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Kentucky earned its highest-ever seed in the NCAA Tournament this year, and is set to host an exciting regional this weekend in Lexington.
iUK will be tasked with facing Indiana State, Illinois and Western Michigan in the Lexington Regional. The Wildcats are favored in the betting markets, although there may be some upset potential in this regional.
Kentucky is looking to advance to the Super Regional round in back-to-back seasons for the first time in program history. The Wildcats reached the Supers last year, but did not make it to Omaha for the College World Series. If they’re able to win their Regional this weekend, they will host a Super Regional in June.
Here’s a look at the schedule and latest betting odds for the Lexington Regional:
Schedule for the Lexington Regional (all times ET)
Friday, May 31
- Game 1 – 1 Kentucky vs. 4 Western Michigan, Noon (SEC Network)
- Game 2 – 2 Indiana State vs. 3 Illinois, 7 p.m. (ESPN+)
Saturday, June 1
- Game 3 – Loser of Game 1 vs. Loser of Game 2, Noon (TBD)
- Game 4 – Winner of Game 1 vs. Winner of Game 2, 6 p.m. (TBD)
Sunday, June 2
- Game 5 – Winner of Game 3 vs. Loser of Game 4, Noon (TBD)
- Game 6 – Winner of Game 5 vs. Winner of Game 4, 6 p.m. (TBD)
Monday, June 3
- Game 7 (if necessary) – Winner of Game 6 vs. Loser of Game 6, TBD (TBD)
Betting odds for Lexington Regional
Here are the latest odds from Caesars Sportsbook:
- Kentucky: -160
- Indiana State: +250
- Illinois: +500
- Western Michigan: +1500
Let’s break down all 4 teams in the Lexington Regional:
No. 1 Kentucky
Kentucky earned the No. 2 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament after splitting the SEC regular-season title with Tennessee. It’s the highest national seed Kentucky has received in the history of its program.
There may be some in the analytics community that would argue Kentucky is a little over-seeded — the Wildcats rank just 10th nationally in Sonny Moore’s power ratings entering this week. And to that point, Kentucky doesn’t have elite metrics offensively or on the mound.
However, the Wildcats did prove themselves over a long season in the SEC in order to get to this point. Kentucky went 22-8 in the SEC this season and won series against programs such as Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama, Arkansas and Florida, amongst others.
No. 2 Indiana State
Indiana State obviously played a lower level of competition this season than Kentucky, but the Sycamores shouldn’t be underestimated. They rank in the top-30 nationally in both slugging percentage and ERA, meaning this is a very balanced ball club that the Wildcats will have to deal with.
Indiana State dominated the Missouri Valley Conference, going 22-5 during the regular season. They finished the regular season ranked 10th nationally in RPI, although computer models such as Sonny Moore are much lower on Indiana State (53rd).
No. 3 Illinois
Illinois was one of just 3 teams to reach the NCAA Tournament out of the Big Ten. The Illini won the Big Ten regular-season title by 2 games, going 18-6 in conference play this spring.
Illinois didn’t have a great season on the mound as it has a team-wide ERA of 5.89. Cooper Omans was Illinois’ most-consistent starter this year, as he posted a 3.73 ERA in 60.1 innings of work. No other regular starter on the team had an ERA below 5.
The Illini do have a dangerous offense, however. They slugged .521 this season, which ranks 27th nationally entering the NCAA Tournament.
No. 4 Western Michigan
Western Michigan reached the NCAA Tournament this year by way of winning the MAC. They went 32-21 overall and 19-11 in conference play before ultimately winning the MAC Tournament title.
Western Michigan’s pitching staff is led by Nolan Vlcek, who posted a 4.15 ERA in over 80 innings this season. The strength of the Broncos’ staff, however, is in their bullpen. They have a deep stable of arms who helped contribute to 7 shutouts this season, which is tied for the second-most nationally.
Offensively, Western Michigan led the MAC with a .316 batting average. However, they did not generate a ton of power, ranking outside the top-125 nationally with just 64 home runs in 53 games. The trio of Cade Sullivan, Dylan Nevar and CJ Richmond combined to hit 38 of those 53 home runs.
Pick for Lexington Regional
I don’t know that I trust Kentucky to make a deep run in this tournament, but this seems to be a relatively-weak regional. There’s no other team within the top-50 of Sonny Moore’s power ratings, which sets up nicely for the Wildcats.
At -160, I think you’re getting a fair price on Kentucky given how the Wildcats acquitted themselves in the SEC this season. However, I probably wouldn’t pay much more juice than that to back this UK team.
If you’re looking to back someone besides Kentucky, Indiana State is +280 at ESPN BET to win this regional. I like that the Sycamores are proficient both at the plate and on the mound — their numbers are impressive, even given the lower quality of competition. Indiana State also has 10 wins this season against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opposition, which is worth noting as they take a step up from the MVC. I’m going with Kentucky, but Indiana State is worth considering.
PICK: Kentucky to win the Lexington Regional (-160)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
