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Georgia vs. Florida: 3 matchups that will define the Cocktail Party … and a prediction

Neil Blackmon

By Neil Blackmon

Published:

Georgia and Florida meet for the 102nd time Saturday in Jacksonville (3:30 PM, CBS).

Well, Georgia claims it’s the 103rd meeting, counting a 1904 game against Florida Agricultural College.

The Dawgs won that game, which came 2 years before the University of Florida started playing football, but the University of Georgia hasn’t let that pesky fact get in the way of claiming an extra win over their most bitter rival.

Now that we’ve sorted out that these programs and institutions agree on basically nothing, let’s break down the 102nd edition of the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, shall we?

For No. 2 Georgia, a win is all but required if the Dawgs hope to keep their SEC Championship dreams on track.

For the Gators, a win would go a long way in assuring Florida’s beleaguered Billy Napier returns for a 4th season as head coach in Gainesville.

While the rivalry has been relatively even this century, with Florida holding a 13-11 edge — the Dawgs have won 6 of the past 7, as Kirby Smart has imposed his will on this rivalry in much the way Steve Spurrier did in his dominant tenure at Florida. In fact, a win Saturday would be Georgia’s 4th consecutive Cocktail Party victory, the longest such streak for Georgia since winning 6 straight over the hated Gators from 1978-1983.

The Gators arrive in Jacksonville coming off their best performance in the Napier era, a 48-20 decimation of a Kentucky team that gave Georgia fits earlier this season. While “best game of the Napier era” isn’t a terribly high bar for Florida to clear, the Gators should at least be confident they are playing their beset football as they enter Saturday’s game against Smart’s more-talented Bulldogs.

How will it play out?

Here are 3 matchups that will define the Cocktail Party.

DJ Lagway vs. Georgia’s various blitz packages

I think this is the biggest matchup by some distance.

Lagway is a prolific deep ball passer, even as a true freshman. His average depth of target is 12.3, the highest in the SEC by nearly 2 yards (Garrett Nussmeier) among eligible quarterbacks, per PFF.

Georgia has a solid, albeit not spectacular, pass defense.

While Georgia ranks 38th in pass defense and 35th in pass success rate defense, that’s not a gargantuan drop-off from prior seasons. The main differences are schematic.

They play a little less man than in 2024 than last season, but the change has been effective in limiting teams over the top. Georgia has allowed only 15 explosive passing plays (20 yards or more) this season — on pace to finish around where last year’s team did (allowing 34 such plays), but much better than the 2022 national championship team that surrendered a Smart-era worst 46 explosives; those Dawgs were so dominant in other aspects it mattered little.

What Georgia does more than any Smart team since 2020 is blitz frequently.

They’ll likely play zone some on the back end to limit the deep ball and bring plenty of heat from a variety of angles to limit Lagway’s time to throw the football.

There are 2 Georgia blitzes that stand out on film and could trouble Lagway, the 5-star talent with the deadly accurate arm who is making just his 3rd career start Saturday. The first is this overload blitz where a disguised blitz from the outside linebacker occupies the left tackle to free a slot corner to get home. It was lethally effective against Texas, forcing 3 pressures on 3 blitzes.

The second blitz is really a series of blitzes at the A gap, where Smart brings 5 or 6 with a form of 5-man zone coverage on the back end that makes a quarterback quickly read a progression.

Georgia blitzed on 40% of snaps against Graham Mertz a season ago, playing more man in coverage to eliminate check downs and force Mertz to win battles over the top. A similar blitz percentage is likely against Lagway, but look for Smart to sit in zones behind the blitz packages to prevent the big deep throws Lagway is much more capable of making than Mertz.

Otherwise, Smart and Glenn Schumann can laser in on Florida’s preferred cross routes and attempt to jam Elijhah Badger close to the line to prevent Florida’s best playmaker (in the absence of the injured Tre Wilson) from getting the ball in space.

For Florida to win, Lagway must hit at least 4 or 5 explosives in the passing game. If Georgia limits Lagway to 3 or fewer, Georgia likely wins the game comfortably.

Florida’s improved front 7 vs. Georgia’s inconsistent ground game

Georgia has struggled to impose its will in the run game this season.

The Dawgs average just 2.32 yards before contact per run this season, per Stats Solutions. That’s the lowest figure for a Georgia team since 2016. Former Florida star Trevor Etienne’s success rate in Athens is 46.2% on the season, but that’s over 5% higher than the team average of 40.1%, another low for Georgia this decade.

Georgia has not rushed for 150 yards in a SEC game this season, and the Dawgs have been held to 105 yards or fewer in 3 SEC games (at Kentucky, at Texas, at Alabama).

The result has been a ton of pressure on Carson Beck to deliver for the Dawgs in a host of difficult down-and-distance situations that Georgia simply hasn’t dealt with much the past few seasons. Beck has been quite good — but he’s also been turnover prone, in part because he forces things without a consistent run game.

The Gators rank 94th in rushing defense this season, but that number is deceptive.

Florida’s run defense is greatly improved after surrendering an embarrassing 300-plus yards to Texas A&M in week 2. Florida stuffed UCF, one of the nation’s best ground attacks, limiting the Knights to 1 of the 5 lowest rushing outputs in Gus Malzahn’s tenures at Auburn and UCF. Florida followed that up with a strong performance against Kentucky, where Florida’s success rate defense against the run was 58.4%, with the primary Kentucky damages coming on Brock Vandagriff scrambles or designed runs for Wildcat quarterback Gavin Wimsatt.

Over Florida’s past 3 games, Florida ranks in the top 30 nationally in success rate against the run.

A huge reason for that is the play of South Carolina transfer Pup Howard. Howard has graded out as the SEC’s best linebacker against the run in 2024, per PFF. As his snaps have increased, Florida’s defense has improved markedly. Howard will find the ball Saturday. Will he be able to wrap up the slippery Etienne?

Florida must win this matchup to have a chance.

Arian Smith vs. Devin Moore and Cormani McClain

Smith has been far and away Georgia’s most productive receiver against quality opposition in 2024.

Frequently injured in his Georgia career, the senior with track star speed has been blessed with good health this autumn and has delivered.

Georgia lines up Smith wide about 75% of the time (158-of-206 snaps), hoping to isolate him on corners and let Beck attack the boundary. Florida has 1 corner, Jason Marshall Jr., who grades out among the top 10 corners in the country in coverage, per PFF. Unfortunately for the Gators, Marshall Jr. was lost for the season due to a shoulder injury suffered against Kentucky. It can’t be overstated what a massive loss this is for the Gators. He plays with marvelous balance and eye control, and rarely allows receivers to gain inside leverage. He also is also Florida’s 2nd-fastest corner.

The other, Devin Moore, grades out strongly against shorter routes but poorly (63.2) on deeper throws. Opposing coaches realize this, as evidenced by an average depth of target against of 19.8 yards, the highest among Florida’s defensive backs with 100 or more snaps played.

Without Marshall, the Gators will need an all hands on deck approach to prevent Smith from burning Florida over the top. Oregon transfer Trikweze Bridges has been outstanding this season, a big reason the Gators’ pass defense ranks in the top 40 nationally, nearly a 60 spot improvement from 2023. He can offer safety help.

Another option? Five-star transfer Cormani McClain. After a tumultuous year for Coach Prime at Colorado, McClain has bought in to the disciplined structure at Florida and is beginning to thrive under assistant coach Will Harris. McClain graded out as the best Gator defender against Kentucky, and he has elite speed and an eye for the football. He can run with Smith but lacks big-game experience.

https://twitter.com/gucceCU/status/1847837936479297547

Beck will be the best passer Florida’s played since a Week 1 loss to Cam Ward and Miami. Slow Beck’s favorite target, and Florida has a chance. If Smith gets loose, it will be a long Saturday for the Gators.

Prediction: Georgia 30, Florida 14

The Dawgs are the more talented team with the best coach in college football. Florida is starting to show signs of life under Napier, and Lagway is a game changer for the Gators at quarterback. But Georgia found its mojo again in Austin, and Kirby Smart is 6-2 vs. Florida and takes the Cocktail Party personally. He’ll confuse Lagway enough to slow Florida’s offense and Georgia will pull away in the second half for a comfortable win.

Neil Blackmon

Neil Blackmon covers Florida football and the SEC for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.

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