Precedent for Jim McElwain: A look at first-year SEC head coaches

Setting realistic expectations for a new coach is never easy.

The excitement about a new hire often leads fan bases to dream of instant success, but often the adjustments needed for the program to improve require more than just one year to implement.

Florida’s Jim McElwain is the only new head coaching hire in the SEC this season. He inherits a Gators team that went 7-5 in 2014 in Will Muschamp’s final season.

So how do we set a realistic goal for his first season in Gainesville?

A review of the 24 coaching changes for SEC programs in the last decade should give us some idea of what to expect.

During that span, the first year of the new regime resulted in a win total within two games of the old regime’s final season 58 percent of the time. That makes sense considering the new coach was, in most cases, operating primarily with the old coach’s players and recruits in that first season.

Given those numbers, the most likely outcome for McElwain’s first year is between five and nine wins.

However, some examples of significant outliers exist over that time period:

• 2008: Ole Miss hired Houston Nutt away from Arkansas and saw a six-game improvement above its last season with Ed Orgeron.
• 2011: Moving into the SEC, the Aggies’ decision to dump Mike Sherman for Kevin Sumlin was quickly rewarded with an 11-win season.
• 2012: Arkansas fell from an 11-win team under Bobby Petrino to a 4-8 record in a one-year stint with interim coach John L. Smith.
• 2012: Ole Miss erased to blemish of a 2-10 season in Houston Nutt’s final season with a quick rebound in the form of a 7-6 record in Hugh Freeze’s first season.
• 2013: Auburn gained nine wins in one season when the Tigers replaced Gene Chizik with former offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn.
• 2014: After back-to-back nine-win seasons under James Franklin, Derek Mason was unable to keep the momentum going in his first season, dropping all eight conference games in a 3-9 season.

Below is the complete list of coaching changes. See if you can spot your own trends.

SEC Coaching Changes since 2005

Alabama 

Mike Shula (5-7 in 2006); Nick Saban (7-5 in 2007)

Arkansas

Houston Nutt (8-5 in 2007); Bobby Petrino (5-7 in 2008)
Bobby Petrino (11-2 in 2011); John L. Smith (4-8 in 2012)
John L. Smith (4-8 in 2012); Bret Bielema (3-9 in 2013)

Auburn

Tommy Tuberville (5-7 in 2008); Gene Chizik (8-5 in 2009)
Gene Chizik (3-9 in 2012); Gus Malzahn (12-2 in 2013)

Florida

Ron Zook (7-5 in 2004); Urban Meyer (9-3 in 2005)
Urban Meyer (8-5 in 2010); Will Muschamp (7-6 in 2011)

Georgia

-None-

Kentucky

Rich Brooks (7-6 in 2009); Joker Phillips (6-7 in 2010)
Joker Phillips (2-10 in 2012); Mark Stoops (2-10 in 2013)

LSU

Nick Saban (9-3 in 2004); Les Miles (11-2 in 2005)

Mississippi State

Sylvester Croom (4-8 in 2008); Dan Mullen (5-7 in 2009)

Missouri

-None-

Ole Miss 

David Cutcliffe (4-7 in 2004); Ed Orgeron (3-8 in 2005)
Ed Orgeron (3-9 in 2007); Houston Nutt (9-4 in 2008)
Houston Nutt (2-10 in 2011); Hugh Freeze (7-6 in 2012)

South Carolina

Lou Holtz (6-5 in 2004); Steve Spurrier (7-5 in 2005)

Tennessee

Phillip Fulmer (5-7 in 2008); Lane Kiffin (7-6 in 2009)
Lane Kiffin (7-6 in 2009); Derek Dooley (6-7 in 2010)
Derek Dooley (5-7 in 2012); Butch Jones (5-7 in 2013)

Texas A&M

Dennis Franchione (7-6 in 2007); Mike Sherman (4-8 in 2008)
Mike Sherman (7-6 in 2011); Kevin Sumlin (11-2 in 2012)

Vanderbilt

Bobby Johnson (2-10 in 2009); Robbie Caldwell (2-10 in 2010)
Robbie Caldwell (2-10 in 2010); James Franklin (6-7 in 2011)
James Franklin (9-4 in 2013); Derek Mason (3-9 in 2014)

Nick Cole

Nick Cole is a former print journalist with several years of experience covering the SEC. Born and raised in SEC country, he has taken in the game-day experience at all 14 stadiums.