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Florida vs. UCF: 3 key matchups and a prediction

Neil Blackmon

By Neil Blackmon

Published:

Florida and UCF will meet for just the 4th time on Saturday night when the Knights visit The Swamp (7:45 PM, SEC Network).

The Gators are coming off a bye following their best performance of the season in a 45-28 rout of Mississippi State.

The Knights limp into Gainesville after being blown out 48-21 at home in the Bounce House by Deion Sanders and Colorado.

Billy Napier is just 5-6 against power conference foes in The Swamp, and 3 of those victories came in 2022, his first season in Gainesville.

To put that 5-6 home record into proper perspective, consider that Florida was the 2nd-best team in college football at home from 1990-2020, behind only Alabama. Or consider that in 12 years as head coach in Gainesville, Steve Spurrier went 68-5 in The Swamp.

The aura of invincibility of Florida when playing in The Swamp has all but vanished, but the environment remains one of the best and loudest in college football. Hosting a night game against an in-state opponent that fancies itself as a rival and peer of the Gators, you can bet The Swamp will be rocking.

The game matters immensely to both programs.

For at least a decade, UCF has hoped to be included in the conversation with the traditional “Big Three” programs in the state of Florida (Florida, FSU, Miami). The Knights finally defeated the Gators in the 2021 Gasparilla Bowl, but in that game, they faced a Florida team led by an interim coach and without a host of opt-outs following the firing of Dan Mullen. A win in The Swamp would feel more validating for UCF fans, despite Florida once again having a precarious coaching situation.

Here are 3 matchups that will define the game for the Gators, who are in desperate need of a win if they hope to have any chance at avoiding a 4th straight losing season for the first time since 1935-1938.

KJ Jefferson’s ability to make explosive plays for potent UCF ground game

UCF coach Gus Malzahn had to be salivating when he watched the film of Florida’s run defense.

The former Auburn coach is one of the sport’s top rushing offense minds, and the Gators have hemorrhaged yards on the ground in 2024, surrendering 275 yards rushing per game at a 4.95 yard per rush clip in their past 2 games alone.

Jefferson, the former Arkansas QB, is a quality runner and he’s surrounded by a nice 3-man rotation at running back in RJ Harvey, Peny Boone and Myles Montgomery, each of whom average at least 6.4 yards per rush. While those numbers are a bit inflated by the early-season cupcakes, the Knights still rushed for 233 yards per game at a 5.0 yard per carry rate against the 2 power conference opponents they have faced (TCU and Colorado).

Harvey is a speedy, patient back who runs with outstanding leg drive thanks to a low center of gravity (he stands just 5-9) and compact frame. If he gets to the second level, he’s difficult to catch.

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He’s also a huge part of what UCF does in the passing game, which should surprise no one who has watched a Malzahn offense over the past decade.

The Knights use the running game to create everything else, and they are explosive running the football. UCF leads the country in explosive running plays (46 of 10 yards or more) and they rank 5th in the country in runs of 20 or more yards (15).

Jefferson and Harvey in particular are loads to bring down, which will challenge a Florida team that misses 39.5% of its tackles, ranking 14th in the SEC.

Last season, remember, Jefferson led Arkansas to a win in The Swamp. He passed for 255 yards and 2 TDs, and also ran for 92 yards and another score. That was Arkansas’ only SEC win in 2023.

To help, Florida will almost certainly bring an extra player into the box, whether it is a safety or an additional linebacker, which may depend on down and distance. To counter this, Malzahn uses a host of RPO concepts where KJ Jefferson can pull and pass if a safety or added linebacker cheats to stop the run.

The Knights aren’t as explosive in the passing game, ranking 114th in passes of 15 yards or more. But the Knights hit just enough of those passes to make you respect them over the top — and Florida surrenders so much in the ground game that a leaky coverage or two seems inevitable Saturday night.

Kobe Hudson vs. Jason Marshall Jr.

Hudson has been outstanding, averaging 87 yards per game receiving and scoring 2 touchdowns, including the game winner in UCF’s comeback win over TCU. The Auburn transfer has graded out at 80.7 this season, per PFF, making him one of the top 30 receivers in college football.

Florida’s secondary has allowed 20 explosive plays this season, ranking 75th in the country. But in senior Jason Marshall Jr., the Gators do have one player having a sensational year in the secondary. The former 5-star recruit is the 2nd stingiest corner in the SEC in 1-on-1 coverage situations (Jahdae Barron, Texas), allowing only 40% of 1-on-1 targets to be completed. Marshall has surrendered just 42 yards receiving in 1 on 1 situations this season, and only 1 of those targets eclipsed 10 yards in the air, per Stats Solutions.

Malzahn likely will move Hudson around and try to find different ways to get him the ball, especially given the news this week that UCF’s other explosive receiver, Xavier Townsend, has opted to redshirt and transfer. Florida would be wise to counter this by making sure Marshall follows Hudson whenever possible in an attempt to corral the most dynamic threat UCF has in the downfield passing game.

Florida’s downfield passing game vs. UCF’s weak secondary

Much like there’s no hiding Florida’s leaky run defense, UCF is woeful against the pass.

The Knights rank 93rd in explosive passing plays of 20 yards or more allowed, and while 6 of the 16 came against future All-American Shadeur Sanders, UCF was also lit up by TCU’s Josh Hoover, who threw for 402 yards and 4 touchdowns in a 35-34 Knights win in Fort Worth.

The Knights were supposed to be better in the secondary after adding veteran safeties Sheldon Arnold from East Tennessee State and Bryon Threats from Cincinnati. It hasn’t worked out. The secondary reminds the weak link of a defense that has otherwise acquitted itself fairly well — the Knights rank 11th against the run and 9th in success rate rushing defense, both terrific ratings.

It won’t get easier for UCF on Saturday.

Graham Mertz has feasted on weak secondaries throughout his stint at Florida and just shredded Mississippi State’s secondary to the tune of 19-of-21 for 201 yards and 3 touchdowns in Starkville 2 weeks ago. Mertz is an intermediate assassin — having ranked 2nd in the SEC in intermediate passing success rate in 2023 and having gone 8-for-8 on such throws (10-20 yards) against Miss State.

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The better deep ball thrower is true freshman DJ Lagway, who will continue to see possessions against UCF after becoming the first SEC freshman quarterback since Jalen Hurts to lead 2 90-plus yard touchdown drives on the road.

Given the strength of the Knights against the run, Florida likely will try to use the short passing game to stay on schedule and take a healthy number of deep shots on 2nd down.  Odds are they’ll hit a few, but will it be enough in what will likely be a high scoring affair?

Prediction: UCF 38, Florida 35

In a game that might be a microcosm of the Napier era at Florida, the Gators will score plenty — but Florida’s run defense will surrender 350+ yards to the Knights as Jefferson wins in The Swamp for a second consecutive season.

Neil Blackmon

Neil Blackmon covers Florida football and the SEC for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.

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