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Betting Stuff: Value bets to go unbeaten in 2024 college football regular season
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At the end of the 2023 regular season, there were 4 teams from the Power 5 ranks that remained unbeaten — Georgia in the SEC, Michigan in the Big Ten, Washington in the Pac-12, and Florida State in the ACC.
It was the third year in a row Georgia had ended the regular season unbeaten. But it was also the second consecutive season Michigan did it. And it marked the first time during the College Football Playoff era that 4 different teams from a Power conference ended the regular season 12-0. Previously, we’d seen only 1 P5 team make it through a 12-game season unbeaten 4 times, 2 make it through once, and 3 make it on 3 different occasions.
It’s hard to go unbeaten. You have to have the perfect combination of things fall right into place — the right schedule, the right injury luck, and the right amount of depth.
As the summer arrives, DraftKings has posted odds for select Power conference teams to go unbeaten in the 2024 regular season. We don’t have anyone from the G5 ranks, so you’re only looking at the big-name schools (plus Kansas State, for some reason).
Here are the teams I think have the best value at their current odds.
Oregon (+330 via DraftKings)
The Ducks have the third-shortest odds of going unbeaten of anyone on the board at DraftKings and I still think that’s value. It’s a testament to the work Dan Lanning has done developing this roster in his 2 short years with the program. Under Lanning, Oregon has top-10 recruiting classes and top-10 transfer classes in both the 2023 and 2024 cycles — the only team in America that can say that. (Shout out Pick Six Previews for that nugget.) Lanning has built for the future while boosting his ceiling in the present, and the Ducks solved their most pressing issues this offseason.
They needed a replacement for Bo Nix, first and foremost. For so many reasons, Dillon Gabriel was a perfect fit. They needed coverage in the secondary and found that with expected starters at safety (Kobe Savage) and corner (Jabbar Muhammad). And they needed to bolster the interior of the defensive line, which they did in both the winter and spring windows adding Jamaree Caldwell and Derrick Harmon. This is a team with quality depth at all the major positions and very few holes.
Oregon was kept out of the College Football Playoff last year because Washington’s receivers were just plain better than a depleted Oregon secondary. The gap between the Ducks and a team that played for a national title was frustratingly small.
Lanning’s group should be 5-0 when Ohio State comes to town on Oct. 12. At home, Oregon has a good shot of beating the Buckeyes. From there, the only real test that remains is a trip to Ann Arbor on Nov. 2. Oregon should handle Purdue and Illinois. Maryland at home shouldn’t be an issue. And Washington has to play in Eugene this fall.
Compare Oregon’s schedule to Ohio State’s. The Ducks leave their home state only once before hosting the Buckeyes — a Sept. 28 trek to Pasadena. Don’t discount the toll of playing Iowa a week before making a cross-country trip to play what amounts to a nonconference game. (That’s what these new matchups will feel like in Year 1 for coaching staffs.) Iowa is a brute. Oregon will take the physicality to another level. That’s a storyline to keep in mind. And then after facing the Ducks, Ohio State still has to play Nebraska, Penn State on the road, and Michigan to close the season.
Either of those 2 schools could go undefeated in 2024. Both are talented enough. But my money is on Oregon. I thought Lanning’s group was a legitimate title threat last season, and I think this year’s team can be better.
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CLAIM OFFERNotre Dame (+425 via DraftKings)
In Marcus Freeman’s third season, the Fighting Irish have quite the slate of games. They will play only three true road games all year — at Texas A&M, Purdue, and USC. They’ll play Georgia Tech at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. They’ll play Navy at MetLife Stadium. And they’ll play Army at Yankee Stadium in New York. Louisville comes to South Bend. Florida State comes to South Bend. No Clemson. No Ohio State. The Irish have a pathway to their first 12-0 regular season since 2018.
There’s no question about the defense, which doesn’t really have a major weakness. All eyes are on the offense, which replaced its tackles, its top tailback, its quarterback, and its offensive coordinator this offseason. Replacing Joe Alt and Blake Fisher — a duo that started 26 consecutive games together as the bookends on the Irish line — is no easy task. It sounds as though the offense will look to replace Audric Estime with parts rather than 1 plug-and-play guy. At quarterback and offensive coordinator, though, it’s fair to think the Irish upgraded.
Last year, the pass game was wildly inconsistent. It produced just 175 yards in the loss to Ohio State. Sam Hartman was a sub-60% passer over the next 2 weeks as the Irish went 1-1. In the loss to Clemson, things completely fell apart. With former Duke transfer Riley Leonard, Notre Dame feels optimistic.
Leonard had follow-up surgery to address a developing stress fracture in his surgically repaired ankle and wasn’t available during the spring. That meant there were plenty of reps to be shared with Steve Angeli and CJ Carr. Leonard is expected to be ready for the start of the season.
In his last full season as a starter, Leonard threw for 2,967 yards, ran for another 699, and scored 33 total touchdowns. In South Bend, he’ll get to work with former LSU OC Mike Denbrock, who just helped dual-threat star Jayden Daniels torment SEC defenses en route to a Heisman Trophy. The Irish added 3 transfer wide receivers to help things along as well. Assuming health at the quarterback spot, the pieces are in place.
Miami (+700 via DraftKings)
If it all feels a little “too much, too soon” with Miami in Mario Cristobal’s third year at the helm, that’s reasonable. They went 5-7 in Year 1 and then 7-6 in Year 2 with a bowl defeat and one of the ugliest end-of-game gaffes we’ll ever see from a major head coach. Miami hasn’t even won 10 games since the 2017 season. But there’s some juice here.
The Hurricanes keep popping up in all the things I pay attention to during the offseason. They underperformed their expected win total last season — a marker for improvement. Per ESPN’s Bill Connelly, they’re top-30 in returning production when factoring in transfers. Cristobal killed it in the transfer portal, where The U added quarterback Cameron Ward, running back Damien Martinez, and wideout Sam Brown. Much like Texas has done under Steve Sarkisian, Miami has been somewhat quietly stockpiling talent since Cristobal’s arrival.
“Quietly” is the operative word here because the top-ranked classes on signing day haven’t yet yielded much. But Texas was also somewhat stop-and-start before a 12-2 season in Sark’s third year. Miami had a 2-4 record last year in games decided by 8 points or less, which can be a source of optimism for the new year. You get stress-tested as a team, figure out where the improvements need to be made, and then spend the offseason hammering those areas out. Texas went 2-5 in 1-score games in 2022 and then won 3 of 4 such games prior to its College Football Playoff appearance.
You need a game to jumpstart you. For Texas last fall, that game came in Tuscaloosa. For Miami, Florida doesn’t offer the same caliber of opponent but it could offer the same kind of confidence. The ‘Canes open in Gainesville against the Gators. Winning that sets the table for a special season.
Virginia Tech and Florida State both have to play at Hard Rock Stadium. Nothing else about the schedule is particularly daunting. Lousiville on the road will be tough, but the Hurricanes head into that one off a bye while the Cards will be playing their fifth game in 5 weeks.
Miami has enough talent to win the ACC and make the College Football Playoff.
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CLAIM OFFERMissouri (+850 via DraftKings)
Let me preface this by saying I do not believe an SEC team will make it through the 2024 regular season unbeaten. The conference is too good, and too talented at the top. Plus, all those teams will play each other in what should be a wildly rewarding league schedule. Georgia has road games against Ole Miss, Texas, and Alabama. Texas also faces Michigan on the road in addition to its neutral site matchup with Oklahoma. Alabama has road games against Wisconsin (Kalen DeBoer’s first road game), Tennessee, LSU, and Oklahoma in addition to the Georgia game.
Could Georgia (+300) run through the league again behind Carson Beck? Sure it could, the Bulldogs are a machine. And if you want that move, it’s pretty safe considering Kirby Smart’s group hasn’t lost a regular-season game since November of 2020.
I’m OK taking a longshot here because I like Eli Drinkwitz’s situation in Columbia.
Missouri is lurking as a team that could emerge from carnage and swipe a spot in the conference title game. While the usual powers are wounding each other, Missouri has a favorable slate. The Tigers face Murray State, Buffalo, Boston College, and UMass in the nonconference. They get Texas A&M early off of a bye week. They get Oklahoma at home off of a bye week. Going off preseason SP+ projections, Missouri would be favored in 11 of its 12 games. Are Brady Cook and Luther Burden III enough to beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa? That’s what this could ultimately come down to — that Alabama game on Oct. 26. If the Tigers are to take the next step after a 10-2 regular season last fall, they’ll have to beat one of the elites.
Missouri doesn’t have anywhere near the kind of talent as other schools on this list; it doesn’t have a top-15 recruiting class at any point in the last 5 cycles. That means the margins are much slimmer.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
