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The Saturday Down South staff is back to give picks for the 10 biggest games of the week in college football. We’ll be picking against the spread all season long and keeping track of progress as we go.
The records through Week 12:
- Derek: 65–54–1
- Ethan: 59–60–1
- Paul: 59–60–1
- Spenser: 54–65–1
Let’s get to it.
(Editor’s note: All odds are via DraftKings. Point spreads used for this piece were taken earlier in the week and might not necessarily reflect current odds.)
No. 5 Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State (-12)
Spenser Davis: The Seth McLaughlin injury makes me a bit nervous, but I just don’t think Indiana is going to be able to hang with Ohio State talent-wise. The Hoosiers’ Big Ten slate this season consists of literally the 6 worst teams in the league (by conference record) plus Michigan, Washington, and Ohio State. Michigan and Washington have arguably played Indiana the toughest of anyone this season. I think the Buckeyes will prove to be an even bigger outlier on this IU schedule. PICK: Ohio State
Paul Harvey: I think the number is probably just about right, but I don’t believe IU is still getting enough credit this season. The Buckeyes will probably ride homefield advantage. But without seeing the reworked o-line, I’ll take this one being a touch closer than expected. PICK: Indiana
Derek Peterson: I believe Ohio State has some issues in the secondary that Kurtis Rourke can exploit. Indiana’s quarterback has been phenomenal against pressure this season and he has one of the quicker triggers in the country. IU’s offense has readymade counters for some of the things Jim Knowles will try to do. The question is whether Indiana can properly step up in class. I think they can at least remain competitive. PICK: Indiana
Ethan Stone: I think Indiana is a good football team, but I’m not sure this one is going to be close. Ohio State represents a massive jump in competency compared to what Indiana has dealt with in the weeks leading up to this game – not to mention this one will go down in Columbus. PICK: Ohio State
No. 9 Ole Miss (-11) at Florida
SD: I think Florida may be a bit overvalued after that win last weekend against a pretty disappointing LSU team. Ole Miss might have the best roster in the SEC and the Rebels can’t afford to look past this game (and don’t need to with lowly Mississippi State awaiting in the Egg Bowl next week). I’ll lay it with Ole Miss. PICK: Ole Miss
PH: I like the way Florida has played recently, and I can’t believe I’m saying that. But I think Ole Miss has weathered its biggest storms. The Playoff is there for the taking, just show up prepared for The Swamp. PICK: Ole Miss
DP: Awful spot for the Gators considering everything that has happened these last 2 weeks. Ole Miss got a few days to celebrate the Georgia win and still had extra time to lock in for Florida. The bye week also got everyone healthier, including Tre Harris. Florida, meanwhile, is coming off a game that saw the defense play over 90 snaps while the starting secondary was on the field for every single one of them. Ole Miss has the best defense the Gators will see this season and the offense is going to want to push the tempo. Ole Miss lays it on heavy. PICK: Ole Miss
ES: Love Florida to at least cover here. The Gators are much, much better than their record indicates, as all 5 of their losses came to teams currently within the top 15 in the CFP rankings – and they very nearly beat Tennessee. And as I’ve said probably a million times at this point – it’s tough to win on the road in the SEC. Rebels to edge out a win, Gators to cover. PICK: Florida
No. 13 SMU (-9.5) at Virginia
SD: SMU has been playing with fire a bit over the last month or so, particularly in narrow wins over Duke and Boston College. SMU’s defense has proven to be pretty vulnerable recently, so I like the over 57 in this game. But even in the midst of a rocky month, the Mustangs’ offense has been humming. Virginia’s defense stinks. I’ll lay the points with SMU. PICK: SMU
PH: Virginia is much-improved this season. But not that much improved. PICK: SMU
DP: Virginia has been that team all season that got circled in games against the big boys in the ACC. It lost by 4 to Louisville as a 7-point dog, then lost by 17 to Clemson as a 20.5-point dog, then it beat Pitt outright as a 7.5-point dog. I guess beating a wildly overrated Pitt team earns you a reputation as a threat. Though they covered against Louisville and Clemson, they still lost both games. The only thing that really stands out is the offensive line. The quarterback throws a ton of picks. The leading rusher is under 500 yards on the season. As a team, Virginia ranks 110th in net success rate, per Game on Paper. I just don’t see it against a rolling SMU team. PICK: SMU
ES: SMU loves squeaking out wins against mid-ACC teams they should clobber, but I like the Mustangs to win big this time around. Virginia has lost 4 of its last 5 and its win came against a hilariously overrated Pitt team that SMU torched by 20. PICK: SMU
No. 4 Penn State (-11) at Minnesota
SD: People are always quick to say James Franklin never wins the big game. And they’re right. But you know what else is true? He doesn’t lose games as a big favorite. He typically covers the spread in this spot, too. I think this one could be a blowout. PICK: Penn State
PH: This game would be a trap spot for Penn State if the Nittany Lions were an air-it-out squad. Andy Kotelnicki will throw some wrinkles into the passing game, but this is going to be a pound-it-out performance on the ground from Penn State. After chewing up the clock, Penn State will put it away late. PICK: Penn State
DP: The loss at Rutgers was a bit deflating. Minnesota quarterback Max Brosmer was shaky with the football and that’s the thing that absolutely can’t happen against Penn State. Minnesota doesn’t have a ground game that is consistent enough to stay in this if Brosmer starts putting the ball in harm’s way. PICK: Penn State
ES: This spread is just a little too much for me, especially with the Gophers on a bit of a roll lately and Penn State feeling the pressure not to drop a game exactly like this one. PICK: Minnesota
No. 14 BYU at No. 21 Arizona State (-3)
SD: It seems like Arizona State has come out of nowhere to be one of the Big 12’s best teams, but the Sun Devils are legit. They’re 35th nationally in schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play, according to Game on Paper. I think Arizona State has a matchup edge in this one and they’ve been fantastic at home. PICK: Arizona State
PH: I have been on Arizona State lately as an underdog. This one is different as the favorite, but I can’t get over how well the Sun Devils have played at home. That trend is significant. PICK: Arizona State
DP: Both of these teams have been ATS powerhouses this season, going a combined 15-5 against the number. But they’re trending in opposite directions. Arizona State has covered 3 straight and 5 of its last 6. BYU has failed to cover in 3 of its last 4 after a perfect 6-0 start to the year. I think that has created a bit of a “buy low” opportunity with the Cougars. Despite the 9-1 mark, a loss here could keep BYU out of the Big 12 title game entirely and put the CFP hopes in serious danger. If the attention had been waning in recent weeks, it should be back now. Kansas has arguably been the Big 12’s best over the last month, so I think this is a bit of an overreaction to that loss. PICK: BYU
ES: I think Kansas took the wind out of BYU’s sails, and Arizona State just took down Kansas State to increase its win streak to 3. Momentum is real, and I think it’s pretty lopsided in this one. PICK: Arizona State
No. 16 Colorado (-2.5) at Kansas
SD: The market has simply not caught up to Deion Sanders yet. Colorado is 15-5-1 ATS in FBS games with Sanders at the helm. That is absurd, even over a relatively small sample, especially considering how popular Colorado has been with the public at times during this run. Kansas has been hot, but not that hot. PICK: Colorado
PH: I’m not entirely sure what to do with Kansas. The Jayhawks have just one loss by more than 6 points this season and last week’s upset of BYU. Fortunately, this line is inside a field goal, and I like Colorado outright. PICK: Colorado
DP: This is a dangerous spot for Colorado. Kansas is 3-1 in its last 4 and has looked like one of the best in the Big 12 during that span — if not the best. But I think the Colorado passing game will be too much. I like the number we got here. PICK: Colorado
ES: Speaking of Kansas, the Jayhawks might be the weirdest team in college football at the moment. Similar to Florida, Kansas is way better than their record indicates – they just went 2-1 against the top of the conference with a 2-point loss to Kansas State. I think this line is perfect, but I’ll give the nod to Colorado because they have Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders while Kansas does not. PICK: Colorado
Stanford at Cal (-14)
SD: I don’t think much of Stanford, even with the win over Louisville last weekend. Cal has been the much better team so far in ACC play as it has been in tight games against teams like Miami, Pitt, NC State, and Syracuse. Stanford has been uncompetitive in its losses (with the exception of the Wake game) and I think this one could get ugly, too. PICK: Cal
PH: Stanford just took down Louisville, but file that one under the annual game Jeff Brohm is destined to lose against a team he has no business losing to. I’m not falling for the Cardinal, or the fact this is a rivalry game. Cal, BIG. PICK: Cal
DP: Cal has won 3 straight in this rivalry. But the 2021 win was the only game in the last 9 meetings between these 2 teams that has been decided by more than 14 points. Typically, you’d think these rivalry games would stay close. This year, Stanford has had a tough time keeping games close. PICK: Cal
ES: Ah yes, a good old-fashioned Atlantic Coast Conference showdown between Cal and Stanford. This one is really tough because the Cardinal are so hot and cold, but I think they’ll show up for a rivalry matchup such as this. PICK: Stanford
No. 19 Army vs. No. 6 Notre Dame (-14.5)
SD: I don’t like this matchup at all for Notre Dame. This is the best offense the Irish have faced in roughly 2 months. Their strength is defending the pass, which won’t be much of a factor in this one. I do worry somewhat about Army’s secondary, but if Riley Leonard beats this bet with downfield passes, then so be it. PICK: Army
PH: Don’t fall for comparing Notre Dame’s previous blowout against Navy for this matchup vs. Army. The Black Knights are second nationally in time of possession and are top-10 in turnover margin at plus-11. The Irish are second nationally in turnovers at plus-15, but I really like Army to keep this one inside of 2 touchdowns. PICK: Army
DP: So long as the same bout of fumblitis that struck Navy doesn’t make its way into the Army camp prior to kickoff, the Black Knights should be able to give Notre Dame a challenge. This figures to be a game with a seriously limited number of possessions. PICK: Army
ES: Army is legitimately a tough football team, and I think they’ll give the Fighting Irish a good test, unlike Navy. Not to mention, the stakes are actually insanely high in this game and the Black Knights want that G5 spot. PICK: Army
Vanderbilt at LSU (-7.5)
SD: It’s been almost 35 years since Vanderbilt beat LSU. And yet, I can’t help but wonder whether or not the Commodores are focused on the possibility of ruining Tennessee’s season the following week. A trip to Death Valley to play an LSU team that should be playing angry is not a recipe I like for the Dores. PICK: LSU
PH: Vandy has somehow morphed into an ATS juggernaut this season. LSU has become the exact opposite, and even with the pressure facing Brian Kelly, there’s not a lot left for the Tigers to play for this season. I don’t like the matchup, but I’m not going to let picking against the Commodores sink me again. PICK: Vanderbilt
DP: Has LSU figured out its run defense? No? OK. PICK: Vanderbilt
ES: Vanderbilt has been solid on the road this year if you’re willing to overlook that early-season loss at Georgia State. But last week’s loss to South Carolina was concerning looking forward to this week at Death Valley – by far the most chaotic environment they’ve visited thus far. I think we’ll be sweating this one out, but give me the Tigers. PICK: LSU
USC (-5) at UCLA
SD: USC’s offense was humming last week against Nebraska. As much flak as Lincoln Riley gets, I do think this team is better than its record. USC can’t really stop the run, but that’s not a weakness UCLA can exploit. I like the Trojans this week. PICK: USC
PH: Lincoln Riley as a road favorite? Hard pass. PICK: UCLA
DP: Like Spenser pointed out, the way to beat this USC defense is via the ground and UCLA just doesn’t have the horses to do that. It has to go to the air. USC’s penchant for underperforming on the road is certainly a thing, but this isn’t exactly a true road game. After what we saw from the USC offense a week ago, I’ll back the Trojans. PICK: USC
ES: UCLA played a really, really tough schedule to start the year and pretty much got clobbered in each game. Now, though, they’re playing well behind Ethan Garbers and I think they’ll at least keep it close. PICK: UCLA
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
