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What is your team’s win probability this week? Below is a list of every Power 5 team’s win probability for Week 14, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.
We start, where else, with the SEC Championship Game:
Alabama (77.8%): The Crimson Tide punched their ticket to Atlanta with a 29-13 win over Auburn last week. Florida looked terrible while losing 27-2 to Florida State at home. This year’s SEC Championship Game is a rematch of the 2009 title game, which Alabama won 32-13. The Crimson Tide, whose defensive coordinator Kirby Smart is replacing the fired Mark Richt at Georgia, is favored by 17 points.
Southern Cal (51.5%): The Trojans, who are making their first appearance in the Pac-12 Championship Game, face Stanford in a rematch. After beating host USC 41-31 on Sept. 19, the Cardinal survived Notre Dame 38-36 at home last week.
USC beat UCLA 40-21 at home last week and recently dropped Clay Helton’s interim tag after he went 5-2 since taking over for the fired Steve Sarkisian.
The Trojans are 4.5-point underdogs. Stanford won its first two trips to this game; it beat UCLA 27-24 in 2012 and routed Arizona State 38-14 the following year.
Clemson (59.0%): The ACC Atlantic Division champion Tigers struggled to beat South Carolina 37-32 last week, while Coastal Division champ North Carolina is coming off a 45-34 road victory over North Carolina State.
Clemson is favored by 5 points.
Under first-year coordinator and former Auburn head coach Gene Chizik, North Carolina has improved its scoring defense by 18.2 points. The Tar Heels allowed an ACC-worst 39 points per game last year.
Michigan State (66.3%): The Spartans clinched the Big Ten East with their 55-16 home win over Penn State last week. The Hawkeyes, meanwhile, improved to 12-0 with their 28-20 victory at Nebraska.
Michigan State is favored by 3.5 points.
This is Iowa’s first appearance in its conference championship game; this is the third trip for the Spartans, who lost to Wisconsin 42-39 in 2011 and beat Ohio State 34-24 two years ago.
Stan Chrapowicki is a contributing writer for Saturday Down South. He covers SEC football, Alabama and Auburn.
