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ESPN updates SP+ rankings after Week 1; key SEC, ACC teams experience big drops
By Sean Labar
Published:
The Week 1 college football slate is in the books — and after an offseason of speculating and ranking teams based on pure potential despite so much roster movement — there’s now tangible film to see how this year’s crop of teams looks and gives fans, media and coaches a glimpse of their chances to reach the 12-team College Football Playoff.
On Tuesday morning, ESPN released the updated SP+ rankings and there have been some significant drops from teams that were viewed to make a strong run to join the 12-team pool just a week ago before the season kicked off.
Of the 10 teams that fell the most after Week 1 (and a second game for Florida State), there are two ACC recent powerhouses and two SEC squads included.
- Florida State: down 10.0 adjusted points per game (ranking fell from 12th to 30th)
- Clemson: down 9.0 PPG (from 16th to 31st)
- Florida: down 8.2 PPG (from 23rd to 43rd)
- LSU: down 7.7 PPG (from 10th to 20th)
“The ESPN SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency,” Bill Connelly, who created the ranking for ESPN more than two decades ago said. “I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.”
Connelly goes on to explain that the point of the SP+ is to give fans a glimpse of what the future may hold for a given team.
“SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”
Overall, Connelly included the top 25 based on the unique formula after the first slate of games.
Post-Week 1 SP+ Rankings
| TEAM | RATING | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | SPEC TMS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Georgia (1-0) | 34.5 | 45.1 (2) | 10.7 (5) | 0.1 (21) |
| 2. Alabama (1-0) | 30.3 | 44.0 (4) | 13.7 (7) | 0.0 (58) |
| 3. Texas (1-0) | 29.6 | 44.8 (3) | 15.4 (11) | 0.1 (3) |
| 4. Ole Miss (1-0) | 27.6 | 45.1 (1) | 17.4 (14) | 0.0 (97) |
| 5. Ohio St. (1-0) | 27.5 | 35.0 (21) | 7.6 (2) | 0.1 (4) |
| 6. Penn St. (1-0) | 25.3 | 35.3 (18) | 10.0 (4) | -0.1 (109) |
| 7. Missouri (1-0) | 24.4 | 41.1 (8) | 16.9 (13) | 0.1 (15) |
| 8. Oregon (1-0) | 22.8 | 42.4 (6) | 19.5 (25) | 0.0 (77) |
| 9. Tennessee (1-0) | 22.7 | 40.0 (9) | 17.4 (15) | 0.0 (46) |
| 10. Notre Dame (1-0) | 22.1 | 36.6 (17) | 14.6 (9) | 0.0 (45) |
| 11. Oklahoma (1-0) | 21.5 | 37.3 (15) | 15.9 (12) | 0.1 (19) |
| 12. Michigan (1-0) | 20.5 | 29.1 (56) | 8.7 (3) | 0.1 (8) |
| 13. Utah (1-0) | 19.1 | 34.2 (25) | 15.2 (10) | 0.0 (53) |
| 14. Kansas St. (1-0) | 18.8 | 36.9 (16) | 18.2 (19) | 0.1 (16) |
| 15. Miami (1-0) | 17.2 | 38.4 (14) | 21.1 (32) | -0.1 (113) |
| 16. Auburn (1-0) | 17.0 | 35.3 (19) | 18.4 (21) | 0.1 (36) |
| 17. Iowa (1-0) | 15.5 | 19.7 (108) | 4.3 (1) | 0.0 (60) |
| 18. Louisville (1-0) | 15.5 | 33.3 (33) | 17.8 (17) | 0.0 (70) |
| 19. Oklahoma St. (1-0) | 15.5 | 39.1 (11) | 23.7 (39) | 0.1 (38) |
| 20. LSU (0-1) | 15.4 | 41.4 (7) | 26.0 (56) | 0.0 (68) |
| 21. USC (1-0) | 14.3 | 43.3 (5) | 29.0 (77) | 0.0 (55) |
| 22. Kentucky (1-0) | 13.2 | 33.0 (36) | 19.9 (27) | 0.1 (2) |
| 23. Washington (1-0) | 13.1 | 35.2 (20) | 22.0 (37) | 0.0 (71) |
| 24. Texas A&M (0-1) | 12.8 | 33.1 (35) | 20.4 (28) | 0.1 (23) |
| 25. Kansas (1-0) | 12.7 | 38.5 (13) | 25.8 (53) | -0.1 (103) |
It’s also interesting to note Connelly currently has the ESPN SP+ predicting a SEC College Football Playoff championship game between Alabama and Georgia, with the Bulldogs pulling off a close win.
Sean Labar is an SEC football contributor for Saturday Down South.
