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Alabama’s Derrick Henry was a good player through his first two-plus seasons in Tuscaloosa.
Then, starting Oct. 3 at Georgia, he became great.
Once the Tide stopped meddling with the quarterbacks and decided on Jake Coker, an offensive identity took shape: Run the ball with Henry and mix in some play-action passing. His workload started to spike at that point, and he’s at his best as a high-volume guy.
Flash forward to November and December, when Henry carried 38, 46 and 44 times in single games, and 200-yard performances are becoming pretty regular. (He had games of 13, 18 and 13 carries in September.)
Now Henry will match up against one of the most disciplined, well-coached run defenses in the country in the Michigan State Spartans, whose weakness on defense may be defending deep passes. How will Henry perform? And how many carries will he get?
We asked the SDS staff to give an opinion.
HOW MANY RUSHING YARDS WILL DERRICK HENRY ACCRUE VS. MICHIGAN STATE
Chris Wright (@FilmRoomEditor): 150
He won’t go for 404 — shameless plug to a fun piece about a high school coach who asked for Henry’s autograph after allowing him that many yards his senior year at Yulee High — but he might go for half that.
Everybody is making a big deal about Michigan State shutting down Ezekiel Elliott. And the numbers don’t lie — but Alabama will not abandon the run like Urban Meyer did. My favorite quote from the award show media frenzy came when Henry answered our John Hollis’ question about what happens when he faces Alabama’s defense in practice. Henry said: “Oh, I’m gonna get mine.”
He’s gonna get his against the Spartans, too. Anything under 150 would be a Spartans victory.
Tom Brew (@tombrewsports): 154
I think Michigan State is going to go all out to stop Derrick Henry and force quarterback Jake Coker to beat them. Look to see eight in the box all day, and sometimes nine. That said, Alabama wins a slugfest 20-14 and Henry goes for 154 on 35 carries.
John Brasier (@john_brasierSDS): 120
Derrick Henry should get at least 30 carries in a struggle against a tough Michigan State defense. My guess is about 120 yards — unless he breaks one for a big gainer. Henry doesn’t have to have a 200-yard day to give some openings to Jacob Coker and the Alabama passing attack.
Talal Elmasry (@TalalElmasrySDS): 125
I think Derrick Henry will go for 125 rushing yards while not completely dominating the contest like he has in many of Alabama’s previous ones this season. It’s not because Alabama’s running game can’t establish itself against even the likes of a Michigan State rush defense, because it certainly can, and it will to some degree. However, Henry won’t be getting it 40 times because I believe the Tide will find some success through the air against the Spartans pass defense, which ranks 9th in the Big Ten and 68th in the FBS in opponent passer rating (126.6). I’m expecting a balanced approach from Bama in this one.
An itinerant journalist, Christopher has moved between states 11 times in seven years. Formally an injury-prone Division I 800-meter specialist, he now wanders the Rockies in search of high peaks.
