana’s defense has struggled all the same, and that came to a head in the Sun Belt title game when Marshall rolled to a 31-3 win while the Ragin’ Cajuns played without their starting quarterback. Ben Wooldridge could be back for this one, and if he is, the quarterback matchup will be one of the better of the entire bowl slate. I think this could be a back-and-forth game.

PICK: Louisiana +13 (-110 via Caesars)

Pop-Tarts Bowl: No. 18 Iowa State vs. No. 13 Miami (Dec. 28)

I wonder if Miami is lethargic out of the gates in this game. The Hurricanes flirted with danger for weeks before face-planting at Georgia Tech. They smacked an awful Wake Forest team and then lost by 4 at Syracuse to get shut out of the conference title game. The secondary has gotten torched repeatedly, and that’s a major area of concern against Rocco Becht and Iowa State. ISU was disappointing in the Big 12 title game, but it still has a chance to improve on the best season in program history. Becht pilots an offense that ranks 25th in yards per dropback and can break off chunk plays in bunches. Miami’s defense is 41st nationally in EPA per dropback faced and ranks in the 11th percentile for explosive play percentage allowed. Becht apparently had suitors across the country who wanted him to jump into the transfer portal, but he swatted them away to remain with the Cyclones. That says something about where this Cyclone team is, I think. I also don’t trust Miami.

PICK: Iowa State +4 (-115 via ESPN Bet)

Arizona Bowl: Miami (OH) vs. Colorado State (Dec. 28)

A 38-3 loss to Ohio in the MAC title game is hard to square. The defense went into the game looking like the strength and it got flattened. Colorado State has won 6 of its last 7, and the offense has reoriented nicely since losing star receiver Tory Horton to an injury. Either Miami returns to form and this becomes a tight, low-scoring affair or Miami’s defense flounders again and Colorado State wins outright. Either way, I’m backing the dogs.

PICK: Colorado State +3 (-115 via BetMGM)

Military Bowl: East Carolina vs. NC State (Dec. 28)

The last time these 2 teams met, NC State escaped Greenville with a 21-20 win. East Carolina has gotten up for each and every game against the Wolfpack of late. They’ve won 10 of the last 19 in the series. East Carolina has actually been better this season, so I’m rolling with the Pirates in a game they’ll want. NC State lost longtime DC Tony Gibson to Marshall, its top wide receiver to the transfer portal, and might be without a couple of key defenders. ECU removed the interim tag from Blake Harrell, making him the full-time coach after a 4-1 close to the year.

PICK: East Carolina +5.5 (-110 via Caesars)

Alamo Bowl: No. 17 BYU vs. No. 23 Colorado (Dec. 28)

Though both teams are from the Big 12, the Alamo Bowl remains a Pac-12 legacy bowl and we’re getting one of the better matchups of the bowl season as a result. Colorado closed out the second regular season of Deion Sanders’ tenure ranked 17th nationally in net opponent-adjusted EPA per play. Whatever we thought of Colorado in the preseason, the Buffs made certain their narrative would be rooted in reality with their play. The defense was significantly improved. Travis Hunter shut down one side of the field and the defensive line won more often than not. BYU ran out of steam late in the season and now hits a Colorado team that has been surging. All of the Buffs stars are playing; the Heisman Trophy winner is looking to go out with a bang. Colorado will have the best players on the field, and they seem to be motivated.

PICK: Colorado -2.5 (-122 via FanDuel)

Independence Bowl: Louisiana Tech vs. No. 22 Army (Dec. 28)

Louisiana Tech slides into the postseason at 5-7 because of the transfer portal. With so many losses, Marshall, Army’s original opponent, had to pull out. Army coach Jeff Monken still has more than enough time to prepare for a new opponent. Louisiana Tech’s run defense is outstanding, but the offense is a net negative, ranking 117th nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA per play and giving the ball away 21 times. Army should roll

PICK: Army -16.5 (-108 via FanDuel)

Music City Bowl: Iowa vs. No. 19 Missouri (Dec. 30)

Both teams have had significant opt-outs from NFL talent. Iowa will be without running back Kaleb Johnson and his 1,537 rushing yards. Mizzou will be without Luther Burden III and right tackle Armand Membou. But the Hawkeyes have some concerns at quarterback and Brady Cook will be playing his final game for Mizzou. I think that is ultimately the difference.

PICK: Mizzou -3 (-115 via DraftKings)

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ReliaQuest Bowl: No. 11 Alabama vs. Michigan (Dec. 31)

On paper, this is no contest. Alabama has a combustible offense and Michigan has been merely average on defense while being a little too inviting to the big play in the pass game. Michigan doesn’t have an offense to play catch-up and Alabama has the tools to race out to an early lead. I don’t want to over-complicate this. Alabama expects to have its top guys; Jalen Milroe and Ryan Williams are enough to beat this Michigan team. I think the Wolverines got up for the Ohio State game; I don’t know how much is left.

PICK: Alabama -10 (-110 via ESPN Bet)

Sun Bowl: Louisville vs. Washington (Dec. 31)

Tyler Shough and Ja’Corey Brooks have opted out for Louisville. Washington hasn’t dealt with any significant opt-outs or major portal defections. But the Huskies’ strength has been its pass defense and I expect Louisville to lean heavily on running backs Isaac Brown and Duke Watson.

PICK: Louisville -2.5 (-105 via Caesars)

Citrus Bowl: No. 15 South Carolina vs. No. 20 Illinois (Dec. 31)

Pat Bryant won’t play in the bowl for Illinois, and that’s a blow. Otherwise, most of the key names seem to still be in the mix. South Carolina closed out the regular season with 6 straight wins. We know what to expect from the Gamecocks, who rank 35th nationally in net opponent-adjusted EPA per play. Illinois is less of a known. The Illini are 70th in net adjusted EPA per play, and they’ve been poor against top competition this season. Illinois has played 4 teams that currently rank in the top 35 in SP+; it is 1-3 in those games. Against Penn State, Michigan, Oregon, and Minnesota — the aforementioned top-35 opponents — Illinois averaged just 4.7 yards per play and a ghastly 20.9 yards per point. In all 3 games against Penn State, Michigan, and Oregon, the Illini posted a negative EPA per play and a single-digit explosive play rate, per Game on Paper. South Carolina will be the next best team the Illini have faced behind Oregon, and the Ducks completely shut this offense down.

PICK: South Carolina -9.5 (-105 via Caesars)

Texas Bowl: Baylor vs. LSU (Dec. 31)

LSU will be without both of its starting offensive tackles, its starting tight end, and a starting receiver. Garrett Nussmeier is good, but I’m not sure I trust LSU much at this point. They lost 3 in a row late in the year and Baylor comes in with significant motivation. The Bears closed the regular season out with 6 straight wins. Quarterback Sawyer Robertson blossomed, and he has shown an ability to hurt defenses with his legs at times during the year.

PICK: Baylor +1.5 (-110 via FanDuel)

TaxSlayer Bowl: Duke vs. No. 14 Ole Miss (Jan. 2)

At full strength, Ole Miss shuts down the best offenses. Duke is far from a good offense. The Blue Devils closed the regular season 112th nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA per play. The run game was atrocious all year, so they leaned on Maalik Murphy in the pass game and posted a 44/56 split between run plays and pass plays. 

Murphy has entered the transfer portal, leaving Duke with Henry Belin IV, who threw 1 pass this year. The 6-foot-3 passer has 36 career pass attempts across 3 years with the Blue Devils. In a spot start last season against NC State, Belin completed 4 of 12 passes for 107 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception. 

Duke was protective of him that day. But the Blue Devils just don’t have the run game this year to play a ground-and-pound kind of game. They’ve been held under 100 total rushing yards in 5 consecutive games and in 8 of their 12 total games this season. Breaking through against Ole Miss — fifth nationally in rushing success rate allowed — seems unlikely.  

PICK: Ole Miss -14.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

First Responder Bowl: North Texas vs. Texas State (Jan. 3)

Mean Green interior offensive linemen Jett Duncan and Leke Asenuga suffered late-season injuries. North Texas also lost starting tackle Larry Moore midway through the year and saw starting center Tyler Morris enter the transfer portal. Tight end Oscar Hammond, wideout DT Sheffield, and quarterback Chandler Morris have all also entered the transfer portal. Without their top quarterback, UNT seems likely to turn to freshman Drew Mestemaker. Morris threw for 3,774 yards and 31 touchdowns this season while Mestemaker attempted 5 total passes. Texas State is the better, more complete team.

PICK: Texas State -9.5 (-115 via FanDuel)

Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech (Jan. 3)

Kyron Drones and his backup, Collin Schlee, both ended the year injured for Virginia Tech. It doesn’t sound as if VT is expecting Drones to be available, which would put either Schlee or Pop Watson in line to start at quarterback. The Hokies have also seen several starters hit the portal (2 offensive linemen, 2 in the secondary) and will be without defensive end Antwaun Powell-Ryland (opt-out). Minnesota is in a much better spot.

PICK: Minnesota -6.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

Bahamas Bowl: Buffalo vs. Liberty (Jan. 4)

Buffalo’s offense is remarkably challenged, but it does 2 things exceptionally well on defense and both of those things will matter in this matchup. First, the Bulls generate a ton of havoc. With quarterback Kaidon Salter in the transfer portal, Liberty will be turning to a third-year sophomore with little in the way of game experience. Liberty might be looking to lean on its ground game even more, but the Bulls actually rank in the top 25 in EPA per run faced. Buffalo won its final 4. Liberty went 3-3 down the stretch after a 5-0 start.

PICK: Buffalo +1.5 (-115 via FanDuel)