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I’m extremely skeptical about Jaxson Dart being a franchise QB, but with Brian Daboll, that’s now on the table
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After Jaxson Dart tore up the Senior Bowl, I asked the question that was far from my mind during his 3 years at Ole Miss.
Is he about to become Lane Kiffin‘s first 1st-round quarterback?
Three months later, we got our answer — a resounding “yes.” Not only did Dart make some history, but he also emerged as QB2 in the 2025 NFL Draft class. The New York Giants traded up to pick No. 25 to get their guy. Brian Daboll finally got to hand-pick his quarterback, and he hand-picked the guy that I argued was a notch below Matt Corral throughout his college career.
But hey, that’s irrelevant now. More relevant for Dart and his new destination is how quickly he adjusts to his new surroundings. By the way, those new surroundings include Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston. Oh, to be a fly on that wall.
With Dart’s selection to the Giants, it’s fair to still ask a certain question.
Is he about to become a franchise quarterback?
I don’t know the answer to that, but I do feel more optimistic about that possibility with Daboll being the guy to pick him.
As much as the college-focused side of my brain defaults to the Jalen Hurts 2017 struggles at Alabama, one must acknowledge 2 other things. Josh Allen rose to prominence with Daboll at the controls, and so did the guy that Dart might end up replacing, Daniel Jones.
Wait, did I just say that Jones “rose to prominence?” Let’s back up. Let’s instead say that Jones “stunningly rose above mediocrity” with Daboll at the controls.
That’s right. Jones was the best version of himself in 2022 with Daboll. That’s noteworthy for someone like Dart, who’ll also have to overcome some significant hurdles as a fellow first-round pick.
Yes, this is the part where we discuss Kiffin’s system and why it’s been deemed more “college-focused” than “pro-focused.” It’s not just the tempo or the lack of snaps under center.
Dart was No. 4 in FBS with 53.2% of his drop-back snaps having some form of play-action (via PFF). The highest percentage of play-action drop-back snaps by a first-round quarterback in a pre-draft season in the 2020s decade was Mac Jones at 46.7% (min. 100 drop-backs). Tua Tagovailoa was the only other first-round quarterback in the 2020s with at least 40%.
(In case you were wondering, Corral led FBS with a 60.4% drop-back percentage using play-action during his pre-draft season under Kiffin in 2021.)
That’s significant because the NFL starter with the highest such play-action drop-back percentage was Jared Goff at 35.7%. Only 3 full-time starters were above 30%. As much as it feels like NFL teams are adapting college concepts, that’s still a significant difference.
Also significant is the fact that Daboll and that front office will enter as obvious hot-seat candidates. This isn’t a 2-3 year window for Dart to develop. If we exclude someone like JJ McCarthy, who suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason, every first-round quarterback selected in the 2020s started multiple games as a rookie, with the lone exception being Jordan Love … who had a certain “Aaron Rodgers” starting ahead of him.
That suggests Dart isn’t getting a redshirt year. At some point, Wilson or Winston will give way to the kid.
Maybe Dart is more ready for that than what those potential hurdles would suggest. Only he knows that.
Shoot, who are we kidding? Dart is more likely to be debating if he has enough space on his mantle for an MVP trophy than if he can succeed in the NFL. Confidence, he does not lack. This is the same guy who refused to slide and tried to run through entire defenses. Whether that same strategy works in the NFL remains to be seen. Even Joe Burrow learned the hard way that he had to be better about protecting himself in the NFL.
Add that to the to-do list for Dart. It’s long. That’s OK.
Ultimately, Dart earned that opportunity because scheme questions or not, he was a tough, mobile quarterback who showed off his cannon of an arm during his 3 seasons at Ole Miss. His ability to locate downfield showcased his upside. That also outweighed the late-game collapses that Dart was a part of that led to Kiffin’s squad missing the Playoff.
When Ole Miss’s season ended in the Gator Bowl instead of in a Playoff, Dart got every blade of grass that he wanted against Duke. Afterward, Kiffin teased the idea that Dart could find a way to squeeze out another year of eligibility. At the time, I wonder if Kiffin even thought that he was saying that about a future first-round pick. Four months later, Kiffin got his answer.
Now it’s up to Dart to answer all those other questions.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
