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In Year 3 at LSU, it has to be Playoff-or-bust for Brian Kelly

Neil Blackmon

By Neil Blackmon

Published:


The shiny glow of LSU’s second Heisman Trophy winner in 5 seasons beckons like a bayou crawfish boil, inviting all who doubt LSU football to enter.

Sure, Jayden Daniels is the new starting quarterback for the Washington Commanders now, but Daniels 2023 ride to college football immortality is also a poignant reminder of what is always possible in Baton Rouge.

“Even in a year when our defense couldn’t stop air, LSU football is capable of giant things,” a fan barked at last season’s Heisman ceremony, and it’s hard to argue.

Then again, while a Heisman winning season is fun, didn’t Brian Kelly leave storied Notre Dame in the dust because he wanted a chance to consistently win championships? Before you get all “well, it’s more complicated than that” on me, let’s remember what Kelly said when he took the job.

“I came down here because I wanted to be with the best,” Kelly said in a newfound and since departed faux Cajun drawl at his introductory news conference. “The resources here are outstanding. It starts with the alignment, excellence, the standard of expectation. You’re looked at in terms of championships here. I want that. I want to be under the bright lights. I want to be on the Broadway stage.”

To date, Kelly has put on an entertaining show under the bright lights, but he hasn’t delivered on the championships by which he wants to be judged.

At most places, a 20-7 record through 2 seasons, with an 8-2 record against LSU’s 5 traditional rivals (Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Arkansas and Texas A&M), would be a cause for celebration. Coaching a Heisman winner would be icing on the cake. At LSU, the focus on what hasn’t occurred — an SEC Championship or a College Football Playoff appearance. The Tigers don’t even have a top-10 finish under Kelly in 2 seasons, despite Daniels’ Heisman heroics a season ago. LSU did finish 12th a season ago, thanks to a ReliaQuest Bowl win over Wisconsin, but even that felt somewhat hollow after any chance at a repeat SEC Championship game appearance collapsed in a 42-28 loss at Alabama in early November.

Let’s be clear, of course. Kelly, he of the $95 million guaranteed contract through 2031, isn’t going anywhere.

But with the expansion of the College Football Playoff to 12 teams in 2024, any fan or writer promoting the notion that Kelly gets a free year to rebuild after the departure of the program’s second-in-a-generation transcendental talent at quarterback is selling gibberish.

RELATED: Predicting every LSU game in 2024

Yes, Kelly is still building something, as he noted after the comeback win over Wisconsin in January.

“We still need to build the kind of defense we need to win a championship,” Kelly said. “We are moving in that direction.”

Moving in that direction is fine, but Kelly wasn’t hired to win 10 games every season, despite the joyful stability that such success can bring.

Kelly was hired to do what predecessors Nick Saban, Les Miles and Ed Orgeron all did before him: win the national title.

Kelly clearly sensed the urgency that accompanies that expectation this offseason. That’s why he fired Matt House and 3 defensive assistants after LSU finished an abysmal 81st in scoring defense, 84th in rushing defense, 102nd in success rate defense, and 118th in pass defense a season ago.

Did talented offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock accepting the offensive coordinator position at Notre Dame complicate things?

Yes, but at least the offensive “system” remains largely under Kelly’s braintrust. The bigger issue will be how freshly minted starter Garrett Nussmeier parlays his longtime experience in the SEC into production without star receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas (NFL) and star running back Logan Diggs (transfer to Ole Miss).

But change also means the buildout hit a hiccup. Now there are new systems to learn on both sides of the ball. New terminologies, new play-callers, new chemistry.

Are there questions, then? Sure.

Is it a rebuild?

Not even a little bit.

Coaches and scouts rave — rightly — about Nussmeier, who has impressed in multiple games at LSU in the past, including the 2022 SEC Championship Game against Georgia and in last season’s ReliaQuest Bowl win, where he threw for 395 yards and 3 touchdowns in rallying the Tigers from a 2-touchdown deficit to win.

“I’ve been thrown into some tough situations, but it’s only made me better, and I wouldn’t trade it for the world,” Nussmeier said at SEC Media Days. “I’ve waited for this opportunity, and I am ready to thrive in it.”

Nussmeier should be buoyed by an improved defense, which returns All-American linebacker Harold Perkins and should be vastly improved on the backend, even if not back to the DBU standards of old.

The Tigers have 4 capable corners, a welcome change from the past 3 seasons, when depth was razor thin. Ashton Stamps and PJ Woodland have turned heads throughout camp, and in Jordan Allen and transfer Jardin Gilbert, LSU should be the best it has been at safety in several years. Major Burns, the ferocious hitter who has moved to “STAR,” appears primed to cash in on the talent that made him such a coveted recruit when he left Baton Rouge for Georgia out of high school.

There’s also just the sense that LSU will figure it out in the secondary. Sure, there will always be the occasional down year, but DBU is a birthright and the bad years are an aberration, like heat lightning. At least that’s how it used to be.

Then again, winning is a habit, and so is losing. What once are vices can become old, bad habits.

Should a third consecutive Brian Kelly defense finish outside the top 40 nationally, the question might need to be asked about whether this is a problem that the Tigers can fix, or if it has become systemic. After all, an LSU defense hasn’t finished in the top 25 nationally since 2018, and the last to finish in the top 10 in success rate defense came in 2017.

If LSU can figure it out on that end, Kelly has everything else he needs to start living up to the championship expectations he’s set for himself and the fan base undoubtedly sets for him.

Recruiting is rolling, NIL is burgeoning, and the LSU brand, bolstered by college to pro stars like Daniels, Ja’Marr Chase, Angel Reese and Paul Skenes and social media sensations like Livvy Dunne, is stronger than ever.

The pieces are in place. Kelly hasn’t won big yet, but I’ve always chucked at folks who questioned Kelly’s “fit” at LSU.

The awkward accent incident is a perfect example of why Kelly is a good fit.

This is a school that won national titles with Orgeron’s garbled drawl a charming, albeit virtually incomprehensible becoming a part of the program’s DNA.

This is a school where another national title winning head coach ate grass. Kelly faked an accent? Sure, that’s a little wack-a-doodle, but in a good way. Before people start leaching bile in the comments section, understand I am celebrating LSU’s eccentricities. They are good for football. It is good for football when LSU is excellent, and at a program where the landscape seems to gray every time the Tigers fail and winning or losing is a spiritual experience, there’s no shame or sadness in high expectations.

It’s just time for Brian Kelly and LSU to start living up to them.

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Neil Blackmon

Neil Blackmon covers Florida football and the SEC for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.

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