Ad Disclosure

Can LSU lose to Alabama and still make the College Football Playoff?
By John Brasier
Published:
While one-loss Alabama must win Saturday’s showdown against LSU to stay in contention for a berth in the College Football Playoff, the Tigers would stay in the race despite a loss.
But the Tigers (8-0), the likely No. 1 seed if they win out, would need to win the remainder of their games — including a November 21 game at Ole Miss and a possible SEC title game — and receive some help.
For starters, LSU would need the champion of the Big Ten, Big 12 or ACC to have at least one loss or have Alabama lose in one of its two remaining road games. The CFB Playoff selection committee won’t take a one-loss team over an unbeaten team in one of the Power 5 conferences.
Don’t believe it? Consider that Clemson, the best team in the ACC — the weakest Power 5 conference — owns a victory over Notre Dame and was ranked No. 1 in the committee’s first set of rankings. And Clemson should stay undefeated, with only a home game against unusually vulnerable Florida State as a significant hurdle.
But a one-loss champion in two (no unbeatens remain in the Pac-12) of the Power 5 conferences is likely, especially in the Big 12 where unbeatens Baylor, Texas Christian and Oklahoma State, as well as once-beaten Oklahoma, will square off in a series of November battles.
In the Big Ten, Ohio State faces Michigan State November 21 in a battle of current unbeatens. If Ohio State wins, the Buckeyes must still win at Michigan. With Iowa favored to win out, the Big Ten title game looms as a potential showdown of undefeated teams.
A one-loss LSU would get the nod over an unbeaten Memphis (LSU would also have a victory over Ole Miss) or Houston team, though not without some public criticism.
The Tigers would have the nation’s most attractive one-loss resume with victories over Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Texas A&M and Wisconsin and a sole loss at Alabama.
LSU’s toughest competition for a playoff berth would come from the winner of the Stanford-Notre Dame game on November 28.
With a victory over the Irish and another in the Pac-12 title game, Stanford would own a 12-game winning streak since losing in its opener at Northwestern. Notre Dame’s only loss was in the final seconds at Clemson.
If Alabama or Florida wins the SEC, would LSU get a second SEC playoff bid? Tough, but possible, especially if Stanford loses and the best teams in the Big 12 knock each other off.
LSU with Leonard Fournette would be difficult to pass over.
And let’s not forget that LSU also could win the SEC championship with one loss — Alabama has games remaining at Mississippi State and Auburn. It’s hard to fathom a four-team playoff without the SEC champion.