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Depending on how liberal or conservative, optimistic or pessimistic you might feel about the state of the average SEC team and locking up a bowl berth, here are six teams with at least an outside chance to play in December or January.
RELATED: John Crist’s way-too-early SEC bowl projections
Close to 50/50
Kentucky: There might not be a team with a tougher road schedule than the Wildcats, who have to play at Florida, Alabama, Missouri, Tennessee and Louisville all evenly spread throughout the season.
If they win three non-conference games, the Wildcats still need three conference wins to be safely eligible. But four conference wins in four years is why they haven’t made a bowl since 2010. So they likely need at least one upset.
That was the formula that took Rich Brooks to five consecutive bowl games, yet Kentucky has been one play away each of the past two years.
Auburn: Phil Steele projects the Tigers in the Music City Bowl, while the Golden Nugget pegs them at seven wins. It is difficult to get a read on Auburn after it was picked by the media to win the conference a year ago, and then finished last.
They have quarterback questions, running back questions, all kinds of questions.
The eight home games help, but then again, three of the first four are against Clemson, Texas A&M and LSU. Not to mention road games at Georgia and Alabama. Give them three non-conference wins and against Vanderbilt, and they still need two more to be bowl eligible. Despite having just 12 returning starters, the Tigers could be so overlooked, they could become a dark horse by midseason.
Arkansas: The Razorbacks’ toughest games are at home and they must win a majority of the following: Alabama, Ole Miss, Florida and LSU. The non-conference schedule includes a game at TCU, but the Razorbacks only have three true road games. Bret Bielema has the win total trending in the right direction, from three, to seven, to eight. At Wisconsin, he won 10 in his fourth season. But just five returning starters and a new starting quarterback on offense are two reasons for concern.
Teetering on the edge
Missouri: A strong defense is expected under defensively-minded Barry Odom, yet the confidence evaporates when looking at the offense. The schedule is favorable with three non-conference games in September; the challenge will be visiting LSU, Florida and Tennessee. And the Tigers have lost two games to Georgia at home by a combined 75-20 since 2012. November home games against Vanderbilt and Arkansas could be what stands between the Tigers and a bowl.
Vanderbilt: The Commodores return 15 starters, the third-most in the SEC, and this could be the year Derek Mason turns the corner. They have tricky road games at Georgia Tech and Western Kentucky. Presumably tough matchups against Florida, Ole Miss and Tennessee are all in Nashville. Picking off one of those may be all that’s needed to clinch a bowl.
South Carolina: The Gamecocks begin the season with three SEC road games in September, but they’re winnable: at Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and Kentucky. Before last year’s winless road slate, the Gamecocks had 11 road wins from 2011-14. Combine Will Muschamp’s energy with a couple of wins and they could build momentum entering home games against Texas A&M and Georgia. But with youth and inexperience, it’s difficult to say which side of the ball has more questions. Even the most optimistic fan would be hard-pressed to find more than five wins.
A former newspaper veteran, Keith Farner is a news manager for Saturday Down South.
