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How to bet Ohio State-Tennessee: Odds, preview, picks — CFP first round (Dec. 21)
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The beauty of a 12-team College Football Playoff will be on full display Saturday night in Columbus, Ohio. A team from the SEC will travel north for a frigid December game on a college campus. Ohio State and Tennessee — ninth and 10th all-time in program wins, respectively — will play each other for just the second time ever. A spot in the CFP quarterfinals is on the line. Redemption is there for Ohio State. Respect is there for Tennessee.
Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ABC.
Ohio State vs. Tennessee betting odds
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Spread: Ohio State -7.5
Total: 46.5 points
Moneyline: Ohio State -275, Tennessee +220
via FanDuel
Tennessee stats, strengths, weaknesses
The Vols rank fourth nationally in scoring defense. Only 2 teams (Georgia and Vanderbilt) have scored 20 points on them all season. And the Vanderbilt game featured an opening kickoff return for a touchdown; without that, the Commodores would have been under 20 as well.
A midseason injury to standout linebacker Keenan Pili didn’t cripple this unit, as players have stepped up across the board to make up for their leader’s absence. Sophomore Arion Carter leads the team in tackles with 65, but this has been a collective effort. Nine Volunteer defenders have more than 30 tackles, and 15 are averaging at least 2 tackles a game. James Pearce Jr. (11 TFLs), Joshua Josephs (9), and Bryson Easen (7) have generated plays in the backfield and Pearce ranks among the SEC’s leaders in sacks, with 7.5 on the year.
The defense is in the 90th percentile or better in EPA per play, havoc rate, late-down success rate, EPA per run, stuff rate, line yards allowed, and opportunity rate allowed (per Game on Paper). If there’s a weakness, it’s the secondary, but degree matters here. Teams do not run on Tennessee. They are forced to move the ball methodically via the pass. Tennessee doesn’t give up many chunk plays through the air, but it does rank 46th nationally in passing success rate allowed. The safeties are aggressive and the Vols get after teams.
On offense, Dylan Sampson powers one of the most run-heavy teams in the FBS. Tennessee uses spread formations that split the receivers wider than normal, Tennessee utilizes tempo, and then it pounds teams to a pulp with Sampson. He has 1,485 rushing yards and a school-record 22 touchdown runs this season.
In his first full season as the starter, quarterback Nico Iamaleava has thrown for 2,512 yards and 19 touchdowns with 5 interceptions. He completed 65.7% of his passes and averaged 8.3 yards per play during the regular season.
Ohio State stats, strengths, weaknesses
The Buckeyes’ skill positions are comically stacked. At receiver, Ohio State boasts Emeka Egbuka, Jeremiah Smith, and Carnell Tate — 3 players who will all be playing on Sundays. Smith leads the team with 934 yards and 10 touchdowns as a true freshman. Egbuka has 743 yards and 9 scores. Tate has 583 yards. All 3 players have at least 41 receptions. Ohio State is the only team in the Big Ten that has 3 receivers with at least 40 receptions and at least 500 yards.
Ohio State also has a pair of tailbacks who have both cleared 750 rushing yards on the season. TreVeyon Henderson has been the more efficient back (7.0 yards per carry), but Quinshon Judkins has been the more featured back, with 39 more attempts and 2 more rushing touchdowns. Judkins has 805 yards on 147 attempts this season. Henderson has 751 on 108 carries.
Quarterback Will Howard ranks seventh in Total QBR among qualified FBS quarterbacks, but he sits outside the top 25 in EPA. He is a game manager who has not been asked to do much to win games this season. He has 30 pass attempts in a game only 3 times all year. Two of those ended in Ohio State defeats. And though Howard can run, Ohio State hasn’t used him as a threat on the ground at any point this year.
Like with Tennessee, Ohio State’s strength rests more with its defense. The Buckeyes defense ranks third nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA per play. Unlike with Tennessee, the statistical strength is the pass defense. Ohio State ranks third nationally in EPA per dropback and fourth nationally in passing success rate allowed. The Buckeyes have allowed only 4 passing touchdowns all season, tied with Texas for the fewest in the FBS.
Herein lies the potential weakness for Tennessee to exploit. Safety Caleb Downs has been a Superman of sorts in the back of the Ohio State defense. The Buckeyes’ adjustment to the Oregon game was to bring a touch more pressure to affect opposing quarterbacks, and that has led to even more man-on-man coverage on the outside. The Ducks abused Ohio State’s corners in their win. Denzel Burke has been picked on this year, giving up 30 receptions on 37 targets. Davison Igbinosun has been flagged constantly. Burke’s coverage grade this season ranks 213th nationally among qualified corners. Igbinosun has been called for pass interference 11 times in 12 games. Ohio State leaves its corners on islands, and that’s an area where Tennessee will look to take advantage.
How to bet the spread in Ohio State-Tennessee
ESPN Bet has the best price for Ohio State bettors. The Buckeyes -7 carries -115 odds at the book. Tennessee bettors can get -112 odds on Tennessee +7.5 at DraftKings.
Tennessee is 7-5 against the spread this season. It is 1-1 ATS as an underdog. The victory was a 24-17 straight-up win over Alabama on Oct. 19. Under Josh Heupel, Tennessee is just 4-9 ATS as an underdog.
Ohio State is 6-6 ATS on the year. Only 2 games have featured a spread under 10 points — at Oregon and at Penn State. Ohio State is 1-1 in those 2 games.
How to bet the total in Ohio State-Tennessee
This game has the lowest point total of any of the first-round Playoff games. Unders have hit in 7 of Ohio State’s 12 games and in 5 of Tennessee’s 12 games.
With 2 teams that control the line of scrimmage and want to run the football, points should be at a premium. The weather is also worth considering. The National Weather Service expects lows around 17 degrees with a north wind between 5 and 7 miles per hour.
Prop picks in Ohio State-Tennessee
Nico Iamaleava cleared 190 passing yards in 3 of his first 4 games. The lone exception was a 71-0 drubbing of Kent State that saw the first-team offense get an early curtain call. Since, Iamaleava has more than 190 yards only 4 times in 8 games. Tennessee has opted to protect its quarterback while leaning on the ground game and the defense. But to beat the Buckeyes, Tennessee is going to have to test those corners. Expect Josh Heupel to have plenty of man-beaters installed in the gameplan for guys like Dont’e Thornton and Bru McCoy. FanDuel is offering -114 odds on Thornton to clear 34.5 receiving yards.
On the other side, Ohio State has its own receiver to feed. The Buckeyes need to keep the UT defense honest, but they also just need to get their superstar receiver more involved. Smith had 9 catches for 100 yards and a score against Oregon. Since, he has more than 5 receptions in a game only once. The Buckeyes will be looking to him often. He has -128 odds at FanDuel to clear 4.5 receptions.
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Prediction for Ohio State-Tennessee
The Tennessee defensive front wins more often than not and the second level crashes hard to the ball to clean up everything else. This will be the best defense Ohio State has seen all year, and if it can’t run the football — which it has struggled to do at times against bigger, more athletic fronts — I don’t trust the Buckeyes. The psychological element of this game is also very real. Ohio State has been shrouded in negativity since losing to Michigan and there’s no telling how this group responds to what was a demoralizing defeat at home. If the crowd turns on Ryan Day, things could get very tight on the field. I’m taking the Vols +7.5 (-112 via DraftKings) and putting a smaller wager on the Tennessee moneyline (+230 via ESPN Bet).
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
