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What to expect from College Football Playoff Committee rankings
By Alex Zorn
Published:
In just a few hours the college football selection committee reveal their first set of rankings, the first step in narrowing the field to four for the 2015 College Football Playoffs.
Here’s a primer on what to expect when the first rankings are released tonight (7 p.m., Eastern, ESPN). Don’t expect the committee’s top 10 to look drastically different from the AP or Coaches Polls. That could change significantly in the next month, of course.
- 1. Ohio State
- 2. Clemson
- 3. LSU
- 4. Baylor
- 5. TCU
- 6. Michigan State
- 7. Alabama
- 8. Florida
- 9. Notre Dame
- 10. Stanford
The 12-member selection committee’s final pairings will be released Sunday, Dec. 6 at noon ET, with the five most likely points of emphasis for the next five weeks listed below:
- Conference championships won
- Strength of schedule
- Head-to-head competition
- Comparing results against common opponents
- Relative factors that may have altered a team’s performance (injuries)
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP POTENTIAL
Picking four conference champions from the Power 5 conferences (SEC, Pac-12, Big 10, Big 12, and the ACC) is almost always everyone’s first method of selection, especially this season as the Pac-12 is the only one without an undefeated team.
Memphis and Notre Dame are the odd men out with this factor, but an undefeated season the rest of the way could make things interesting. If/when the undefeated teams start losing (Memphis, Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma State, LSU, Clemson, Houston, and Toledo) it will become a question of which conference is stronger as over half of the unbeatens play one another before the season is over.
Who it Helps: Ohio State or Michigan State, TCU or Baylor, LSU, and Clemson.
Who it Hurts: Pac-12 teams, Notre Dame, Memphis.
Takeaways: Assuming one of the Big Ten and Big 12 champions go undefeated, a one-loss SEC champion would be virtually impossible for the committee to kick out, but if Alabama, LSU, Utah, Notre Dame, and Clemson all finish with one loss, which two get picked?
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
With so many unbeatens right now, the committee will have to factor in a timeless tool of the BCS era, the strength of schedule. If the committee took the four best teams every year, then they would be hard-pressed not to include at least two teams from the loaded SEC West this season. Think of what Mississippi State or Texas A&M’s records could be in the Pac-12 or ACC. Undefeated most likely.
Who it helps: SEC teams, Utah.
Who it hurts: ACC teams, Big Ten teams, TCU, Baylor, mid-majors.
Takeaway: No. 1 Ohio State has yet to play a Top 25 ranked team, whereas Alabama has played four in eight games. A loss in the SEC this season simply has more value than one in the Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, or ACC. Though all the Big 12 teams play each other in the final month of the season no. 14 Oklahoma is the only one that’s played a Top 25 ranked team at any point this season.
HEAD-TO-HEAD OUTCOMES
Every few weeks of the season there’s a Top-10 vs. Top-10 matchup that shakes up the rest of the board, but college football’s had its fair share of heavyweights already this fall. This week, however, may feature the biggest of all: No. 4 LSU takes on No. 7 Alabama in a game that may decide how many, if any, SEC teams make the Playoff.
Non-conference showdowns featuring nationally-ranked competition often provide fans a glimpse as to which or the stronger conferences, and which teams teams have benefitted from weak competition. Winning those “spotlight” games gives the better team a significant edge in terms of comparative strength at the end of the season.
Who it helps: Clemson, Oklahoma, Utah, Michigan State, LSU, Memphis.
Who it hurts: Michigan, TCU, Baylor, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Temple.
Takeaways: No play has had a bigger impact on the selection committee than the blocked punt return for a TD to end the Michigan and Michigan State game. The victory puts Michigan State on equal footing with Ohio State for Big 10 contention and effectively eliminates the Wolverines chances of winning the conference. LSU-Bama should have a similar effect this week.
COMMON OPPONENT RESULTS
Determining team strength and strength of schedule of all 25 ranked teams can make your head spin, but it’s much easier to interpret when breaking it down logically. Utah (7-1) had been the Pac-12’s highest ranked team since Week 6, but after losing 42-24 to a USC team that Stanford (7-1) beat 41-31 in Week 3 they dropped behind the Cardinal before this week. Despite sharing the same record, No. 8 Stanford sits well ahead of No. 13 Utah after beating a common opponent.
The Crimson Tide will be in an interesting position if both they and Ole Miss win-out the rest of the way after Alabama lost to the Rebels earlier in the season. As such the Tide will need LSU’s help in beating the Rebels in two weeks in order to make the SEC Championship themselves.
Who it helps: Stanford, Clemson, Ole Miss.
Who it hurts: Utah, Florida State, Alabama.
Takeaways: In a Big 12 with four teams ranked in the Top 14, each of which plays one another in the final month, this factor will weigh heavily with the committee.
- Oklahoma State plays TCU, followed by Baylor, followed by Oklahoma.
- TCU plays Oklahoma State, followed by Oklahoma, followed by Baylor.
- Baylor plays Oklahoma followed by Oklahoma State, followed by TCU.
- Oklahoma closes with Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State.
All of that happens in a four-week span. I assume that one Big 12 team will end up in The Playoff, however, there will not be two.
RELEVANT FACTORS INCLUDING INJURIES
The least predictable factor used to determine CFP participants is injuries. Selection committee members could theoretically throw out a one-loss team’s only blemish if a key player did not play. On that same note, an injury to a star player can effectively eliminate a team’s chances of making the playoff.
Who it helps: Ohio State, Florida State.
Who it hurts: Baylor, Georgia.
Takeaways: The two most significant injuries this season have been to Georgia RB Nick Chubb and Baylor QB Seth Russell. Georgia no longer is a factor, but No. 2 Baylor lost its starting quarterback for the season.
Ohio State survived a similar situation last season, but with three consecutive games against Top 15 opponents to end November it’s hard to see Baylor coming out of the Big 12 anymore. Florida State has been banged up for the past few weeks so maybe the committee will overlook the loss to Georgia Tech if they’re able to win out, including a victory at Clemson on Saturday.
FINAL VERDICT
With a very clear idea of who the top four conference champions are at the moment, unless there’s a major upset this weekend, the committee will have a pretty easy time picking the top four teams for the first playoff selection committee of 2015. Ohio State, Baylor, LSU, and Clemson all look like locks for now.
- Ohio State (8-0)
- Clemson (8-0)
- LSU (7-0)
- Baylor (7-0)
The question is, will LSU and Clemson be there next week after playing their top conference rival this weekend?
Parting thought: Just one of the top 4 teams in the first rankings last season made the playoff and Ohio State opened last year at No. 16. We’ve got a long way to go and a lot of football still to be played.
