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Betting Stuff: Using Pythagorean Expectation to find breakthrough teams in 2025

Published: Feb 10, 2025 · 7:08 PM EST

On Monday, my colleague, Connor O’Gara, claimed that Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze has the hottest seat of any coach throughout the SEC football landscape entering the 2025 season. The honeymoon phase is over, he wrote. And it’s hard to argue. Freeze is 11-14 through his first 2 seasons. Through absurdity, stubborn-headedness, or just sheer dumb luck, Auburn went just 2-6 in conference play last season.

The Tigers went 3-5 against SEC competition the year prior. I was there in Dallas last July when both Freeze and quarterback Payton Thorne insisted upon an improved crop of skill players and how that singular change would help the bottom line. And I believed them!

But then the season began and Thorne couldn’t stop throwing picks. So Freeze planted him on the bench and gave redshirt freshman backup Hank Brown a chance. And then, when Brown couldn’t stop throwing picks, Freeze went back to Thorne.

In 12 games, Auburn’s passers had a 3.5% interception rate. That ranked 110th among FBS teams. With Thorne exhausting his eligibility and Brown transferring, Auburn’s room looks significantly different heading into 2025, and it’s really this position group that serves as the proverbial line of demarcation between those who believe Freeze will save his job and those who believe this era is doomed to fail.

Auburn added Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold, South Carolina transfer Tanner Bailey, and 5-star 2025 signee Deuce Knight. Stanford transfer Ashton Daniels will join the group in the summer.

With Arnold and Knight set to do battle in spring ball, one of them will likely enter the season with the starting job. Mistakes would be inevitable if Knight wins the job and starts as a true freshman. If Arnold wins the job, Auburn will turn the reins over to a third-year man with a career 1.9% interception rate.

Arnold was incredibly cautious with the ball last season with the Sooners. Among quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks, Arnold’s per-pass average of 5.7 yards was the second-lowest. While he wasn’t throwing interceptions, he wasn’t pushing the ball down the field with much success.

Compare that with Thorne, who averaged 8.5 yards per pass attempt and 10 air yards per pass. According to PFF, Thorne had fewer turnover-worthy throws than Arnold, too.

But he continued a trend with Freeze-led quarterbacks.

When it comes to INT rates, the national average for all FBS teams over the last 3 seasons has hovered around 2.7%. Freeze-coached teams have had an interception rate greater than 2.7% in 9 of his 12 seasons as a head coach. Freeze-coached teams have had an interception rate greater than 3.7% in each of his last 4 seasons.

Is it the quarterback? Or is it Freeze?

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Last September, when Auburn was in the midst of a mind-numbing string of games, Freeze said he believed in what was being taught but claimed it was just hard to overcome so many turnovers.

In losses to Cal and Arkansas, Auburn had 10 turnovers. In a 6-point home loss to Oklahoma, Auburn had only a single turnover but it was crushing — a 63-yard pick-6 with 4:06 left to play in a game Auburn led by 5.

“I told our staff that, honestly, it’s one of the better gameplans that a staff has put together in my time,” Freeze said of the gameplan for Oklahoma.

Of course, no one on The Plains wanted to hear that.

And certainly not after Freeze claimed Auburn would win 9 of 10 games against Arkansas following a 10-point loss.

Auburn might be the most interesting team in the country to me entering 2025.

Freeze has the power to defy expectations. That could be a good thing or a bad thing.

Auburn’s Pythagorean wins expectation last season was 7.8. The Tigers won just 5. The difference between real and expected wins was the second-largest of any FBS team in the country.

Originally designed by Bill James as a way to calculate a baseball team’s projected winning percentage based on runs scored and runs allowed, Pythagorean Expectation uses a team’s point differential to determine relative strength.

The underlying assertion is that plain win-loss records can be deceiving. Pythagorean Expectation is a tool that has been shown to have predictive utility in college football.

There are outliers, as with anything. But in general, teams that outperform their Pythagorean Expectation one year tend to regress during the following season, while teams that underperform tend to improve.

In 2022, TCU had the second-largest difference between its Pythagorean wins and its actual wins (3.o) of any FBS school. And what happened in 2023? The Horned Frogs crashed back to earth. South Florida had the second-worst difference between its Pythagorean wins and its actual wins (-2.4) in 2022 and the Bulls had a 6-game improvement in 2023.

Miami was a prime “breakthrough” candidate for 2024 based on Pythagorean expectations. It won 7 games in 2023 with a point differential that suggested a 9-win team. Miami enjoyed a 3-win improvement in 2024. Oklahoma State wildly outperformed its win expectation in 2023 — a 10-win team with the point differential of a 7-win team — and the Cowboys fell apart in 2024.

Here are the 10 teams that most underperformed expectations in 2024:

UCF — Pythagorean Expectation: 6.9 wins | Actual wins: 4
Auburn — Pythagorean Expectation: 7.8 wins | Actual wins: 5
Florida International — Pythagorean Expectation: 6.2 wins | Actual wins: 4
Mississippi State — Pythagorean Expectation: 4.1 wins | Actual wins: 2
Virginia Tech — Pythagorean Expectation: 8.1 wins | Actual wins: 6
Utah — Pythagorean Expectation: 6.9 wins | Actual wins: 5
Kansas — Pythagorean Expectation: 6.9 wins | Actual wins: 5
Florida Atlantic — Pythagorean Expectation: 4.9 wins | Actual wins: 3
Tulane — Pythagorean Expectation: 10.9 wins | Actual wins: 9
Ole Miss — Pythagorean Expectation: 11.9 wins | Actual wins: 10

And below are the 10 teams that most outperformed expectations:

Arkansas State — Pythagorean Expectation: 4.9 wins | Actual wins: 8
Sam Houston State — Pythagorean Expectation: 7.6 wins | Actual wins: 10
Syracuse — Pythagorean Expectation: 7.7 wins | Actual wins: 10
Duke — Pythagorean Expectation: 7.1 wins | Actual wins: 9
Colorado State — Pythagorean Expectation: 6.1 wins | Actual wins: 8
Buffalo — Pythagorean Expectation: 7.2 wins | Actual wins: 9
Oregon — Pythagorean Expectation: 11.2 wins | Actual wins: 13
Charlotte — Pythagorean Expectation: 3.4 wins | Actual wins: 5
Memphis — Pythagorean Expectation: 9.4 wins | Actual wins: 11
Iowa State — Pythagorean Expectation: 9.4 wins | Actual wins: 11

Sports betting apps are rolling out select win totals for big-name programs in 2025. Auburn isn’t among them yet. I’m curious what the number opens at, though my guess is somewhere between 6.5 and 7.5. If it’s the former (or anything lower), the over is going to have some value.

Auburn has the 10th-best odds to win the SEC Championship Game at FanDuel (+3500). There’s a clear upper tier and then a distinct second tier. Auburn fits into a 2-school group in the middle of the conference alongside Florida. The potential is obvious, but there’s a high degree of risk with both for one reason (the schedule) or another (the Freeze factor).

With regard to Auburn, there is plenty of talent around the quarterback position. On the heels of a top-10 high school class in 2024, Freeze signed the seventh-best high school class in 2025 and has the eighth-ranked transfer class.

Auburn is bringing in an offensive lineman (Xavier Chaplin) who should be a high-end left tackle and another (Mason Murphy) who has a ton of experience at the high-major level. Georgia Tech transfer Eric Singleton Jr. should partner with Cam Coleman to give the Tigers a really potent 1-2 punch at receiver.

And Auburn’s defense was strong last season. The unit finished 18th in the country in SP+. From what was a veteran-laden group, none of the top 4 tacklers return in 2025. That being said, 5 of the top 10 were underclassmen and are expected to have featured roles in 2025.

Utah is another school that jumps out as a potential breakthrough team in 2025.

The Utes were preseason favorites to win the Big 12 last season, but their debut season in the Big 12 was even more miserable than their final year in the Pac-12. In 2023, Utah never knew when quarterback Cameron Rising was coming back. To begin 2024, the Utes expected Rising to once again lead the team. But he was limited to just 3 games because of another injury and freshman Isaac Wilson was forced into action ahead of schedule.

Wilson threw 11 interceptions in 9 games. Like Auburn, Utah just couldn’t get out of its own way on offense. The Utes ended the year with a 4.7% interception rate on all passes. Per Game on Paper, Utah’s offense ranked 127th in adjusted EPA per play. There was no consistency to be found anywhere on offense.

But, during the Utes’ 7-game losing streak, they played in 5 games decided by 8 points or less. They lost by 3 to a ranked Iowa State team, by 1 to a top-10 BYU team, and by 8 on the road against the eventual Big 12 champion, Arizona State.

The defense was outstanding, which has become the standard under Morgan Scalley’s stewardship. The Utes’ defense ranked 15th nationally in adjusted EPA per play, according to Game on Paper.

Three of the top 4 tacklers return in 2025. Overall, 6 of the Utes’ top 10 tacklers are back. That includes linebacker Lander Barton, who will be the centerpiece of the Utah defense, and safety Tao Johnson.

It’s safe to assume Utah will not be the preseason favorite to win the Big 12 next season. At bet365, Utah is +1800 to win the league. Nine schools have shorter odds, including Kansas (+750). As a darkhorse team, Utah carries real value. So much so, that I’m actually putting a small wager on them now before spring ball arrives and folks realize how good Devon Dampier is.

Dampier followed his offensive coordinator to Salt Lake City this offseason. To replace Andy Ludwig, coach Kyle Whittingham hired New Mexico’s Jason Beck, who runs an RPO-style offense and turned Dampier into a dual-threat dynamo with the Lobos. Per Game on Paper, Dampier led all FBS players last season in EPA per rush.

The 5-foot-10 quarterback has room to grow as a passer, but last season was also his first as a full-time starter. He completed 58% of his passes for 2,768 yards and 12 touchdowns with 12 interceptions. He ran for 1,166 yards and 19 touchdowns on 155 carries.

Rising is no longer with the team and Wilson transferred away. Dampier will be the guy for Utah next season. Assuming health, the Utes could be a pain in the rear end for everyone to deal with. The backfield duo of Dampier and Wazzu transfer tailback Wayshawn Parker should give the Utes one of the Big 12’s best ground games. And the entire starting offensive line returns.

Utah gets Arizona State, Kansas State, and Texas Tech at home. With a veteran coaching staff and a defense that consistently plays above expectations, Utah is always a danger. It just has to get the quarterback position sorted out.

As for teams to fade in 2025, Syracuse is obvious. The Orange are replacing a quarterback in Kyle McCord who was one of the most valuable in all of college football last season. McCord was second nationally in total EPA and 11th nationally in EPA per dropback. He threw for 4,779 yards and 34 touchdowns while guiding Syracuse to just its fifth 10-win season since 1990.

Unless coach Fran Brown targets a transfer quarterback in the spring (a risky move in itself), the options to replace McCord are LSU transfer Rickie Collins or redshirt freshman Jakhari Williams. Collins has played 32 snaps and thrown 7 passes in 2 collegiate seasons. Williams did not appear in a single game last season.

Syracuse has road games against Tennessee (in Atlanta), Clemson, and SMU over the first 5 weeks of the season. This is a program that went 7-2 in one-score games last year. That would be hard to replicate even with McCord returning for another season.

I’m also keeping an eye on Illinois as a team to fade, depending on where that win total opens up. The Illini are just outside the top 10 overperformers — a 10-win team with an 8.5-win point differential.

Illinois went 5-1 in one-score games last season, usually a red flag for the next season. It got handled by the best teams it played, losing to Oregon and Penn State by a combined 59-16. The bowl win was an encouraging result for coach Bret Bielema in terms of program-building, but I’m not sure how much stock to put in non-CFP bowl games right now. And the aforementioned regular-season performances really soured me on this group.

I’m also hesitant to really back this offense moving forward. Quarterback Luke Altmyer cut his interceptions from 10 in 2023 to 6 in 2024, but he actually had a higher turnover-worthy throw rate. Fewer picks helped the bottom line, but it wasn’t a case of Altmyer being more protective of the football. By most accounts, Illinois had fortune on its side last season.

Altmyer’s top 2 receiving targets, Pat Bryant and Zachary Franklin, are gone. Both will be missed. The duo combined for 19 contested catches last season. I’m drawing parallels to what happened with Carson Beck when he lost his go-to receivers and had to operate around an average run game. Altmyer puts the ball in danger already; you don’t want him feeling added pressure to make plays.

This will ultimately depend on the number. Because of the schedule Illinois will play in 2025, it could take a step back in terms of play and still reach 10 wins. I’m jumping on an under at 9.5 or greater, but I might just pass altogether if the win total opens at 8.5.

Derek Peterson

Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.