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After all that has been written and spoken concerning the wealth of talent at the quarterback position in the SEC, this weekend we take our first step toward seeing what is real and what is hype.
So, which quarterbacks in the SEC will throw for 300 yards in Week 1? Our predictions:
Drew Lock, Missouri
Opponent: Missouri State
Lock had five 300-yard passing games last season, and against non-conference opponents he averaged 353.3 passing yards per game.
Lock will be facing an FCS opponent in Missouri State that ranked 104th out of 122 FCS teams in passing defense (260.1 YPG).
Lock showed last season that when facing an inferior opponent, he can put up the numbers. And he was dominating in the month of September, averaging 377.0 passing yards in four games.
Expect that trend to continue.
Jake Bentley, South Carolina
Opponent: N.C. State
There are many reasons not to expect a 300-yard game from Bentley on Saturday. Bentley has only played in seven games, and his only 300-yard game came in the Birmingham Bowl loss to USF.
The Gamecocks are facing a quality opponent in N.C. State at a neutral site (Charlotte). The Wolfpack are expected to have one of the best defensive lines in the nation, and will be out to put pressure on Bentley all game long.
So why will Bentley have a 300-yard game? For one, the Gamecocks’ offense appears to be loaded, with 10 starters back, and they are ready to show it off on national TV. And while the Wolfpack are solid up front on defense, their secondary is a concern.
N.C. State ranked just 82nd in the FBS in pass defense last season and saw two defensive backs get drafted this past spring. And their top cornerback entering this season, senior Mike Stevens, will not play in the game due to a lower-leg injury.
If the Gamecocks’ offensive line can keep the pressure off Bentley, the sophomore has shown he can pick defenses apart. And if South Carolina falls behind in this game, it may need Bentley to throw it even more.
Jarrett Stidham, Auburn
Opponent: Georgia Southern
With running backs Kamryn Pettway and Kerryon Johnson back, you can bet the Tigers will be looking to establish the ground game early and often. Last year, against non-Power 5 opponents, the Tigers rushed for at least 400 yards in each game.
But you can also bet that Auburn will be looking to show off its new quarterback and remind fans that back in 2015, as a freshman with Baylor, Stidham averaged 313 passing yards in three starts.
Because the Tigers are facing a Georgia Southern team that returns just five starters on defense, the possibility of a lot of yards by the Auburn offense is very high. Expect the Tigers’ ground game to be strong, but also expect Stidham to establish his dominance in his first game action since the end of the 2015 season.
Shea Patterson, Ole Miss
Opponent: South Alabama
For this matchup, the magic number is 40.
For example, in his three starts last season, Patterson averaged 44 pass attempts a game and topped 300 yards passing in two of those three games.
South Alabama had a good defense last season, particularly against the pass (ninth in the FBS in pass defense, 174.6 YPG). But dating back to the 2014 season, the last five teams to have 40 or more pass attempts against the Jaguars all wound up with over 300 yards passing.
Last season, Ole Miss had 40 or more pass attempts in a game six times. In five of those games, the Rebels starting quarterback wound up with a 300-yard passing game (Chad Kelly three times, Patterson twice).
If the Rebels let Patterson air it out, he should have another 300-yard passing game.
Michael covers SEC football for Saturday Down South.
