Ad Disclosure
College football futures market analysis: Conference championship best bets for 2024
Published:
The 2024 college football season is just a couple of weeks away, so it’s a good time to check out the conference championship futures market for each of the 9 major conferences in FBS.
All references to “expected value” in this story are based on comparing projections from Bill Connelly’s final SP+ projections to betting odds from a variety of sports betting apps.
Here’s a look at the best bets for every power conference as well as notes on each Group-of-5 league:
Best SEC Championship Bets
Based on Connelly’s numbers, there’s a clear pick for the highest expected-value SEC champion bet in 2024: Missouri.
The Tigers are +2500 to win the SEC Championship at FanDuel — by far the best price on the market, for what it’s worth. However, SP+ gives Mizzou a 7.1% chance to win the conference championship. That’s nearly double the implied odds (3.85%) derived from FanDuel’s price. It equates to an expected value of $84.60 (per $100 wagered), which is one of the best-value bets you can make regardless of conference based on SP+’s projections.
From a practical standpoint, Missouri is in an interesting spot. The Tigers are coming off of an awesome 2023 campaign and they return some key pieces such as quarterback Brady Cook and star wideout Luther Burden. There’s quite a bit of optimism surrounding Eli Drinkwitz’s program this offseason despite the Tigers losing several important defensive players to the NFL Draft. Mizzou’s schedule sets up very nicely for a potential SEC title game run — it faces just one team (Alabama) in conference play that was included in the preseason AP Top 15.
RELATED: Will Missouri make the College Football Playoff in 2024?
Elsewhere in the SEC, bets on Alabama at +750 ($21.55) and Oklahoma at +3000 ($17.80) to win the SEC also return positive expected value based on SP+.
States: MA, NJ, PA, VA, MD, WV, TN, LA, KS, KY, NC, AZ, CO, IA, WY, IL, IN, OH, MI, NY
21+ and present in a state with legal sports gaming. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-Gambler.
Best Big Ten Championship Bets
The Big Ten is a bit of a different animal. SP+ projections show just 4 teams have at least a 3% chance of winning the Big Ten Championship, which is the lowest number of any conference.
Leading the way (in terms of expected value) is Michigan. The Wolverines are +850 to win the Big Ten over at ESPN BET (implied odds of 10.53%). Connelly’s projection gives them a flat 15% chance to win repeat as Big Ten champs in 2024. That translates to an expected value of $42.50 on a $100 bet.
Michigan is expected to take a sizable step back this season after losing Jim Harbaugh, JJ McCarthy and plenty of other influential pieces from last year’s national title-winning squad. However, the Wolverines could be worse in 2024 and still make a serious run at the conference championship. There appear to only be 3 legitimate challengers: Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State. Michigan faces Oregon at home and Ohio State on the road in 2024. The Ducks and Buckeyes also play each other this fall, so Michigan splitting those games would put it in good position to reach the conference title game — provided there are no slip-ups elsewhere on the schedule.
There’s only 1 other +EV bet in the Big Ten based on SP+ — Penn State at +500 ($14.00).
NJ, PA, VA, MD, WV, MA, KS, KY, LA, TN, NC, CO, AZ, IA, IL, IN, MI, OH Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Best ACC Championship Bets
The ACC also expands this year with SMU, Stanford and Cal set to join the league. Florida State and Clemson are the clear favorites to win this league according to the betting markets, with Louisville and NC State not too far behind.
Connelly’s numbers largely agree, although SP+ is lower than consensus on the Wolfpack. But the bigger takeaway from comparing SP+ projections to ACC title betting odds is that this model prefers the long-shots in the ACC.
North Carolina — yes, Mack Brown’s Carolina — is +3600 to win the ACC per FanDuel. That’s an implied probability of 2.7% to win the ACC. And yet Connelly’s numbers give the Tar Heels a 4.1% chance of doing so. That translates to an expected value of $51.70 on a $100 bet. Still, it’s difficult to park your money behind a UNC program that has routinely fallen apart in November the last couple of seasons — and now doesn’t even have Drake Maye to fall back on. Carolina is a long-shot for a reason.
RELATED: Mack Brown is preaching ‘complementary football’ in the post-Drake Maye era
Another +EV shout in the ACC this year is SMU. Although the price isn’t as good as it once was this offseason, ESPN BET is offering +1200 on the Mustangs to win the ACC Championship. SMU was +1800 to win the ACC at some books as recently as a couple of months ago. But even at the more-expensive +1200 price tag, there’s still a little bit of expected value ($19.60 per $100 wagered) on the Mustangs to win the ACC.
Best Big 12 Championship Bets
There’s 1 clear +EV bet to win the Big 12 this season per SP+: Arizona. The Wildcats are a bit of an unknown after losing coach Jedd Fisch to Washington, but they were able to retain quarterback Noah Fifita and several other key players from last year’s team. Despite the coaching change, Arizona ranks 22nd nationally in weighted returning production per SP+’s calculations.
SP+ gives Arizona a 10.9% chance to win the Big 12 this season. FanDuel puts Arizona’s conference title odds at +1200, which equates to implied odds of 7.69%. Those numbers translate to an expected value of $41.70 on a $100 wager.
There is some marginal value on 2 of the league’s top favorites in Kansas State (+400) and Oklahoma State (+800), per SP+.
Group of 5 Championship Best Bets
Here are some notes on some of top +EV bets you can make on conference title futures out of the Group-of-5:
Troy is highly undervalued in the market, according to SP+’s model. A bet on the Trojans to win the Sun Belt at +1600 (FanDuel) is worth $139.70 in expected value on a $100 wager. That’s the biggest +EV bet you can make in this market, per SP+. Elsewhere in the Sun Belt, James Madison is also way underrated by the betting markets according to SP+. You can get JMU at +800 to win the league at bet365, but SP+ shows the Dukes as the favorite (22%) to win the conference. Most books have App State as the favorite in this league.
States: NJ, PA, AZ, CO, IA, IN, KY, NJ, LA, OH, VA GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER (CO/KY/LA/NJ/OH/VA) and 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA) 21+ (CO/IA/NJ/OH/VA) and 18+ (KY)
Boise State is an odds-on favorite to win the Mountain West at most books, but SP+ would suggest that’s a mistake. The Broncos have a 43.5% chance to win the league, per SP+’s projection. From an expected value perspective, Connelly’s numbers much prefer a bet on Fresno State (15.38% chance to win the league) or even long-shot San Diego State (3.03%).
Liberty is a significant betting favorite to win Conference USA, but Western Kentucky is a formidable challenger. SP+ shows good value on betting the Hilltoppers at +450 (DraftKings) to win this league. As a long-shot, there’s also +EV on betting Middle Tennessee State (3.23% chance to win the conference) at+3000 on DraftKings.
Want to bet on some long-shots? The MAC is the place for you. SP+ shows significant expected value with bets on Eastern Michigan (+3600 on FanDuel), Buffalo (+4600 on FanDuel) and Ball State (+4600 on FanDuel). None of those programs have better than a 5% chance to win the MAC according to SP+.
In the AAC, it’s the favorites who are undervalued in the betting market according to SP+. Memphis (+230 on FanDuel) and UTSA (+500 on bet365) are the leaders in +EV per SP+’s model. Tulane is the other favorite in this league, but SP+’s numbers suggest a wager on the Tigers or Roadrunners would be more prudent.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
