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Week 7 is here. The one we’ve been waiting all year for. The schedule is loaded from start to finish. Here are a handful of storylines to consider before betting on this weekend’s slate of games.
Alabama’s offense is still elite… but
I trust that as a profession, we’ll treat this Alabama loss for what it is and not go completely over the top by calling it some kind of shock to the manhood or anything like that. When Vanderbilt had the football, it played a nearly perfect game with a scheme designed to punish Alabama for playing within its own scheme. The Commodores’ veer option attack put Alabama in constant conflict. When Diego Pavia was asked to make throws, he didn’t miss. Bad loss, to be clear. But it is explainable beyond “transfer portal brought parity” or “Alabama didn’t show up” takes that sort of miss the mark.
Alabama got out-schemed by the Vanderbilt offense. But Alabama also completely outplayed the Vanderbilt defense. The Crimson Tide had a net success rate of plus-15 in the game, per Game on Paper. Alabama averaged 8.6 yards per play and scored touchdowns on all 4 of its red zone possessions. Jalen Milroe had an interception on the opening drive and a fumble on the next-to-last drive; outside of that, Vanderbilt didn’t really stop the Crimson Tide.
Ryan Williams is a huge part of what Alabama has done and will continue to do. The freshman receiver has 7 catches already this season on passes at least 20 yards downfield. (Only 1 FBS receiver has more.) Five of those 7 catches have gone for touchdowns, and he’s averaging 58 yards per play on those 7 catches. Among receivers with at least 10 targets, Williams’ 4.9 yards per route run ranks third. He is the big-play threat, combining world-beating athleticism with remarkable awareness and body control along the boundaries.
There is an issue for someone to potentially exploit.
To this point in the season, Alabama has been explosive on its successful run plays, but it hasn’t necessarily been a successful rushing outfit overall. The Crimson Tide rank 96th nationally in rushing success rate but 25th in EPA per rush. Jam Miller had a 32-yard run and Justice Haynes had a 13-yard run. The other 17 rushing attempts averaged 2.9 yards per play. When Alabama can crease a run, it has the athletes to turn it into a huge gain.
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Nic Scourton is rounding into form
The Purdue transfer has 10 tackles for loss this season. Only 3 FBS players have more. After a so-so start to the season, Scourton has been a monster for the Aggies in consecutive weeks. He had 4 TFLs and 2 sacks in the win over Arkansas, forcing a fumble at a critical juncture in the fourth quarter. He then had 2.5 TFLs and 1.5 sacks this past weekend in the beatdown of Missouri. Eight of his 17 quarterback pressures and 5 of his 10 defensive stops have come in the last 2 weeks.
Against Missouri, Scourton had a rep where he played a read option perfectly and blew up the play. He puts something clinical on tape every time he steps on the field, and he’s starting to get home with more frequency. A&M’s defensive front is not a 1-man show, but if Scourton continues to dominate, A&M is going to be a legitimate threat.
The Aggies are 3-0 in conference play. They have games against Mississippi State, LSU, South Carolina, Auburn, and Texas remaining. Considering Texas and LSU are the only other unbeaten teams in SEC league play right now, it’s probably time to start monitoring the Aggies’ odds of making the SEC title game on DraftKings.
Currently, A&M is priced +135 to make the title game, which carries implied odds of 43%. That seems like a slight overreaction to the SEC results in Week 6. Texas and LSU also have 2 of the 11 highest pass-blocking grades of any team in the country thus far, per PFF. LSU has only allowed 2 sacks while Texas has given up 5.
Pitt’s pain points
Pitt is 5-0 and cracked the AP Top 25 this week. They have blown out Kent State and Youngstown State, and they’ve won fourth-quarter ball games against Cincinnati, West Virginia, and North Carolina. They rank 36th nationally in adjusted net EPA per play. They’re currently sitting 32nd in SP+ and 56th in FEI.
The Panthers feel like a team to fade because they feel like a team that will just be flirting with disaster any given week.
This offense leans toward the pass (55% pass rate on all plays). Quarterback Eli Holstein is completing 65.7% of his passes for 9.1 yards per play with 15 touchdowns and 3 picks. Those are pretty solid numbers. Dig a little deeper and you find concerning signs. Holstein has 15 touchdown passes but only 6 big-time throws (tracked by PFF). He only has 3 interceptions, but he has 9 turnover-worthy plays. Holstein will hold onto the football and he’s playing behind an offensive line with a clear and obvious weakness at right tackle. Ryan Baer has given up the fourth-most pressures of any FBS offensive lineman this season. His pass-blocking grade from PFF is 49.1. Right guard BJ Williams has also given up 12 pressures.
Cal got pressure on Miami quarterback Cam Ward on a third of his drop-backs, per PFF. The Bears blitzed Ward on nearly half his dropbacks. They did the same thing to DJ Uiagalelei in the Week 4 matchup with Florida State. Cal isn’t really getting home (12 sacks in 5 games) but the threat of pressure has been enough. Cal has an FBS-leading 11 interceptions. Cornerback Nohl Williams has 5 of them. Holstein has not been good when pressured.
Any rust from Ewers?
Starting Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers has not played since Sept. 14, when he suffered an oblique injury in the first half of the game against UTSA. Arch Manning has gotten an extended run of action since, which should ultimately only help the Longhorns in the long run by fast-tracking his development. Ewers is still the starter when healthy, and Texas knows it can go to the No. 2 in a pinch and still call everything like normal.
“I thought he looked good coming off the bye,” UT head coach Steve Sarkisian said earlier this week. “I think if anybody benefited from the time off, it was probably him. We’re going to monitor him daily just to kind of see how he continues to progress, but I feel good about how he was [Monday].
“I feel good about him going into Saturday, but that remains to be seen.”
Will there be any rust? Oklahoma’s defense is undoubtedly the strength of the team and OU head coach Brent Venables might try to throw some pressure at Ewers to test his fitness levels early on. The Sooners rank 13th nationally in havoc rate and they’re 14th in rushing success rate. They can get after a quarterback in a number of ways. If Oklahoma can force Texas off-schedule early in the game and set up some third downs when the pre-kickoff adrenaline is still flowing, maybe there’s a momentum-swinging play to be made off Ewers — who was responsible for all 3 turnovers the Longhorns had against OU a year ago.
In that game, Texas killed Oklahoma with easy-access intermediate passes. Oklahoma has largely taken those kinds of throws away with this new defensive setup from Zac Alley. They’re playing extremely aggressively and that has exposed the cornerbacks a little when team’s try to push the ball downfield.
Texas has been winning early downs more often than not this season. The Longhorns have what might be the best offensive line in the country. And Ewers has shown considerable improvement this season in his pocket awareness.
Ewers missed 2 games with an injury last season. In his first game back, he threw a pick but also passed for 317 yards as Texas built a 26-6 lead on TCU going into the fourth quarter. Ewers missed 3 games early in the 2022 season with a shoulder issue before returning against Oklahoma in this same game and leading the Longhorns to a 49-0 win. Ewers threw for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns that day.
Watch the slot
Andy Kotelnicki has a pair of big-play threats at receiver. Liam Clifford is averaging 22.5 yards a catch and Omari Evans is producing 22 yards per catch. Evans had 116 yards and a touchdown against Kent State. Clifford had 107 yards in the win over UCLA last week. With the exception of the Illinois game, Penn State has had a different 100-yard receiver every week. Clifford and Evans have done their damage in the slot. That’s a matchup to watch this week against USC.
The Trojans rank 25th nationally in EPA allowed per dropback. Greedy Vance, the primary slot guy in D’Anton Lynn’s defense, has been exceptional all year, allowing just 1 reception on 6 targets for 15 yards. As a team, USC has only given up 7 pass plays of 20 yards or more all season. Jacobe Covington got burned in the Wisconsin game, but USC has otherwise kept most everything in front of its defense this season.
ATS winners and losers through 6 weeks
Six schools are currently unbeaten against the spread through the first 6 weeks of the season:
- Army (5-0)
- Pitt (5-0)
- BYU (5-0)
- Marshall (5-0)
- Eastern Michigan (5-0)
- Illinois (4-0-1)
Five schools have yet to cover a single spread:
- Kansas (0-6)
- NC State (0-6)
- North Carolina (0-5-1)
- Air Force (0-5)
- Kent State (0-5)
This weekend’s slate of games features 6 matchups between teams that are 4-1 or better against teams that are 1-4 or worse (ATS).
- Eastern Michigan vs. Miami (OH) (1-4)
- BYU vs. Arizona (1-4)
- Illinois vs. Purdue (1-4)
- Ole Miss (5-1) at LSU (1-4)
- Western Kentucky (4-1) vs. UTEP (1-4)
- UNLV (4-1) vs. Utah State (1-4)
From that bunch, I’m looking at the BYU-Arizona game. The Cougars have been 83 points better than the spread across their 5 ATS wins this season, an average of 16.6 points per game. Arizona, meanwhile, has been 11.6 points worse than the spread in its 4 ATS losses. Yes, the Wildcats have a win over a top-10 Utah team on the road, but that game featured a true freshman backup quarterback starting for the Utes. BYU has been a dog 3 times this season and won all 3 games outright. In the 2 games it was favored, it beat the number by double-digits. BYU is a 5.5-point favorite in this game at bet365.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
