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How to bet Notre Dame-Indiana: Prediction, preview and odds — CFP first round (Dec. 20)
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The era of the 12-team College Football Playoff officially begins on Friday night when No. 7 Notre Dame (11-1) hosts No. 10 Indiana (11-1) in the first round.
Though technically an in-state battle between 2 squads from the Hoosier state, this will be their first meeting since 1991 and just the second since 1958. Notre Dame has dominated the series, winning 23 of the 29 meetings, but Indiana has shown this season it is a program reborn under Curt Cignetti.
Kickoff in the game is set for 8 pm ET on ABC.
Notre Dame vs. Indiana betting odds
Spread: Notre Dame -7.5
Total: 51.5 points
Moneyline: Notre Dame -275, Indiana +220
via FanDuel
Indiana stats, strengths, weaknesses
Behind Ohio transfer quarterback Kurtis Rourke, Indiana operates the 2nd-most prolific offense in college football. The Hoosiers have scored 43.3 points per game through 12 games, a 21.1-point improvement over their 2023 output. Indiana averages 6.7 yards per play, which ranks 12th nationally.
Rourke has one of the nation’s best efficiency ratings, with an 85.7 Total QBR that ranks 3rd in the FBS. Indiana runs to throw, and its passing game ranks No. 1 nationally in success rate, per Game on Paper.
Ty Son Lawton and Justice Ellison split the backfield carries. Lawton has more touchdowns (12, compared to Ellison’s 10), but Ellison has been the more efficient back on a down-to-down basis (5.5 yards, compared to 4.8). James Madison transfer Elijah Sarratt has been Rourke’s favorite target this season, with 49 receptions for 890 yards and 8 scores.
On defense, Indiana more than holds its own at the line of scrimmage. That is thanks in no small part to the play of edge defender Mikail Kamara. One of several James Madison transfers, Kamara is a 6-1, 265-pound end who ranks 2nd in the Big Ten in sacks (10) and tackles for loss (15). His 60 total quarterback pressures are the 3rd-most of any FBS player.
Indiana has the No. 2 run defense in the FBS, allowing just 2.5 yards per carry this season. And the Hoosiers get standout play from cornerback D’Angelo Ponds in the secondary. Ponds has 7 pass breakups and 2 interceptions this season with an 84.9 coverage grade from PFF. He is the 2nd-highest-graded corner in the Big Ten (minimum 200 snaps).
The issue is competition. Indiana’s strength of schedule ranks 68th, according to FEI. That is the lowest of any team in the field.
Indiana’s defense has been outstanding, yes, but it has faced only 2 offenses all season that ranked in the top 25 by success rate. Those teams were Washington and Ohio State, which scored a combined 55 points and ran up a combined 634 yards of offense. The average ranking of the other 9 FBS offenses Indiana faced: 89th.
And the same premise applies to the other side of the football. Indiana’s offense has faced only 2 FBS defenses all season that were inside the top 50 nationally for success rate. Those were Michigan and Ohio State. Indiana averaged 3.5 yards per play in those 2 games, more than 3 yards under its season average. Michigan and Ohio State also accounted for 9 of the 17 sacks Rourke has taken all season.
Notre Dame stats, strengths, weaknesses
The Fighting Irish have scored the 3rd-most points in FBS this season — 39.8, just behind Indiana — thanks to a dynamic run game. The Irish have a 57% run rate this season and they lean on 3 primary ball carriers: quarterback Riley Leonard, second-year tailback Jeremiyah Love, and third-year tailback Jadarian Price.
Love leads the team in rushing, with 949 yards and 15 touchdowns on 134 carries. His 7.1 yards per attempt are the 6th-most among FBS running backs with at least 100 carries. Leonard has provided 721 rushing yards and 14 scores on 124 attempts. Price has 651 yards and 7 scores on 89 carries.
Despite rebuilding the offensive line in the offseason and leaning on inexperience, the Irish front gelled into a Joe Moore Award semifinalist group. Notre Dame ranks in the 82nd percentile for line yards produced (an advanced metric that gives o-lines credit for a portion of rushing yardage) and in the 88th percentile for stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage). As such, the Irish have one of the most explosive ground games in all of college football, ranking ninth nationally in EPA per carry.
The defense, led by safety Xavier Watts, corners Leonard Moore and Christian Gray, and linebacker Jack Kiser, is a proverbial no-fly zone. Notre Dame ranks No. 2 nationally in defensive efficiency against the pass, allowing only 5.6 yards per attempt. The Irish are among the best in the country at limiting explosive plays, with Watts patrolling the back end and cleaning things up. Notre Dame has allowed the lowest passer rating of any team in the country and only 3 defenses have more interceptions (17).
Notre Dame will run into trouble if it cannot get its ground game rolling against Indiana. Should the Hoosiers stand up to Notre Dame’s offense and force Leonard to make plays with his arm, the Fighting Irish have few options.
Their leading receiver, Beaux Collins, has 34 catches for 427 yards. No one has more than 3 touchdown catches. Tight end Mitchell Evans is coming off his best game of the season, but even that was a 5-catch, 59-yard performance. Notre Dame has produced only 28 pass plays all season that gained at least 20 yards (113th nationally) and Leonard has completed only 14 passes that traveled at least 20 yards downfield. Per Game on Paper, the Irish are in the 7th percentile nationally for explosive pass rate. This offense is not designed to slice through a defense via the pass.
How to bet the spread in Notre Dame-Indiana
The point spread opened around 9 points and has slowly dipped down. At the time of publication, Notre Dame -6.5 could be had at DraftKings, with -110 odds.
The best price on Indiana comes from BetMGM, where the Hoosiers +7.5 has -105 odds.
Notre Dame is 10-2 against the spread this season, with 8 straight ATS victories.
Indiana is 9-3 against the spread, but 2 of those ATS defeats have come since Nov. 9.
Favorites in the College Football Playoff era (since 2014) are 16-4 ATS.
How to bet the total in Notre Dame-Indiana
The point total for this game has hovered right around where it opened. Over bettors can get 51.5 points at ESPN Bet while those seeking to play the under can get 52.5 at BetMGM.
The over is 7-5 this season in Notre Dame games, however this will be just the fifth Notre Dame game all year with a point total above 50. Those previous 4 games saw the over hit twice.
Indiana has gone over the projected point total in 9 of its 12 games thus far. The Hoosiers have only played 4 games where the point total closed under 50. Three of those 4 games produced more than 50 points.
Prop picks in Notre Dame-Indiana
Indiana running back Ty Son Lawton has touchdowns in all but 3 games this season. He scored twice against Ohio State and has 4 in his last 4 games. Justice Ellison, meanwhile, has found the endzone on the ground only once in his last 4 games. Lawton was the more effective back against Ohio State and Michigan, and Indiana will want to try and run against a Notre Dame defense that is more forgiving on the ground than it is through the air. FanDuel is offering +105 odds on an anytime touchdown from Lawton.
That being said, Indiana has averaged just 0.511 points per play in 3 games this season against top-15 defenses by SP+. Notre Dame’s defense ranks fifth. With both of these teams looking to keep the other’s offense off the field, possessions will be at a premium already. DraftKings is offering -140 odds on Indiana’s team total going under 23.5 points in this game.
Prediction for Notre Dame-Indiana
I’m taking Notre Dame -6.5 at ESPN Bet. Teams have been able to run on Notre Dame, but Indiana’s offense isn’t built to line up and run through a defense with the kind of next-level talent Notre Dame boasts. The Irish have the personnel to wear this IU team down. And we’ve seen now that Indiana isn’t the same when stepping up in class.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
