Georgia football: 3 reasons the Bulldogs are an overwhelming mismatch for Florida

If you go back all the way to the beginning of this season, Georgia fans might have looked ahead to the 2022 edition of the Cocktail Party and seen a potential challenge.

Florida was coming off a big win over No. 7 Utah in Week 1, quarterback Anthony Richardson was a popular early Heisman Trophy candidate and the Gators, not Tennessee, were the clear frontrunner to challenge Georgia’s division dominance.

My, how much things have changed in less than 2 months.

Now, the Bulldogs are scheduled to play No. 3 Tennessee in 2 weeks, and the Gators are a minor inconvenience standing in their way this Saturday.

Normally, this is where I would ask you to pump the brakes. I’d dig out some obscure numbers favoring Florida and explain why this was a trap game that Georgia can’t afford to overlook. I’d remind you of the Missouri game and the 1st half against Auburn, and I’d say Richardson’s unique ability could pose problems for a defense that struggles to put a ton of pressure on quarterbacks.

But I’m not going to do that today. Because I think this game is an extreme mismatch in the Bulldogs’ favor. And, barring a complete breakdown on both sides of the ball, I can’t imagine a scenario where Florida keeps it all that close.

Call me a jinx if you’d like, but the numbers are hard to ignore.

Here are a few that jump out at me and make me very confident the Bulldogs will win this game going away.

Florida’s defense — woof …

Look, the Gators weren’t an elite defense in 2021. “Aggressively mediocre” might be the proper description. But with that said, they were in the top half of the country in a number of key categories — total defense, passing defense, opponents’ 3rd-down percentage, etc.

This season? Like I said — woof.

In preparing for this column, I searched through as many relevant defensive categories as I could think of to find 1 or 2 areas in which Florida might challenge the Bulldogs. Maybe its run defense could force Georgia to win the game on the arm of quarterback Stetson Bennett IV. Maybe the Gators’ red-zone defense would compound Georgia’s struggles passing into the end zone.

Nope.

Florida is just statistically weak on defense across the board, and it has shown in its losses to LSU, Tennessee and Kentucky.

Florida’s passing defense allows 244.3 yards per game, 90th in the country. The Gators are one of the worst in the country in yards per attempt and allow quarterbacks to complete 65 percent of their passes.

The unit is among the better ones in touchdown passes allowed, but that only makes a difference if it’s keeping opponents out of the end zone on the ground. Florida isn’t doing that. The Gators have allowed 15 rushing touchdowns, tied for 105th in the country. They’re also allowing 185 yards on the ground.

You can dig deeper:

Florida is 49th in the country in red-zone defense, 84th in sacks, 75th in tackles for loss, 77th in plays of 20 or more yards and 2nd worst in 3rd-down defense.

There isn’t a category where you look at what Florida has done and say, “Yep, there’s an area it can expose Georgia’s offense.”

The Bulldogs have areas in which they don’t excel, to be sure. But when you couple all the above numbers with the fact that Georgia is among the nation’s most productive and efficient passing offenses, balances it with an effective ground attack and is among the best on 3rd downs and in the red zone … it’s not a great scenario for Florida.

Gators’ one-dimensional offense favors the Bulldogs’ D

I’m on record saying that Georgia’s statistical defensive prowess overshadows somewhat a handful of shortcomings on that side of the ball.

With that said, if the opposing offense isn’t a threat to beat Georgia through the air, the Bulldogs’ front 7 will tee off on the ground attack.

Georgia is very strong in the secondary this year. Malaki Starks, Christopher Smith, Kelee Ringo, Dan Jackson and more have all proven themselves more than capable game in and game out. That’s bad news for Florida, which has found no rhythm passing the ball.

Richardson is a talented and, at times, explosive signal-caller for the Gators, but he simply has not achieved at a high level. He completes barely 56 percent of his passes, and he has a negative touchdown-to-interception ratio (6 to 7).

We know the threat he poses with his legs. But against a defense like Georgia’s, that might be moot if he can’t keep the secondary honest.

Comparisons to last year might not be apples to apples considering the players the Georgia defense lost, but it gives you a decent look at how the Bulldogs want to defend Richardson. The quarterback completed only 12 passes for 82 yards in last year’s game, tossing 2 interceptions and 0 touchdowns, and Georgia was able to bottle him up on the ground to just 26 yards.

If Richardson can’t have early success in the passing game to back Georgia’s defense off a bit, it’s going to be a long day for the Florida offense.

How does the week off impact the game?

The last time these teams had more than a week to prepare for a game, both benefitted greatly.

Florida got its big win in the opener over Utah. Georgia looked utterly invincible in a 49-3 win over an Oregon team that has risen back to No. 8 in the rankings and scored more than 40 points in every game since.

Sometimes, an idle week in the middle of the season can disturb a team’s rhythm, but it felt to me like Georgia needed a chance to reset and get healthy. Florida, meanwhile, will have had 2 weeks to stew over its 45-35 loss to LSU.

Both teams benefit here, but I think this, too, favors the Bulldogs.

Bennett has had a dinged-up shoulder, defenders Jalen Carter and Smael Mondon Jr. have missed time, running back Kendall Milton is nursing a hamstring injury and receiver AD Mitchell hasn’t played a down since the opening drive of Georgia’s Week 2 win over Samford.

The feeling here is that with a healthier defensive front and the return of Mitchell, among others, Georgia will inch closer to the team we saw earlier in the season.

Anything can happen in a rivalry game, but this matchup heavily favors the defending national champions.

David Mitchell