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Josh Pate outlines ‘worst-case scenario’ for Tennessee in 2025 without Nico Iamaleava
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Arguably no team has had a more tumultuous offseason than Tennessee this year, making it difficult to project what the Vols may accomplish this fall as they look to follow up on a CFP season in 2024.
With Nico Iamaleava at UCLA now, college football analyst Josh Pate discussed what the Vols’ worst-case scenario may be for the 2025 campaign on his most recent show. Pate cited a conversation with a friend, a Tennessee fan, who claimed the Vols’ floor this year is an 8-4 season.
Nonsense, says Pate, who argued that Tennessee being a consistent College Football Playoff threat is a relatively-new phenomenon.
“My buddy hits me and he says, ‘what if the worst were to happen this year? What if they go 8-4?'” Pate said. “And I said ‘excuse me?’ The worst? Being 8-4? They may have gone 8-4 with Nico. The worst? You don’t know much about Tennessee football if you think the worst is 8-4. This is a very, very new concept in the modern age, Tennessee having the audacity to fancy itself a perennial Playoff contender.
“You can criticize Josh Heupel or credit Josh Heupel, you need to understand, he pulled you out of the wilderness … Tennessee football was an afterthought for a decade and a half.”
The numbers back up what Pate is arguing. From 2008 through 2021, the Vols averaged just over 6 wins per year. They didn’t earn double-digit victories in any of those seasons and reached 9 wins just twice.
But more importantly for Pate’s argument — Tennessee is tasked with replacing a ton of production of last year’s team. And that’s before accounting for the potential difference in quarterback play between Iamaleava and Joey Aguilar.
“8-4 is not the worst-case scenario,” Pate said. “I think their win total is 8.5 right now. So, no, the worst-case is like a Florida State implosion. OK, probably not that bad. But the worst-case is you miss a bowl game. That’s the worst-case. Because with Nico or without Nico, you still had over 160 starts to replace on your offensive line. With or without Nico, you had questions at wide receiver. Questions at running back. You’re re-tooling your defense.
“The ice is so much thinner in this sport than you ever think it is. You don’t get to carry over success. Because you made the Playoff last year, it doesn’t raise the floor to where, ‘alright, on the low end, we’re an 8-win team.’ No, on the low end, you’re still a 4-win team. You’re not immune to disaster just because you made the Playoff last year. I believe in Josh Heupel, but I believe Josh Heupel had a tall order on his hands even if Nico stayed this year.”
Here’s a clip from Pate’s show:
Indeed, Tennessee’s win total at BetMGM currently sits at 8.5. If you’re interested in betting that line, here’s a full breakdown of all the best Tennessee betting apps you can join this offseason.
Heupel has led Tennessee to an average of 10 wins in each of the past 3 seasons at the helm.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
