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DJ Lagway shown playing in a Florida football game.
College Football

3 matchups that will define Ole Miss at Florida (and a predication)

Neil Blackmon

By Neil Blackmon

Published:

Ole Miss visits Gainesville for the first time in a decade on Saturday when the No. 9 Rebels take on the improved Gators on Senior Day in The Swamp (Noon, ABC). Florida hasn’t defeated a ranked team on Senior Day in The Swamp since the Urban Meyer era.

It’s a game with juicy storylines and big implications on both sidelines.

Ole Miss needs a win to remain the hunt for a College Football Playoff at-large berth.

Florida needs a win to become bowl eligible, which seemed extremely unlikely just 3 weeks ago when their sensational freshman quarterback, DJ Lagway, was carted off the field at the Cocktail Party with the Gators in control of the game in the first half.

The game features at least 4 coaches who are close friends: head coaches Lane Kiffin of Ole Miss and Billy Napier of Florida, and defensive coordinators Pete Golding of Ole Miss and Ron Roberts of Florida.

Kiffin has become one of the brighter stars in the sport since working with Napier under Nick Saban at Alabama. He’s won a New Year’s 6 game at Ole Miss and has the program on the verge of a College Football Playoff, winning 42 games in Oxford since taking over in 2020. Last year, he led Ole Miss to its first 11-win season in program history — after guiding them to their first 10-win regular season in 2021.

Napier has pulled his job out of the fire with improved play down the stretch, including a win over rival LSU last week, quelling loud “Kiffin to Florida” rumors in the process. And yes, Kiffin has always eyed the Florida job as one of a handful in college football that you simply can’t turn down. The fact that Kiffin and a committed administration have built a strong infrastructure to succeed at Ole Miss doesn’t change that reality.

Those relationships, coupled with a number of players with Florida roots on the Ole Miss roster, adds familiarity to Saturday’s game in The Swamp.

Here are 3 matchups that will define the football game.

Pete Golding’s pressure with 4 vs. Florida’s OL

Pete Golding’s defense is very similar to what DJ Lagway practices against at Florida.

Florida co-defensive coordinator Ron Roberts is one of Golding’s mentors, having hired him twice — once at Delta State and again at Southeastern Louisiana.

“There is a whole lot of Ron’s defense in what Pete wants to do,” an SEC assistant told SDS last week, asking to be quoted anonymously in order to speak candidly. “They will give up some yards, but they want to get pressure consistently, limit explosives in the pass games in coverage. They are also both so good at simplifying things for personnel. It’s a superpower Pete got from Ron. You can tell Pete took a lot from their time together.”

Golding’s defense is among the best in America this season, making the 40-year-old coordinator a legitimate candidate for the Broyles Award, honoring the best assistant coach in college football.

The Rebels rank 16th in the country in total defense, 5th in yards allowed per play and 8th in success rate defense, a statistic that measures how often an opponent’s play is successful given down and distance. A play is successful when it gains 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.

Golding is known for creative pressures, but this season, he has played a more simplified version of his defense, largely thanks to his ability to dial up pressure with just 4 up front. A cadre of elite pass rushers has made that venture a bit easier this season. Two Ole Miss pressures against Georgia and South Carolina demonstrate how this has operated this season.

Here, Princely Umanmielen simply whips Georgia’s tackle on a speed rush. Umanmielen, the Florida transfer who ripped the Gators’ coaching staff upon his arrival in Oxford this summer, leads the SEC in quarterback pressures. But he’s not the only one capable of getting home.

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On the above play, Suntarine Perkins is a spy on the mobile LaNorris Sellers, with Golding trusting that edge Jared Ivey can win a 1-on-1 against South Carolina’s right tackle. Ivey does, forcing Sellers to step up in the pocket, where Perkins is waiting to pounce for the sack. What’s also notable about this play is that Ole Miss generates this pressure without Walter Nolen, one of the SEC’s best interior linemen, in to generate an inside push. Nolen has 4 sacks this season.

The Gators enter the game having allowed just 13 sacks, tied for fewest in the SEC. Ole Miss leads the nation in sacks with 46. The Rebels don’t “out talent” the Gators from a 247 composite standpoint, but they do have a big talent edge on the defensive line and edge, with 5-star players like Perkins and Nolen and proven All-SEC commodities like Umanmielen. Ole Miss has 6 pass rushers who grade out as “plus” pass rushers, per PFF.

If Florida can’t block Ole Miss, the Rebels will make short order of the Gators.

And Golding’s Cover 3 and Cover 7 concepts vs. DJ Lagway

With so much ability to generate pressure with his core 4, Golding has been able to mix up coverages more than ever this season.

Still, his favorite concept remains to play Cover 7 when facing 3-receiver, 1-back pistol looks like those favored by Florida. If an opponent brings an extra tight end into the play to protect, they’ll switch quickly to Cover 6. This is a concept Golding fine tuned working with Nick Saban at Alabama.

This play looks like straight “quarters” pre-snap, but is not. Instead of dividing the field into fourths, like traditional quarters, the defenders drop but will attach to a receiver who runs a route more than 5 yards in length. If the receiver stays inside or runs a short route, the dropping corners are essentially in zone, and they’ll allow the shorter routes to transfer to another member of the defense.

The other core principles of Cover 7 is that Golding’s defense always retains a numbers advantage — here 3 on the weak side to the offense’s 2 players, and 4 on the strong side to the offense’s 3. Finally, by having corners attach to route runners whose routes go more than 5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, Golding gets to keep 2 safeties high. This allows the Rebels to guard against the explosives a defense can be susceptible too if a safety is charged with playing zone closer to the line of scrimmage.

It also prevents the type of single-high looks upon which Lagway has feasted this season.

https://twitter.com/onlygators/status/1857929203108426216

This throw against LSU became open because LSU cheated a safety for run support and a corner feigned pressure. By the time both recover, Lagway has stepped up and delivered a strike to Elijhah Badger to set up the winning touchdown.

Here’s another Lagway strike against single-high coverage. Florida uses pre-snap motion that usually signals run and the deep safety cheats. A corner then drops to protect the deep ball, but he can’t get over quick enough. Without a second high safety to help, Badger ends up with a free release and Lagway makes a great throw to hit him in stride for a huge gain.

Ole Miss will almost certainly not show Lagway any single-high looks. The Rebels do play Cover 3 on 45% of their zone snaps, per Stats Solutions. That’s a look Lagway has also clobbered, especially against Kentucky, when he lit the Wildcats up for 4 explosives of 30 yards or more against Cover 3 looks. Two of the throws came on flood concepts up the seam, where the weakness of the Cover 3 lies. Ole Miss likes to gobble that up with their elite pass rush, forcing quarterbacks to be precise under high pressure.

Here, Carson Beck has a flood concept on his right and tries to hit a crosser in the seam of the zone. It’s the look Mike Bobo wants, and he even has extra protection on one side. Umanmielen wins a 1-on-1, though, and Beck throws behind the receiver for a turnover.

Ole Miss will be the best defense Lagway has played for a full game this season. If Golding can confuse him with some zone looks, the Rebels will win. The good news for the Gators is Lagway has been terrific against Cover 3 and there’s very little Golding does schematically that Lagway hasn’t seen at practice from Roberts. Familiarity is a freshman’s best friend, but it hits different at game speed.

Moving away from the Ole Miss defense and the Gators offense, matchup 3 is all about Jaxson Dart.

Jaxson Dart vs. Florida’s QB ability to contain

The lazy third matchup would be Florida’s banged-up secondary against Ole Miss’ explosive pass game. That’s a lazy view, though, because Ole Miss is going to hit some big pass plays.

Ole Miss has 4 receivers with 20 receptions or more who average more than 16 yards per catch. The Rebels will also get All-American candidate Tre Harris back from a month-long injury for the Florida game, a huge boost to an already lethal offense. That means more Dart dimes like this one.

Instead, the fascinating matchup is how Dart handles Florida’s pressure and QB containment scheme.

The Gators have handled mobile quarterbacks well this season, with Miami quarterback Cam Ward’s brilliant performance Week 1 the notable exception. Other mobile quarterbacks have struggled against Florida, from UCF’s KJ Jefferson to Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava.

Dart is a different beast from them, save perhaps Ward. Dart enters the Florida game the No. 2-ranked quarterback in the Power 4, per PFF’s quarterback grade system. He leads the SEC in passing yards, passing efficiency, yards per attempt and touchdown passes and ranks No. 2, behind only Lagway, in average depth of target and explosive pass success rate. He’s also a lethal and physical runner.

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In games against mobile quarterbacks, Florida has used linebacker Shemar James, the reigning SEC Defensive Player of the Week, as a spy to contain the quarterback run.

The issue, of course, is it will force Roberts to trust his defensive line to get pressure with 4. The Gators simply can’t afford to spy Dart and bring additional bodies for pressure. The Rebels stress you too much with their playmakers to lose that many helmets.

The Gators rank an underrated 5th in the SEC this season in pressures generated and they are coming off a 7-sack performance against LSU, who entered the Florida game having surrendered just 6 sacks all season. If Dart has time to throw, there’s no one better in the sport with a clean pocket.

Like Golding, Roberts isn’t afraid to give up some yards. Florida will almost certainly spy Dart, limit his running game prowess, and try to pressure with their front 4. If it works, we’ll have a ball game on Saturday.

Prediction: Ole Miss 31, Florida 23

Ole Miss is favored by 10, via DraftKings Sportsbook. I am 7-3 on Florida picks this year ATS and 8-2 overall, but this was probably the toughest since UCF to gauge. The Gators are flying high off what I think is the biggest win of the Napier era. They are at home, where they have been terrific the past 3 games after blowout home losses to Texas A&M and Miami spoiled their September.

The Rebels are hot and they are well-rested and as healthy as they’ve been in a long time. Ole Miss has a talent edge defensive line vs. offensive line and they have the SEC’s best quarterback and receiver group playing a banged-up UF secondary missing 3 starters.

The warning signs are there for the Gators, but I think Florida competes and makes it a ball game before Dart and Harris put it to bed for the Rebels with a connection late.

Neil Blackmon

Neil Blackmon covers Florida football and the SEC for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.

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