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DFS Picks: Top Sleeper plays for the College Football Playoff National Championship
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The College Football Playoff National Championship kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday night. Ohio State is seeking its first national title since 2014. For Notre Dame, the drought is a bit harsher. After 134 teams were whittled down to 12, only 2 are left standing. And the national champ may very well be decided by a handful of stars who make a handful of plays.
Since the start of the quarterfinals, I’m 5-3 in my player props. I very nearly had a perfect week during the quarters, so let’s shoot to close out the season with a first.
Each of the 4 plays below can be found within the Sleeper app. Use our exclusive Sleeper promo code SOUTHXL to unlock a sign-up offer that scores you $55 in bonus entries when you play your first $5 contest.
Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson higher than 61.5 rushing yards
Both of Penn State’s backs cleared 80 yards against this Notre Dame defensive front. Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen averaged a combined 4.9 yards per carry in the semis. Indiana wasn’t really equipped to run straight at the Irish and Georgia didn’t really try. Henderson can get his in a couple of different ways. If Ohio State comes out throwing haymakers like it did against Tennessee and Oregon, the run will open up. If Notre Dame sells out to shut down Jeremiah Smith and Co., Henderson will have favorable numbers in the box. Henderson has at least 60 yards rushing in 5 of his last 7 appearances, with the only exceptions being against Texas and Michigan. The Wolverines rank 11th nationally in rushing success rate allowed, per Game on Paper. Texas ranks 43rd. Notre Dame ranks 90th.
Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith lower than 5.5 receptions
Notre Dame’s message heading into the national title game is that it plans to do what it has done all season long on defense — play man. The Irish have young corners, but corners who are big and capable of upping the physicality with Ohio State’s receivers. Among cornerbacks with at least 100 snaps in coverage this season, Notre Dame’s top 4 corners — Christian Gray, Leonard Moore, Jordan Clark, and the injured Benjamin Morrison — have 4 of the 9 highest rates of snaps spent in man coverage. All 4 are in man more than 60% of the time. And the structure has been good enough to produce the nation’s best EPA per dropback, per Game on Paper. Notre Dame arguably has the best pass defense in college football and it is missing its top cover corner. Smith is going to get all the attention from this unit. Notre Dame’s ball-hawking safeties are going to know where he is. The corners are going to try to jam him off the line. And Ohio State quarterback Will Howard has been good this postseason about putting the ball where it needs to be rather than forcing it to where he wants it to go. Smith might still make an impact, but he’s going to have to work for it. Notre Dame can’t afford for this to turn into a track meet. (Side note: I imagine this will be a big game for Emeka Egbuka.) It’s also worth noting that Smith has finished with fewer than 6 receptions in 10 of his 15 appearances this season.
Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard lower than 38.5 rushing yards
The Buckeyes are the best team in the country when it comes to limiting opponents on early downs. Per Game on Paper, they’re in the 99th percentile in early-downs EPA per play. Notre Dame is going to want to run the football, control the game flow, and keep Leonard out of obvious passing downs. But doing that against Ohio State is easier said than done. And if Ohio State is able to find a rhythm offensively, Notre Dame could be chasing for much of this game and asking Leonard to drop back and throw the ball downfield. I’m also worried about the matchup between Notre Dame’s tackles and Ohio State’s ends; Leonard might find himself under duress often. He could run for 50 yards but a couple of sacks from JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer — they have 28.5 tackles for loss and 20.5 sacks on the season — might be inevitable.
Notre Dame TE Mitchell Evans higher than 34.5 receiving yards
If the game necessitates throwing the football, Evans will be a benefactor. But Notre Dame might also be targeting him regardless. Ohio State has been susceptible to tight ends all season. Texas tight end Gunnar Helm had 42 yards in the semis. Oregon tight end Terrance Ferguson had 71 yards in the quarters. Four other tight ends this season have gone over 35 receiving yards against the Buckeyes. A ton of attention has been paid to Aneyas Williams (66 receiving yards vs. Penn State) as a potential pressure-release option out of the backfield, but don’t forget the obvious. Evans had 5 catches for 58 yards in the semis. It was the kind of breakout game Notre Dame was hoping for after Evans went for 59 yards against USC in the final game of the regular season. Those are the only 2 games all season where Evans has cleared 35 receiving yards. Still, he is the second-most targeted option in this pass game and I think Notre Dame is going to need him.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
