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Can LSU, Brian Kelly finally do something special? Beating Alabama would be a huge start
By Les East
Published:
LSU has done a lot of good stuff during head coach Brian Kelly’s 3 seasons.
It has had back-to-back 10-win seasons, and a 3rd straight is realistic as the 6-2 Tigers enter the homestretch.
It beat Nick Saban in Kelly’s first crack at Alabama and it is 2-0 in bowl games under Kelly.
It landed at No. 15 in the first Playoff rankings on Tuesday night and can strengthen its resume by beating No. 11 Alabama on Saturday night in Tiger Stadium.
But for all the good stuff that Kelly’s Tigers have done, they have stumbled when they have had an opportunity to do something special.
In each of Kelly’s 3 seasons, LSU has squandered much of its Playoff margin for error on Labor Day weekend, losing its opener to Florida State in 2022 and 2023 and to USC this season.
To Kelly and his teams’ credit, they have recovered well enough each season to regain national relevance, but they haven’t been able to maintain it.
In 2022, 3 weeks after beating the Crimson Tide and clinching the SEC West, No. 6 LSU lost at bowl-ineligible Texas A&M, 38-23 (remember that score) and saw its CFP hopes vanish.
Last season a 2nd September loss (to Ole Miss) put its Playoff hopes on life support and an early November loss to Alabama finished them.
This season a 6-game winning streak had the Tigers surging as they went to College Station 2 weeks ago to face Texas A&M in a matchup of the last 2 undefeated teams in SEC play.
But just like 2022, the Aggies knocked off LSU, and just like 2022, the final score was 38-23.
So the Tigers failed to take advantage of an opportunity to take sole possession of first place in the SEC and strengthen their CFP resume. But A&M missed a big opportunity itself, losing at South Carolina last week and dropping into a group of teams with 1 SEC loss, which also includes LSU, Georgia, Texas and Tennessee.
That improves the Tigers’ prospects for reaching the SEC Championship Game, provided they keep winning.
The opportunity is there. Again.
A victory over the Tide would certainly move LSU over Alabama in next week’s CFP rankings and with games remaining at Florida and at home against Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, 3 opponents against whom the Tigers will likely be favored, another opportunity to do something special will be within grasp.
Because Georgia and Tennessee face each other, and Texas and Texas A&M face each other, LSU can guarantee itself a spot among the top 3 (or fewer) teams in the SEC by winning out, and the SEC seems headed for at least 3 CFP berths.
The Tigers are familiar with controlling their fate and seeing a plausible path to the CFP. But they’re just as familiar with losing control of their fate and veering off that path.
When LSU lured Kelly away from Notre Dame, where he was the program’s winningest coach, the only thing missing from his resume was a national championship. He led the Fighting Irish to 10-plus wins in each of the final 5 seasons of his 12-year tenure.
He twice got the Fighting Irish into the Playoff and led them to the BCS Championship Game at the end of the 2012 season. Kelly’s teams lost by lopsided margins each time – 42-14 against Alabama in the BCS title game, 30-3 to Clemson in the 2018 CFP semifinals and 31-14 to Alabama in the 2020 CFP semifinals.
The lack of competitiveness in all 3 games generally was viewed in 1 of 2 ways: Kelly didn’t have the talent to win a championship at Notre Dame and Kelly did a fine job in getting those teams as close as he did, or Kelly’s ceiling as a coach was lower than a national-championship level.
LSU, which has had sufficient talent for each of Kelly’s most immediate predecessors – Ed Orgeron, Les Miles and Nick Saban – to win a national championship, prefaced its announcement of Kelly’s hiring by saying, “the search for LSU Football’s next championship head coach is over.”
Another loss in another season-turning game Saturday night might renew scrutiny of just where Kelly’s ceiling is.
Les East is a New Orleans-based football writer who covers LSU for SaturdayDownSouth.com. Follow him on Twitter @Les_East.
