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It’s sad that the greatest sport in the world has the shortest season. Hard to believe that this is the last full Saturday of action in 2024. Seems like just yesterday we were watching Georgia Tech upset Florida State in Dublin. Well, at least we thought it was an upset back in late August.
The Fearless Prediction would like to wish you and yours the happiest of Thanksgivings. In between checks on the turkey fryer to make sure we don’t burn down the neighborhood, we have done our painstaking research on the biggest game of the year for Tennessee. On Saturday, the Vols make the short trip to Nashville to face in-state rival Vanderbilt. This game gets an 11 am CT kickoff, bringing back memories of every announcer being named Dave, what looked like only a 3-camera setup, and a 1st down and 10 line a couple of yards away from accuracy.
RIP, Jefferson Pilot Sports.
If you made a deal with Tennessee fans at the beginning of the season that if the Vols beat Vandy they’d make the Playoff, but a loss would knock them out, they would take you up on that offer 100 times out of 100. There are a few exceptions, but the Vols have dominated the Commodores pretty much since General Neyland became UT’s coach in 1926.
Most recently, the Vols have won the past 5 in the series (although the 2019 and 2020 wins were officially vacated due to recruiting violations under Jeremy Pruitt). Saturday, the Vols are favored to win by 11, via DraftKings Sportsbook.
But Vanderbilt isn’t a patsy anymore. Clark Lea has seen a breakthrough in this, his 4th season in charge. Wins over Alabama, Virginia Tech and Auburn opened a lot of eyes around the sport, as did a close game against Texas. Lately they’ve come back down to earth a bit after losses to South Carolina and LSU, but the Commodores are 6-5, heading to a bowl game, and relishing the opportunity to end the Vols’ Playoff dreams.
Vandy’s difference-maker is QB Diego Pavia, a New Mexico State transfer who has changed the program’s fortunes. Pavia, who by the way is suing the NCAA in an effort to get more eligibility, has thrown for over 2,000 yards with 16 TDs and only 3 INTs. But the biggest concern for the Vols’ defense is Pavia’s mobility. He leads the Vols with 671 yards rushing and 6 TDs. Math tells us that Pavia averages 61 rushing yards per game.
Overall this Vandy offense doesn’t scare opposing defenses very much. Ranked 77th nationally at 27 points per game and a woeful 116th in the FBS in total offense with 329.2 yards per game, the Vols will have opportunities to get off the field quickly … if they can keep Pavia contained.
Defensively the Commodores are led by a pair of sophomore LBs. Bryan Longwell leads the team in tackles with 70, including 7.5 tackles for loss. Randon Fontenette has 64 tackles and 3.5 sacks. As a unit, they give up 21.9 points per game.
Tennessee is coming off a 56-0 dismantling of UTEP on Senior Day at Neyland Stadium. It was a bounce back after a demoralizing 31-17 loss at Georgia, which for a time appeared to give their playoff hopes a kick in the pants. But thanks to some chaos (fraudulent Ole Miss, overrated Indiana, offensively challenged Alabama, etc.), the Vols ended last Saturday in prime position to make the playoffs.
Offensively the Vols are still among the best in the nation, tied for 12th in scoring (37.4 points per game) and 11th in total offense (456.1 points per game). RB Dylan Sampson has been spectacular, rushing for 1,307 yards and scoring a single season program record 22 TDs.
Sometimes it is difficult to remember that QB Nico Iamaleava is only a redshirt freshman. Iamaleava still has thrown for 2,255 yards with 15 TDs and 4 INTs, while completing 65% of his tosses. Tennessee is so close to hitting some of those big plays in the passing game, and this weekend would be a great time to do it.
Tennessee’s defense is championship caliber, and UT will need them to play that way. Sophomore LB Arian Carter is having a terrific season with a team-leading 58 tackles. Edge rusher James Pearce Jr. is going to make a lot of money in the NFL next year, and now leads the Vols with 11 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks.
It’s difficult to win on the road, especially in the SEC. With the exception of Texas, each of the top teams in the conference have had their issues away from home. Tennessee’s record under Josh Heupel in true road games is 7-9, and only 6-9 in SEC road games.
On paper this is a true road game, but over the decades we’ve seen the Nashville matchups in this rivalry basically be a neutral site. There will be a lot of orange in FirstBank Stadium, and they’ll be loud.
Vandy fans would love to throw another goalpost into the Cumberland River, but Tennessee is going to make sure those wearing black and gold stay in their seats. The Vols will continue their control of this series with an impressive performance.
Fearless Prediction time …
Tennessee 34, Vanderbilt 13
Mark Nagi has covered Tennessee athletics for over 20 years. He is the author of “Decade of Dysfunction,” an in-depth look at all that led to the crazy coaching search of 2017 at Tennessee. The book is available on Amazon.
