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College GameDay came to us today from Indianapolis at the Big Ten Championship game, which seems to be an unofficial College Football Playoff quarterfinal.
ESPN analyst Rece Davis pointed out that the underdog has won the last three Big Ten conference championship games, so No. 5 Michigan State is officially on upset alert.
And the Big Ten crowd was a rowdy one. As Davis began the SEC Championship discussion, the Big Ten crowd began chanting, “Overrated.”
Alabama is the biggest favorite today at almost 18 points, and the GameDay crew looked back at No. 2 West Virginia in 2007 being a 27-point favorite over Pittsburgh, and then falling 13-9 to the Panthers. “Not Nick Saban,” Kirk Herbstreit said.
Even former Gators QB Tim Tebow thinks Florida won’t be able to stop the “freak” Tide RB Derrick Henry once the game gets into the second half, and running horizontally against Alabama, like Auburn did last week, will give Florida it’s only chance on offense.
Davis asked the team to consider whether they were overlooking the SEC Championship. He asked, “Does Florida have a chance?”
“Florida’s defense gives them a chance in every game they play,” Herbstreit said. “[But] it’s hard to imagine an offense that’s one dimensional moving the ball against that front seven from Alabama. [Head coach] Nick Saban and [defensive coordinator] Kirby Smart are going to put everybody at the line of scrimmage and make Florida throw the ball. The only chance Florida has…is they’ve got to get turnovers, and they’ve got to score non-offensive touchdowns. If they do that, crazy things happen.”
Fellow analyst Desmond Howard thinks Alabama is a one-trick pony, and that one-trick is Henry.
Alabama will have to focus on the keys to the matchup in order to walk away with the championship.
Saban said, “The key is you’ve got to do a really good job of executing, and you’ve got to have balance on offense. Obviously, you cannot turn the ball over against these guys, [because] they feast on negative plays.”
How the Tide plays on third down is also important.
“Their whole key today and any time they play is third down. They are [No. 111] in the country, one of the worst in the country when it’s third-and-six-plus,” Herbstreit said. “So if you’re asking what can Florida do in this game—if they hold up on first and second down, you saw their stats, they lead the nation in getting sacks on third down. So third down will be a big thing in this game for Alabama.”
The third key to the matchup also revolves around offense.
“I think [offensive coordinator] Lane Kiffin knows he’s got to run Derrick Henry today,” Herbstreit said as he watched video from the matchup against LSU in November. “If he gets to that second level and he’s running downhill, squares his shoulders, it allows him to do this where he can stiff arm that safety, and that’s one of the best in the SEC, [LSU S] Jamal Adams, and he just runs right by him. What you have to do is hope that your defensive line for Florida…can get penetration. You can’t allow him to run downhill untouched.”
Davis also asked the crew if Alabama should be ranked closer to No. 1 or No. 4.
Fellow analyst David Pollack believes Alabama should be closer to No. 1, because “Alabama has the dominant force” in its defense.
Everyone, including Herbstreit agreed.
“They’ve gotten to the point where they’ve become more balanced as a team. It used to be the defense and kind of managing things on offense early in the year, and I think now, as we’ve seen, they finally have created that identity with Derrick Henry,’ Herbstreit said. “And [QB] Jake Coker, remember early when they lost to Ole Miss, he didn’t start that game. Second half, he came back and almost brought them back to a victory. I don’t think their offense has looked back from that point on.”
“The development of [WR] Calvin Ridley on the outside, [WR] ArDarius Stewart—this is a football team right now that I think has the confidence in what they can do and throwing the football with Coker,” Herbstreit continued.
Herbstreit thinks No. 1 and No. 2 should be Alabama and Oklahoma, and Alabama will have a chance to jump to No. 1 if it plays well today against Florida.
If all the favorites win today, how will the Top 4 look?
“I think Alabama, if they look good against Florida, can go to [No.] 1,” Herbstreit said. “I think Clemson will be [No.] 2. I think Oklahoma will be at [No.] 3, and I think the winner of this game, Michigan State-Iowa, will be at [No.] 4.”
Analyst Lee Corso put Clemson at No. 4, even with a win today.
However, Alabama will have some distraction to get past in this game, with Smart being the rumored hire for the Georgia head coach position.
Davis asked the GameDay crew what they thought of the Mark Richt and Smart coaching moves.
Pollack said he can’t determine whether or not Richt being fired and Smart being hired was a good idea until Smart hires the rest of his staff and is able to prove himself as a head coach.
Herbstreit has already made up his mind though.
“I personally love the hire. I think the fact that [Smart’s] an alum, he loves this school, we’ve been waiting to find out where he might eventually go, or if he’d hold on at Alabama, and now he gets his opportunity at Georgia and he brings the blueprint,” Herbstreit said. “He’s got the book. He’s got the Nick Saban book. He’s going to put it into play there in Athens, and now we find out if this is going to be a team that can really live up to their potential. The OC is the biggest hire.”
Herbstreit thinks Richt will be successful at Miami, and that it will reenergize him.
Desmond Howard agreed with Herbstreit on both Smart and Richt, “When you go back to your alma mater, it gets personal.”
Alabama and Georgia aren’t the only teams in the SEC with pending coaching changes. South Carolina is closing in on its favorites, and it looks like Auburn defensive coordinator Will Muschamp and Arizona head coach Rich Rodriguez are the last men standing. Though the GameDay crew clearly prefers Rodriguez.
“I like Rich Rod. I think he’d be a great fit,” Herbstreit said. “I think his personality fits in Columbia, he used to coach as an assistance in Clemson, and he knows the region very well. And I just think his style and personality, along with Dabo [Swinney] in that state, it would be cool.”
Speaking of Swinney, he and his No. 1 Tigers have a big game today against No. 10 North Carolina for the ACC Championship. And with the help of former Auburn head coach Gene Chizik, the Tar Heels may give Clemson some trouble.
“Last year, the coordinator that didn’t get a lot of love was Gene Chizik,” Herbstreit said. “[And] now they’re playing well enough to give up 20 [points] a game to just keep them in the game and with the way they’re scoring points, they’ve been able to beat a lot of people, 11 in a row, and I think that’ll be the key in this game against Clemson.”
Herbstreit’s Conference Championship picks
- AAC Championship: No. 19 Houston over No. 22 Temple (HOU -6)
- C-USA Championship: Southern Mississippi over Western Kentucky (upset alert; WKU -7.5)
- SEC Championship: No. 2 Alabama over No. 18 Florida (ALA -17.5)
- Pac 12 Championship: No. 20 USC over No. 7 Stanford (upset alert; STAN -4.5)
- Big Ten Championship: No. 5 Michigan State over No. 4 Iowa (MSU -3.5)
The GameDay crew did not pick the Mountain West Championship with Air Force at San Diego State (SDSU -6.5), and Herbstreit didn’t pick the ACC Championship with No. 10 North Carolina vs. No. 1 Clemson (CLEM -5.5), because he’ll be calling the game.
