Ad Disclosure
We have a good one in Norman on Saturday. The first SEC conference game for the Sooners takes place against a familiar face. Josh Heupel returns to Norman, where a warm reception likely awaits. At least until the ball is kicked off. Heupel might not be embraced for very long considering what he’s bringing with him to Norman.
“It’s hard to say anyone is playing better in the country right now than Tennessee,” Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables said on Tuesday.
The sixth-ranked Volunteers (3-0) are currently a 7-point road favorite over the 15th-ranked Sooners (3-0). DraftKings has the total at 57.5. The Sooners are +215 on the moneyline.
ESPN’s College GameDay will be in town. The game is scheduled for a night kick on ABC with Kirk Herbstreit on the call. The stars will be out. The spotlight will be squarely fixed on Owen Field.
Here are a few things I’m thinking about as we approach the game.
Will Oklahoma sell out in the run game?
You can only play who’s on your schedule, right? Tennessee has played what FEI considers the 118th toughest schedule. Still the Volunteers have mauled everyone put in front of them thus far. The offense has scored 191 points. The defense has allowed 6 points. (NC State’s touchdown came on a pick-6.)
Tennessee hasn’t had to deviate too far from its base to run over from teams. Remove quarterback scrambles and Tennessee has called 130 run plays in 3 games, per PFF. Quarterbacks have 106 dropbacks. That’s a 55% called run rate. The Volunteers’ 7.0 yards per carry ranks fifth in the country. They’ve been successful on 48.6% of their rushing attempts, per game on paper. Dylan Sampson has gone for 357 yards and 9 scores on 45 carries and DeSean Bishop (10.1 yards per carry) has been the thunder behind Sampson’s lightning.
Nico Iamaleava steals the spotlight because he’s the young quarterback who can bomb 50 yards downfield with the flick of a wrist — which is not to take anything away from the passer; he deserves the attention, he’s awesome — but Tennessee is throttling teams with good, old-fashioned bully ball. The Vols are destroying opponents at the line of scrimmage and using that to open up things elsewhere.
My first question for Oklahoma is this: do the Sooners believe they have to commit extra bodies to take that away? Or do they believe the degree of Tennessee’s proficiency can be somewhat explained away by the level of competition? This Oklahoma defense will be the best one Iamaleava has faced. The unit is better than the Iowa defense Tennessee faced a year ago. Two years of working against Jeff Lebby’s offensive system is good prep work for Josh Heupel; Iowa looked unsure of how to defend some of the zone concepts it was confronted with in the bowl game. Oklahoma won’t be confused about how to line up or fit when Tennessee hits it with RPO.
Tennessee has been able to just overwhelm teams at the line of scrimmage and hasn’t had to move horizontally to create space. The Vols have gotten knock-back running right at teams. Oklahoma (ninth in EPA per rush) has a formidable front seven that should be able to counter that. The interior has size, and defensive end R Mason Thomas is coming off a game in which he had 3 tackles for loss.
Does defensive coordinator Zac Alley want 1 of his safeties to load the box and provide more run help. Does Oklahoma feel it has to sell out to stop the run and put the game on Iamaleava’s arm? Robert Spears-Jennings (88.6 grade) is currently the SEC’s second-best safety in coverage, per PFF. And Billy Bowman Jr. (83.9) is currently the SEC’s second-best safety in run support.
Alley loves to be aggressive in late-down situations, but coaches will often say you have to earn the right to rush the passer. Oklahoma has to have early-down success against Tennessee to get Iamaleava in difficult spots.
Can Tennesse make OU pay for loaded boxes?
Per college football insiders, Tennessee’s 60% success rate on third and fourth downs is the seventh-best of any team in the country through the first 3 weeks of the season. But Iamaleava hasn’t been good under pressure. Per PFF, he’s been pressured on 17 dropbacks, completing 3 of 8 passes for 35 yards with 1 interception and a 35.3 passer grade.
That’s not necessarily something to be discouraged by given Iamaleava’s experience level, but Tennessee will want to protect him a bit on the road. This will be his first true road atmosphere, after all. A neutral game in Charlotte doesn’t really compare to the atmosphere Tennessee will walk into on Saturday. If Oklahoma can force Tennessee off-schedule and bring up third-and-longs, Tennessee’s RPO game is less accessible, and Iamaleava suddenly has to make progression-based reads on the road. Given he just hasn’t had enough time on the field to get comfortable operating in those spots, those could become problematic.
For the Vols, Iamaleava has to make Oklahoma pay if it commits to the run.
Iamaleava has 11 completions that have generated at least 20 yards so far this season. Five of those came in the opener against Chattanooga and only 4 of those pass plays have been on throws that traveled at least 20 yards in the air. Per PFF, Iamaleava has only attempted 11 passes of at least 20 air yards in 3 games. He had an extra light day in the win over Kent State, with the ground game doing the heavy lifting.
This isn’t about whether Iamaleava can make those kinds of throws. We know he can.
Still can’t get over this dime from Nico Iamaleava to Chris Brazzell pic.twitter.com/IXe9FOKGjz
— Vol Report (@AllVolReport) September 16, 2024
And we’ve seen through 3 weeks he can fit balls anywhere he wants to because of his accuracy. Intermediate throws have looked like extended handoffs at times with the velocity and placement he’s shown. He has missed — the first interception against NC State — but not often.
Can Tennessee’s receiver beat Oklahoma’s corners? Dez Malone and Kani Walker have been fair to begin the season. Between them, they’ve allowed 5 receptions on 17 targets, with an average of 7.2 yards a catch and only 8 yards surrendered after the catch.
Dont’e Thornton has been the big-play weapon (24.5 average depth of target, 6.3 yards per route run) while Chris Brazzell II and Bru McCoy have been the go-tos (31 combined targets). Tennessee also has a slot weapon in Squirrel White who can be dangerous when the matchup allows.
Related: Grab one of our TN sports betting promos before the weekend to wager on Tennessee-Oklahoma or any other game on the slate in Week 4.
Can Oklahoma stay on schedule?
Per college football insider, Oklahoma ranks 95th in the country in early downs EPA as well as 94th in the country in third- and fourth-down success rate. The Sooners’ rotating cast of characters on the offensive line has facilitated a slow start to the season for the offense and constantly put second-year man Jackson Arnold under the gun.
The Sooners found a wrinkle to exploit with Arnold in the QB run game against Tulane. Maybe they explore that well a little more in Week 4. Maybe they have to. Against Tennessee, it’s highly likely the gameplan will be to move the pocket, get Arnold on the run, and use quick passing patterns to try and negate Tennessee’s defensive front.
Arnold finished with 97 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground in the 15-point win over Tulane last weekend. He completed 18 of his 29 passes for another 169 yards through the air. For the first time since 2014, OU has gone 3 consecutive games with less than 200 passing yards.
Calls for Arnold to play better have been loud, but the bigger issue in Norman is the offensive line.
Per Sooner Scoop’s George Stoia, OU has used 6 different offensive line configurations in 3 games. The line that has started each game has not been the line that finished the game. Center depth is precarious, and OU has missed SMU transfer Branson Hickman, who started in the opener but hasn’t played since due to a sprained ankle. Hickman and guard Troy Everett might both be available against Tennessee. Everett hasn’t played this season after surgery in the spring. If both are available, OU fans will be happy.
Per game on paper, Tennessee ranks third nationally in rushing success rate allowed. Opponents have averaged 1.8 raw yards per carry against the Tennessee defense.
The Sooners are still searching for a back to emerge. Through 3 games, Arnold’s 159 yards are the most on the team. The last thing offensive coordinator Seth Littrell will want to see is a second-and-8 or a third-and-long. Edge James Pearce Jr. only has 6 quarterback pressures in 3 games but he’s only played 28 snaps as a pass rusher, per PFF. He elicits a healthy amount of fear whenever he lines up across the line of scrimmage.
In the same way OU doesn’t really stand a chance if it can’t stymie the Tennessee run game, things will get hairy if Oklahoma is constantly living off-schedule. The Sooners have struggled to stay ahead of the chains even against lesser teams (116th in success rate) but the defense has been able to bail it out.
Will Jackson Arnold leave more plays on the field?
The Sooners have been harmed by injuries in more ways than one. The receiver room has been hit hard, too. The Sooners lost Jayden Gibson before the season. Jalil Farooq was lost to a broken foot in the opener. Nic Anderson hasn’t played this season. Andrel Anthony had a catch in the opener but hasn’t seen the field since.
Oklahoma unearthed a gem in tight end Bauer Sharp, who has 10 catches for 80 yards and a score in 3 games. Deion Burks (22 catches, 3 scores) has been exactly what OU hoped for. Burks figures to be a heavy factor in the gameplan on Saturday, but he needs help.
Anderson has an important role if he plays. A year ago, Anderson averaged 21 yards a catch and produced 10 touchdowns to tie for the team lead. He made only 38 receptions, but had an average depth of 16 yards on his targets.
Arnold is just 2-for-13 on pass attempts traveling at least 20 air yards this season. He has missed. Oklahoma needs him to connect when plays present themselves against the Volunteers.
What role does tempo play?
To that end, Oklahoma relying too heavily on the vertical pass might have diminishing returns. The Sooners probably have a vested interest in keeping this from turning into a track meet. To this point in the season, both of these teams have played fast and free. Tennessee had 9 first-half possessions against Kent State. The Vols had 7 second-half possessions against NC State before shifting into “kill the clock” mode. Oklahoma is averaging 13 possessions a game and running about 2.5 plays a minute.
Is there more of a desire to play horizontally, move down the field methodically, and control the clock against Tennessee? The Vols are deep on the defensive line, and with concerns up front, shortening this game might hold advantages for the home team.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
