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The Fearless Prediction took a well earned 2 weeks off … but there’s only so much time you can spend basking in the sunlight of Utica, NY. It’s time to get back to work, with a rock fight of a battle upcoming as the Vols head to Arkansas.
Tennessee is 4-0 and firmly ranked in the top 5 nationally. Hard to have foreseen this day coming 4 years ago when Jeremy Pruitt was leading the Vols to a 3-7 COVID season and NCAA probation.
The Vols are not only surviving these days, but thriving with talented offensive skill players for QB Nico Iamaleava to distribute the football, and a ferocious defense that has not given UT fans any serious reason for worry through the first month of the season.
Let’s start by talking about that defense. Through 4 games, the Vols have allowed only 704 yards, fewest in the FBS. They are tied for 2nd nationally in giving up only 7 points per game. They also surrender only 50.8 yards rushing per game (2nd nationally) while averaging 7.8 tackles for loss per game (tied for 12th).
LBs Arion Carter and Keenan Pili lead the way with 15 and 14 tackles, respectively. Tyre West already has 3.5 TFLs and 2 sacks to top the team in both categories.
This defense is deep, talented, and shows no signs of slowing down.
Tennessee’s offense leads the FBS in scoring with 54 points per game and is 3rd in total offense, racking up 565.8 yards per contest. RB Dylan Sampson averages 112.5 rushing yards per game, and has scored 10 TDs. Dont’e Thornton Jr. has turned into the coveted deep threat in the passing game, with 3 of his 7 catches going for scores, while averaging 35 yards per catch.
Iamaleava didn’t have his best game last time out against Oklahoma, as he was responsible for 2 turnovers while throwing for less than 200 yards. But Josh Heupel coached that game much the same way as Phillip Fulmer used to when the Vols were rolling in during the 1990s and 2000s.
Heupel took the air out of the football, and slowed his fast-paced offense to what felt like a crawl in the second half. He wasn’t going to put his redshirt freshman QB in a position in which he could lose the game, relying on a defense that was in control of the Sooners.
Don’t fret, Vols fans … there will be plenty of opportunities to show why Iamaleava is expected to be playing in the NFL in a few years.
As for those Razorbacks, they are 3-2 and coming off a neutral site loss to Texas A&M.
Offensively they look better this season thanks in part to the return of former head coach Bobby Petrino as offensive coordinator. The Razorbacks are 13th in the country in total offense (495 yards per game) while scoring over 35 points per game.
Boise State transfer QB Taylen Green can make plays with his feet, rushing for over 66 yards per game. But if Arkansas is going to pull the upset (Tennessee is a 13.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook), he must improve on his woeful 54% completion rate. Redshirt senior WR Andrew Armstrong is Green’s top target, already connecting with him 29 times. RB Ja’Quinden Jackson, a Utah transfer redshirt senior, is averaging nearly 102 rushing yards per game.
Arkansas’ defense is fairly average, ranked 47th in total defense and 46th in scoring defense. They do have 4 players with at least 23 tackles, with LB Xavian Sorey, Jr. at the top of the list with 32 tackles and 4 TFLs.
This isn’t a marquee game on the Vols’ schedule. Vols fans are already looking toward the next 2 weeks, with Florida and Alabama coming to Knoxville. The anticipation for those 2 games is at a very high level if ticket prices on the secondary market are any indication.
But Tennessee can’t afford to look past Arkansas. Sam Pittman, a former Vols assistant, might need a win like this one to secure a 6th season.
The bye week came at a pretty good time for the Vols. LT Lance Heard, who was sorely missed at Oklahoma and part of the reason Iamaleava was under constant pressure, was not listed on Tennessee’s initial availability report. His potential return could be a big boost for the offense.
The Fearless Prediction is not going to talk himself out of what seems to be fairly obvious: The Vols have a better overall roster and a better coaching staff. They’ll return home 5-0, setting themselves up for what could be a historic homestand.
Fearless Prediction time …
Tennessee 37, Arkansas 23
Mark Nagi has covered Tennessee athletics for over 20 years. He is the author of “Decade of Dysfunction,” an in-depth look at all that led to the crazy coaching search of 2017 at Tennessee. The book is available on Amazon.
