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Alabama is expected to win the SEC once again. But not if its archrival has anything to say.
At the annual media days event in July, the Crimson Tide received 217 of the 243 first-place votes cast. Auburn was next in line with 11 first-place votes, making it the only other school to reach double digits in that category.
If the Tigers are to topple the three-time defending league champion Crimson Tide, they will need quarterback Jarrett Stidham to live up to the lofty hype accompanying him plus avoid a dropoff on the defensive line following the departures of standouts Montravius Adams and Carl Lawson.
But elsewhere, Auburn returns plenty of talent. The Tigers need it to jell quickly, and everything else could fall into place as it seeks to return to the national championship game for the first time since coach Gus Malzahn’s debut season in 2013.
QB
Jarrett Stidham
Confidence meter: Somewhat confident.
Why? Stidham’s ability isn’t in question. After all, when he came out of high school, 247Sports ranked him as the No. 1 pro-style quarterback in the 2015 class. He signed with Baylor, appearing in 10 games in 2015 and throwing for 1,265 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Here’s where the “but” part comes in.
But … those stats came against Big 12 competition, which isn’t exactly known for hard-nosed defense. And he tallied those stats two years ago. Stidham hasn’t played in a live game since he left Baylor — he transferred to a community college and took classes but didn’t play football. And consider Stidham has been bandied about as a dark horse Heisman Trophy candidate. Jeremy Johnson received that type of attention entering the 2015 campaign.
I shouldn’t have to tell you how that turned out.
So, there’s a question of how long it will take Stidham to knock off the rust and get back in the flow of competing against players who aren’t his teammates. And how well he’ll handle the spotlight. But if he puts all distractions aside and finds his form quickly, great things could be in store for the Tigers.
RB
Kamryn Pettway and Kerryon Johnson; Chandler Cox at H-back
Confidence meter: Couldn’t be more confident if my life depended on it.
Why? It doesn’t matter who head coach Gus Malzahn or running backs coach Tim Horton have at their disposal: They will produce a 1,000-yard rusher. Every season since 2006 — when Malzahn left the high school ranks to become Arkansas’ offensive coordinator — he has had a team with a 1,000-yard rusher.
Just take a gander at this article I did last year detailing Malzahn and Horton’s success with running backs — and make sure to note Pettway become their latest 1,000-yard rusher last season.
The last thing the Tigers should be worried about is whether their running backs will excel. At this point, that’s a given.
WR
Nate Craig-Myers (split end), Eli Stove (flanker), Will Hastings (slot), Kyle Davis (“big” slot); Jalen Harris and Sal Cannella at TE
Confidence meter: On the fence, though it’s trending upward.
Why? Craig-Myers, Davis and Stove were all well-regarded signees in 2016. And since Malzahn took over the program in 2013, the Tigers have had gifted receivers. But that hasn’t translated into big passing numbers — yet. Auburn hasn’t produced a 1,000-yard receiver in Malzahn’s tenure; the closest was Sammie Coates’ 902 yards in 2013.
Of course, part of this has to do with Auburn’s emphasis on the ground — which, as noted above, has been successful. When you run that often it can be hard to find 1,000 receiving yards. That’s the only reason I’m just “somewhat confident” about the receivers. I believe Craig-Myers and Davis have star potential, and could be the team’s best 1-2 punch in the passing game in years. Harris and Cannella are big targets, too, with the latter even splitting time at receiver.
Perhaps, unlike the first four seasons of Malzahn’s tenure, the Tigers finally have a top-flight, pass-first quarterback capable of getting the ball to his receivers. (Note I said “pass-first.” Nick Marshall was a magician with the read-option in 2013. But Peyton Manning he was not.)
Until the Tigers air it out against a Power 5 opponent, however, it’s wait-and-see mode with their pass-catchers.
OL
LT Prince Tega Wanogho, LG Mike Horton, C Austin Golson, RG Braden Smith, RT Darius James
Confidence meter: So-so.
Why? Wanogho and Horton have plenty of potential. The problem is, neither has started a college game. Wanogho is particularly raw, as he has only played football for a few years. The good news for the Tigers is the other three members of the offensive line don’t lack experience. That should give Wanogho and Horton time to find their footing — both figuratively and literally.
If either struggles, the Tigers have a contingency plan, which would feature James flipping to left tackle, Smith shifting out to right tackle and Marquel Harrell and Wilson Bell battling it out at right guard. Golson would move to left guard, provided Casey Dunn — a two-time FCS All-American at Jacksonville State — proves he can handle playing center.
DL
DE Marlon Davidson, DT Dontavius Russell, NT Derrick Brown, Jeff Holland at Buck
Confidence meter: Pretty confident.
Why? Davidson proved last season he was the future of the defensive line, earning All-SEC freshman honors from the league’s coaches. With Montravius Adams, Carl Lawson and Devaroe Lawrence gone, Russell becomes the elder of the group. Brown should only continue to get better after appearing in every game last season. While Holland likely can’t replace Lawson on his own, the depth behind him — which includes Paul James III and freshman Big Kat Bryant — should contribute as well.
Nick Coe, who redshirted last season, is also expected to play plenty as a terror off the edge and Andrew Williams and Tyrone Truesdell will give Brown a breather in the nose tackle rotation.
One question that must be asked — and seemingly never goes away — surrounds Byron Cowart: Will he ever become a dominant force and start to resemble the 5-star, can’t-miss prospect he was billed as in high school? Short of that, will he ever develop into more than just a backup?
If Cowart can finally take a step forward — from afterthought to disruptor — the Tigers’ defensive line will morph from “very good” to “great.”
LB
Darrell Williams (strongside), Deshaun Davis (middle), Tre’ Williams (weakside)
Confidence meter: Very confident.
Why? Experience abounds at this spot. All three players have plenty of starting experience, and Darrell Williams specifically seems primed for a breakout campaign. A very solid unit all around, with Montavious Atkinson and a bevy of freshman likely seeing a good deal of playing time, too.
DB
CBs Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean; FS Stephen Roberts, SS Tray Matthews, Javaris Davis at nickel
Confidence meter: Quite confident.
Why? Carlton Davis and Matthews are All-SEC caliber defensive backs. Dean was on the precipice of snagging a starting job last year before suffering a season-ending knee injury in fall camp, which allowed Javaris Davis to move into the lineup. Roberts has started the past two seasons, and appeared in 12 games as a freshman in 2014.
The only real question mark is how the reps behind the starters are divvied up once the season arrives.
Special teams
P Ian Shannon, K Daniel Carlson, PR Stephen Roberts, KR Kerryon Johnson and a host of others (Kam Martin, Devan Barrett, Javaris Davis, Noah Igbinoghene)
Confidence meter: Pretty confident.
Daniel Carlson has twice been a finalist for the Lou Groza Award (nation’s top kicker).
Why? Carlson is arguably the nation’s best kicker. Shannon locked up the starting job during preseason camp. Roberts’ burst on punt return gave the Tigers a weapon they had been lacking since Quan Bray departed after the 2014 season.
Kick return isn’t settled, but Johnson has shown in the past that he can be an asset, as he averaged 27.6 yards per return in 2015. That average would have tied for 10th in the FBS that season if he had enough attempts to qualify. (Interestingly, his teammate that season, Rudy Ford, would have tied for eighth in the country that season thanks to his 28.6-yard-per-return average. But like Johnson, Ford didn’t have enough attempts to qualify for the national leaderboard.)
Ryan Black covers Georgia football for SaturdayDownSouth.com. Follow him on Twitter @RyanABlack.
