ESPN’s FPI predicts outcome of every game on Alabama’s 2024 schedule

Alabama football isn’t quite what it used to be. Since the dawning of the NIL era and the departure of legendary head coach Nick Saban, the culture has changed some and the landscape has shifted. Enter Kalen DeBoer in his first year of ever coaching the Crimson Tide after a great successful season at Washington.

The Crimson Tide have the pieces, but there are some serious questions in play. One of the biggest of those is as to whether or not quarterback Jalen Milroe will rise to the occasion and actually be a Heisman Trophy candidate. Many have pegged Milroe to compete for award, and he is among the top players in the latest 2024 Heisman odds produced by DraftKings.

So, how exactly could Alabama football’s season play out in 2024? Here’s a look at ESPN’s FPI’s win probabilities for Alabama in each of its regular season games.

Highest probability win games:

• Nov. 16 – Mercer Bears – Alabama win, 99% (the correct number should be 100%)

• Aug. 31 – Western Kentucky Hilltoppers – Alabama win, 97.4%

• Sept. 7 – South Florida Bulls – Alabama win, 96.2%

• Oct. 5 – Vanderbilt Commodores – Alabama win, 89.8%

• Oct. 12 – South Carolina Gamecocks – Alabama win, 86.2%

• Sept. 7 – Wisconsin Badgers – Alabama win, 81.3%

• Nov. 30 – Auburn Tigers – Alabama win, 80.1%

Most difficult games of the season:

• Oct. 25 – Missouri Tigers – Alabama win, 70%

• Nov. 9 – LSU Bengal Tigers – Alabama win, 63.3%

• Oct. 19 – Tennessee Vols – Alabama win, 58%

• Nov. 23 – Oklahoma Sooners – Alabama win, 51.2%

• Sept. 28 – Georgia Bulldogs – Alabama win, 40.9%

Overall, the FPI gives Alabama a projected final record of 9.3-3.0. That would likely keep the Tide on the fringe of the Playoff picture throughout the season.

It will be interesting to watch how things unfold as the Crimson Tide kick off the season against WKU on Aug. 31.

Crissy Froyd

Crissy covers SEC football news for Saturday Down South.