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Here’s the 1 prediction that I feel most confident about for this whole Nico Iamaleava situation at Tennessee
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Believe whoever you want with this Nico Iamaleava back-and-forth.
I won’t try to convince you that On3’s Pete Nakos reporting about Iamaleava being in “active contract negotiations” means that he’s in serious jeopardy of leaving the program in the post-spring window, nor will I try to convince you that I know every behind-the-scenes conversation that’s happened with the Tennessee quarterback since the end of the 2024 season, which included the Vols’ first Playoff berth.
Iamaleava’s dad, Nic, responded to Nakos’ report on Thursday night.
“More games being played off the field than on the field,” Nic Iamaleava wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter. “… Nakos from @On3sports called and asked me directly, I told him I had no idea on what he’s talking about. He said his “close source” that he trusts with his life from the University of Tennessee staff gave him this information. So y’all can ask them what’s going on, cuz it ain’t from us!”
And just in case that wasn’t enough, Pete Thamel and Chris Low reported that those negotiations are indeed happening and that the Tennessee quarterback missed practice on Friday.
Make of that what you will. What I make of it is more confirmation of something I’ve thought for the last few months.
If there’s 1 thing I’m most confident about with Iamaleava, it’s that he won’t be in a Tennessee uniform in 2026.
Yes, I said 2026, not 2025. That’s significant because while nothing should come as a surprise in this era of the transfer portal, I do wonder if this is all setting the stage for 2025 to be Iamaleava’s last season in Knoxville. Of the 3 possible post-2025 outcomes — NFL, portal or Tennessee — a 2026 return to Tennessee appears to be the least likely outcome.
The NFL Draft path seems unlikely for an obvious reason
Two things. If Iamaleava is indeed making upwards of $3 million per year, he’s going to need a pretty significant incentive to leave 2 years of college eligibility on the table, which is what he’ll have after the 2025 season. In other words, he’d have to be a 1st-round guy. Will Levis was the first player selected in the 2nd Round of the 2023 NFL Draft, and he had an average annual salary of just less than $2.4 million.
Do I think Iamaleava is going to become a 1st-round pick in 2026? I don’t. I say that while knowing that we could see him in the way-too-early 2026 NFL Mock Drafts, along with classmates Arch Manning and LaNorris Sellers. A 6-6, former 5-star recruit who flashed potential as a first-year starter could get that type of way-too-early love and nobody would be stunned.
But Iamaleava would have to take a significant jump after he attempted just 14.9% of his passes 20 yards downfield. That was 12th in the SEC. Mind you, that’s in an offense that specialized in taking deep shots, and it had a receiver room that had downfield weapons like Dont’e Thornton and Squirrel White. Iamaleava had an adjusted completion percentage of 38% on those downfield throws, which was also just 12th in the SEC. It’s also worth noting that 22 SEC quarterbacks had what PFF grades as a “big-time throw” under pressure, and Iamaleava wasn’t one of them. Under pressure, he averaged 4.9 yards/attempt and he had a 52% adjusted completion percentage, both of which ranked 19th among qualified SEC quarterbacks (min. 100 pass attempts).
Those numbers aren’t meant to say that Iamaleava should be benched. They do, however, show that he’s still got plenty of key things to figure out at the college level before he’s viewed as a true 1st-round prospect at the NFL level. And while I’ll always push back on the pre-draft love that someone like Anthony Richardson got, Iamaleava’s traits don’t suggest he’s set to dominate the pre-Draft process.
Well, the former volleyball player — in case you haven’t heard — is a lock to have the best vertical among quarterbacks whenever he leaves for the NFL. But outside of that, Iamaleava’s got a long way to go to show that he’s worthy of a Round 1 selection.
Iamaleava could improve and still not be in a Tennessee uniform in 2026
Why not? Couldn’t he make those strides, lead Tennessee to another Playoff berth and then announce his return with an “unfinished business” post on social media? Sure. It’s possible.
But at this stage, we at least have to acknowledge that 3 of the biggest insiders in the sport have publicly said that those contract negotiations are ongoing. If Iamaleava went back to the negotiating table after the year he just had — it’s also possible that Tennessee went back to the negotiating table in this unregulated world of NIL — doesn’t it seem extremely unlikely that both parties will bend over backward for one another if a successful season is in store?
If Iamaleava improves to the point where he’s leading the Vols to a national title, that NFL intrigue will be too significant for him to run it back. If he falls short of that while improving, do these current reported negotiations suggest that everyone will be on the same page? Tennessee might not be willing to spend more than $3-4 million on a quarterback that doesn’t have national championship upside. Iamaleava might not be willing to accept anything less, especially when the reported Carson Beck market was nearly $4 million. Of course, Beck regressed and still got that money after entering the portal. We’re providing the optimistic progression for Iamaleava here.
This is the new era of the sport. Tennessee acknowledged that by going to court to defend its expensive recruitment of Iamaleava. Even if the revenue-sharing era brings order in the form of a $20.5 million payroll for athletes like Iamaleava to be under some type of contractual obligation, there’ll still be outside NIL funding to drive up the market. How that’s regulated remains to be seen. Ergo, how this all plays out remains to be seen.
So what does this mean for Tennessee in 2025? And how does this play out?
I’m not breaking news by saying it’s not the ideal storyline to have your quarterback reportedly sitting out the final practice before a spring game. Duh. But if Tennessee and Iamaleava reach a deal before the spring window opens on April 16, this storyline can get moved to the back burner for the time being. You’ll see fans trying to clap back at reporters by saying this was “all way overblown” even though multiple reliable outlets reporting that a starting quarterback is surprisingly missing practice amid potential contract negotiations is extremely relevant, especially with the portal opening next week.
My best guess? Tennessee is motivated to get this taken care of. Tennessee doesn’t want to turn to redshirt freshman Jake Merklinger, who attempted 9 passes as a true freshman in 2024, nor do the Vols want to turn the up-tempo offense over to true freshman George MacIntyre. It would be expensive to poach another team’s starter, and even if there was a potential target that was a schematic fit with Josh Heupel’s offense, the post-spring quarterback transfers don’t exactly have the best track record for imminent success (even Joe Burrow had a significant learning curve in the first half of the 2018 season at LSU).
That could be at the root of this. Iamaleava might not have looked like Peyton Manning 2.0 in 2024, but his team is aware of Tennessee’s alternatives. Entering the final year of this reported 3-year contract, he could be seeking some long-term assurance that Tennessee isn’t willing to commit to. At least not after what it saw in 2024.
Tennessee fans should prepare for the most likely scenario — 2025 will be Iamaleava’s last year in a Tennessee uniform.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
