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I’d love to go back in time.
I could apply that sentence to a billion things, but for today’s discussion, I’d like to apply it specifically to the summer of 2021. Florida was coming off its third consecutive New Year’s 6 bowl under Dan Mullen, who finally got the coveted new contract that made him 1 of the 5 highest-paid coaches in the sport. To beef up the intrigue of Florida’s nonconference slate, Florida and UCF finally granted college football fans their wish by settling on a 2-for-1 series, beginning in 2024.
That came after UCF ran a billboard ad in Gainesville that said “124 miles to the future of college football” with a fist-pumping, photo-shopped Gus Malzahn. At the time, it could be scoffed at by Florida fans who saw it as nothing more than an aggressive marketing strategy by a Group of 5 power that had just lost a coach to a traditional powerhouse program for the 2nd time in 3 years.
Three years later, “ambitious” is how that billboard could be described. UCF is a solid, but not game-changing 27-17 under Malzahn having gone 4-7 in conference play since it made the move up to the Big 12 in 2023.
But the desired time machine wouldn’t be to humble UCF; it would be to humble Florida.
At the time, nobody could’ve predicted that by the time it hosted UCF in 2024, Florida would be trying to:
- A) End a streak of 3 consecutive losing seasons
- B) Beat an FBS team in The Swamp for the first time in a year
- C) Avoid a second consecutive loss to UCF
- D) Beat UCF as a home underdog
- E) All the above
It’s “E.” It’s always “E.”
Humbling? You bet. Nothing would be more humbling for Florida than watching UCF make that 124-mile trip to Gainesville and run all over the porous Florida defense, especially after Colorado found the answers for the Knights last week in Orlando.
So will that happen on Saturday night?
Let’s break that down with some final thoughts (and a prediction):
You already know what the most lopsided matchup is
But we have to break it down because it’s truly alarming. Well, unless you’re reading this as a UCF fan. Then I’d call it “exciting” or “mouth-watering.”
OK, maybe a bit too far on that. But tell me this isn’t a mouth-watering matchup for the UCF ground attack, which ranks No. 2 among FBS programs and No. 1 among non-service academy programs at 326 rushing yards/contest. Florida allowed an average of 231 rushing yards in 3 games against FBS competition, and in those FBS games, nobody has been run against more than the Gators (48 attempts/FBS game). In Florida’s last game in The Swamp, Texas A&M had a first-time starting quarterback lead a 3-headed rushing attack that racked up 310 yards on the ground en route to a blowout win.
(If you don’t think that was a blowout win because Florida made it a 13-point game with a touchdown in the final 5 minutes, we were watching different games.)
So in steps the familiar KJ Jefferson, who is the opposite of a first-time starter. Shoot, it’s not even his first time starting in The Swamp. He more recently has a win there than Graham Mertz because it was Jefferson who led 4-win Arkansas to an overtime victory there last November.
Yeah, that’s stunning.
Related: Looking to place a bet on the 2024 Heisman Trophy? SDS has you covered with all the latest odds!
Stunning would be Florida finding the answers to contain UCF’s rushing attack after it let a previously lifeless Mississippi State ground game rack up 240 yards. Nobody should expect Florida to find answers during the bye week. Why? Because the Gators couldn’t find answers in an 8-month offseason. In November last year, the Gators allowed 206 rushing yards/game on 5.7 yards/carry. Billy Napier’s answer to those run-game woes was hiring his former Louisiana DC Ron Roberts, who had more recently been fired at the end of the past 2 seasons by Baylor and Auburn. He was named the play-caller while 2023 Florida DC Austin Armstrong was demoted to co-defensive coordinator. So far, no good.
UCF’s versatility in the ground game will present a unique challenge. It’s not just the bruising Jefferson. RJ Harvey is the more traditional feature back having already racked up 525 yards on the ground, though he can present problems as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, too. The well-traveled Peny Boone is off to a slower start, but he’s a former 1,400-yard back who can also pack a punch at 232 pounds. Fellow transfer back, but shiftier Myles Montgomery could also get some work in the likely event that UCF pounds the rock.
It’s a simple formula for Malzahn and Co. It’s up to Florida to stop it.
Is it possible we see Tre Wilson? And what if he’s still out?
Mertz would love to have his primary target back after a knee injury hampered the first month of his season. The Florida receiver’s availability has been a bit touch-and-go. While Wilson underwent minor knee surgery ahead of the Mississippi State game, and Napier played it coy when speaking about the possibility of him returning for the UCF game:
Napier says Tre Wilson has “done some things in practice. He took some reps today.”
“We feel good about his progress.”
— Nick Marcinko (@marcinko_nick) October 2, 2024
In other words, don’t expect to hear anything more on that front until pregame warmups. After all, availability reports aren’t required in nonconference games.
If Wilson returns to action for the first time since Week 2, it’d be a welcome sight for a Florida offense that was held in check against both Miami and Texas A&M. Those elite defensive lines forced Mertz into some quick decisions, and without a safety valve like Wilson, he struggled.
The good news for Florida is that if Wilson isn’t cleared, UCF doesn’t figure to apply the same sort of pressure that Miami and A&M did. The Knights are second-worst in FBS with just 3 sacks through 4 games, 2 of which came against that porous Colorado offensive line. That explains why they’re No. 106 in FBS against the pass having just surrendered 290 yards to Shedeur Sanders.
Mertz doesn’t have the mobility of Sanders to keep plays alive, but he might not need it if Florida can prevent the struggling UCF pass rush from having a breakout game.
No matter what script plays out, we should still expect an actual DJ Lagway role early
Against Mississippi State when Florida stayed on script, we saw Lagway play essentially every third series. That script was followed in part because Mertz got whatever he wanted in the passing game. Napier didn’t have to decide if Lagway needed reps in a game that Florida was trailing because that never happened.
But against A&M, Mertz and Lagway traded off series. Those reps were still limited because Florida’s defense couldn’t get off the field against the Aggies’ rushing attack. If that plays out again, it’s hard to imagine a 2-quarterback system finding much rhythm unless it hits on a few chunk plays early on and this turns into a back-and-forth shootout.
That’s where Lagway comes in. His ability to stretch the field has to come into play in a matchup like this where either Florida quarterback should have time to go through their progressions. Without Wilson, Elijah Badger has emerged as a deep weapon. One would think that Napier will have spent the bye week on an opening script that gives him a couple of those opportunities, either from Mertz or Lagway.
Speaking of Napier off a bye week …
Billy Napier off a bye has been _________.
“Uninspiring.”
And yes, I realize that it’s a bit unfair to just base that on his time at Florida because obviously, “off a bye” means “your record vs. Georgia.” Napier is 0-2 in those games, but at Louisiana, he was just 3-3. So that’s a 3-5 mark coming off the bye during his 6-plus seasons as a head coach.
Not ideal. It’s also not ideal that after Florida’s 8-month offseason of “toughest schedule in college football history” and hot-seat talk, Napier followed that up by going full Green Day to start the season. As in, “wake me up when September ends.”
September is over. The question is if Florida’s disastrous 2024 start is also in the rearview mirror.
And a prediction … UCF 35, Florida 24
Ask yourself this, Florida fans. At this point, would that result truly surprise you? If by night’s end, UCF racked up 300 rushing yards after following the A&M blueprint, would you go to sleep in stunned disbelief?
I wouldn’t. That’s the problem. Even the win against Mississippi State showed Florida’s glaring weakness in defending the run. Until we actually see some answers in that department, how can anyone trust that the Gators will contain the thing that UCF does best? It’s not complicated.
Sure, it’s possible that Colorado DC Robert Livingston just provided Florida with an ideal plan to contain UCF. But even if there are the right schematic adjustments made, that’ll be easier said than done with how much the Gators have struggled to get off blocks in the first month of the season.
This would be a new low for Napier. Losing at home to the in-state program that your boss scheduled as a Group of 5, 2-for-1 matchup would be an optics nightmare. Then again, it would also be full circle for Napier. The last game that the Gators played before he took over was the 2021 Gasparilla Bowl against UCF. For Florida, that was also a 2-score loss coming off extra rest.
On Saturday night, all signs point to history repeating itself.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
