The SEC championship semifinals are essentially set … right?

The road to Atlanta is always a crowded one. Which teams make it there usually comes down to two or three regular season games, and 2015 is no exception.

The SEC East almost certainly comes down to a single game on Halloween. The SEC West is more complicated, but it sure looks like that’s a two-team race based on the current trends.

Here are the matchups for the unofficial SEC Championship semifinals:

Florida vs. Georgia

When: October 31
Where: The Swamp
Why it matters: Florida is 4-1 in the SEC. Georgia is 3-2. If the Gators win, the SEC East title is all but officially theirs. Florida’s only roadblocks are Vanderbilt (Nov. 7) and South Carolina (Nov. 14). If the Bulldogs win, both teams would have two losses, but Georgia wins the tiebreaker. Kentucky (Nov. 7) and Auburn (Nov. 14) will be the only teams standing in the Bulldogs’ way.

Alabama vs. LSU

When: November 7
Where: Bryant-Denny
Why it matters: Potentially, a one-loss Alabama will face an undefeated LSU in Week 9. An Alabama win would give both teams a single loss, but the tiebreaker rolls in the Tide’s favor. Unfortunately for the Alabama, even if it also wins against Tennessee (Oct. 24), Mississippi State (Nov. 14) and Auburn (Nov. 28), only another Ole Miss loss can bring the SEC West title to Tuscaloosa. The Tigers and Heisman hopeful RB Leonard Fournette have the strongest chance of making it to the end. With a win in Tuscaloosa, they would stand as the only undefeated team in the SEC, and wins over Ole Miss (Nov. 21) and Texas A&M (Nov. 28) would secure their spot in the SEC Championship.

Again, the SEC West is not as straightforward as it may seem. The Alabama-LSU game very well could decide the division, but Texas A&M and Ole Miss aren’t out of it yet.

Wildcard 1: LSU vs. Texas A&M

When: November 28
Where: Tigers Stadium
Why it matters: If LSU and Texas A&M win every game between now and their matchup in late November, an Aggies win on Nov. 28 would put both teams at 7-1 in conference play. Because of the tiebreaker procedures the SEC uses, Texas A&M would then advance to the SEC Championship in Atlanta the following weekend.  First, the Aggies have to get past Ole Miss (Oct. 24), South Carolina (Oct. 31) and Auburn (Nov. 7).

Wildcard 2: Ole Miss vs. LSU

When: November 21
Where: Vaught-Hemingway
Why it matters: Even with two losses, the Rebels can still go to the SEC Championship if they win out. Surviving the remaining schedule won’t be easy for Ole Miss: Texas A&M (Oct. 24), Auburn (Oct. 31), Arkansas (Nov. 7) and Mississippi State (Nov. 28). Still, as long as Ole Miss ends the season with a single conference loss — the Week 3 loss to SEC East contender Florida — the Rebels have the tiebreaker in hand.

Jessi Lee