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The Fearless Prediction sweated out the result of the Tennessee/Florida game, but in the end met the challenge. We thank Florida coach Billy Napier for his support while managing a Butch Jones-esque game at Neyland Stadium.
It has been such a weird series the past couple of decades that the Vols were absolutely due in winning a game that they probably didn’t deserve to win.
Two years ago, the Vols finally got the football gods on their side vs. their even more hated rivals, the Alabama Crimson Tide. That 52-49 classic snapped UT’s 15-year losing streak against the Tide and sparked a wild celebration that included goalposts being tossed in the Tennessee River.
Can the No. 11 Vols win back-to-back home games against the No. 7 Crimson Tide for the first time since 2006? We are about to find out.
Back on the morning of Saturday, Oct. 4, the Tennessee/Alabama game looked like it was going to be a massive matchup of 6-0 SEC foes. Then, the Tide lost at Vanderbilt and the Vols fell at Arkansas. A week later Alabama survived against an average South Carolina squad by only 2 points while Tennessee needed overtime to beat a mediocre Florida team.
The blooms are off the Crimson and Orange roses … but Saturday afternoon presents the opportunity for one of these Playoff contenders to be like Stella and get their groove back.
(Cricket sounds)
No Angela Bassett fans out there? Shame shame shame.
Tennessee’s offense looked unstoppable during the first 3 weeks of the season, but they slowed down a great deal as the schedule got tougher. They are still ranked 9th in total offense (484.5 yards per game) and scoring offense (42.2 points per game) in the FBS, but at times it’s a real struggle bus when it comes to moving the football.
In the Florida game, Nico Iamaleava took some shots downfield but rarely connected. The Vols’ longest completion was a mere 24 yards. They desperately need that aspect of this offense to improve. That means the offensive line must give Iamaleava more time, and receivers Bru McCoy and Dont’e Thornton, Jr. have to make some plays. Those guys have only caught 4 passes in the past 2 games.
Dylan Sampson continues to be the offensive MVP. He’s 2nd in the country with 15 rushing TDs and is averaging 116.8 yards per game; Sampson has helped make up for the ills of the passing attack.
The Vols’ defense has been nothing but spectacular through the opening half of the schedule. They wait for Alabama as the 2nd-ranked group in the country, allowing less than 250 yards per game. They are 4th in points allowed, giving up only 10.7 points per game. They haven’t surrendered more than 19 points in a game this season.
But that group was dealt a huge blow when LB Keenan Pili suffered another season-ending injury, this time a torn ACL in his right knee. Pili is a defensive captain, and was tied for the team lead with 29 tackles.
The Vols will sorely miss Pili’s presence and need sophomore Jeremiah Telander to step up in his absence.
As for Alabama, they are ranked 35th in total offense (442.3 yards per game) and 10th in scoring (41.7 points per game). Jalen Milroe has accounted for 23 TDs and over 300 yards of offense, while completing 73% of his passes. The Vols have not faced a QB as good or as versatile as Milroe so far this season. They also haven’t had to deal with a receiver the quality of freshman Ryan Williams. The 17-year-old leads the team in receptions (23), receiving yards (96 per game) and TD catches (6).
Jamarion Miller rushes for 60 yards per game. Alabama hasn’t asked him to do more and he’ll have a challenge getting going against a terrific Vols defensive front.
Alabama LB’s Jihaad Campbell and Deontae Lawson have combined for 101 tackles, placing them among the best in the SEC. But this is not your typical Alabama defense. They are ranked 55th nationally in total defense, and their secondary was exposed in the 2nd half of the Georgia game and then against Vanderbilt and South Carolina.
Remember all those big plays from Hendon Hooker and Jalin Hyatt in the 2022 game? I’m not saying Iamaleava will be able to match that output, but the opportunity just might be there against those Alabama defensive backs.
It’s difficult to get a feel for this game. It would be a huge surprise to see the scoreboard light up as much as we did 2 years ago. Neither squad looks like an SEC title winning group at the moment. Sportsbooks such as FanDuel favor the Tide by just 2.5 points.
The Fearless Prediction doesn’t shy away from the challenge. That said, we do not suggest placing your kid’s 529 plan dollars on this prognostication.
Fearless Prediction time …
Alabama 24, Tennessee 21
Mark Nagi has covered Tennessee athletics for over 20 years. He is the author of “Decade of Dysfunction,” an in-depth look at all that led to the crazy coaching search of 2017 at Tennessee. The book is available on Amazon.
