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Did we overreact to LSU’s opening loss? Tigers have a chance to change narrative vs. Ole Miss
By Les East
Published:
LSU has yet to live up to the most optimistic expectations for this season.
The Tigers were ranked No. 13 in the AP preseason poll, but they didn’t look the part in a 27-20 loss to preseason No. 23 USC in the opener.
They haven’t lost since, but …
Their 44-21 victory over FCS opponent Nicholls didn’t come as easily as expected.
They fell behind South Carolina 17-0 in their SEC opener, though they did fight back to claim a nice 36-33 victory.
They were tied at 17 at halftime against an offensively challenged UCLA team before outscoring the Bruins 17-0 in the second half.
And they were finally dominant in their most recent game, but a 42-10 victory against South Alabama doesn’t vindicate the preseason expectations though LSU has clawed its way back to No. 13.
But the disappointment of the Tigers’ start to the season seems overblown – or at least premature.
LSU had its best weekend of the season last week as it enjoyed the first of its 2 open dates. Alabama, Tennessee and Missouri all suffered their first SEC losses, joining Georgia, Ole Miss and Oklahoma as presumed contenders for the conference title that suffered league losses during the first half of the season.
When the smoke cleared, the Tigers were 1 of just 3 SEC teams still undefeated in conference play, joining 1-0 Texas and 3-0 Texas A&M.
Of course the fact that other teams lost and LSU has a back-loaded conference schedule doesn’t mean this team has everything figured out. The Tigers could easily disappoint again, perhaps as soon as their game against No. 9 Ole Miss on Saturday night in Tiger Stadium.
A loss wouldn’t necessarily end LSU’s SEC title hopes, but a second loss would put their Playoff hopes on life support just like the 55-49 road loss to the Rebels did last season when the Tigers dropped to 3-2.
But Saturday’s game is an opportunity for LSU to turn the tables on Ole Miss and all but end the SEC title hopes for the Rebels, who lost at home to Kentucky 2 weeks go.
Putting the standings and records aside, the primary reason for thinking the Tigers might not be a disappointing team after all is that that they have been showing signs of ascending.
They have played much better defense in the past 6 quarters, allowing just 1 touchdown, and they picked a really good time for a turnaround because the Rebels gained more than 700 yards last season in 1 of the worst defensive performances in LSU history.
Even soon-to-be Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels and the most productive offense in the country couldn’t keep up with Jaxson Dart and the Ole Miss offense.
Tigers coach Brian Kelly acknowledged Monday that he didn’t want to get into a shoot-out with Lane Kiffin’s offense last season, but he didn’t have any choice because that LSU team was “clearly tilted to one side of the ball.”
“That’s not the right way (to play),” Kelly added, “but it was the only way to play.”
Kelly has no intention of trying to play this week’s game the same way.
“I think there’s much more balance in our football team,” Kelly said. “We’re much further along. This isn’t the same defense.”
Another reason to think the Tigers might be ascending is the emergence of freshman running back Caden Durham. LSU began the season with a running-back-by-committee approach and Durham, 4th on the depth chart, didn’t touch the ball in the opener.
But when John Emery suffered a season-ending knee injury in practice the week after the opener, Durham got an opportunity to compete with Kaleb Jackson and Josh Williams. Durham got his feet wet with 5 carries against Nicholls, then broke out with 11 carries for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns to spur the comeback at South Carolina.
Durham had just 14 rushing yards against UCLA, but caught 2 passes for 40 yards and a touchdown. Against South Alabama he had 258 yards of total offense and scored 2 touchdowns despite missing the 2nd half with a foot injury that Kelly said is now “100 percent.”
The balance that Durham has brought to the offense should make Garrett Nussmeier (5th in the country in passing yards per game and passing touchdowns) even more effective. Nussmeier leads the SEC with 15 TD passes — 2 more than Dart.
In addition to Durham, Nussmeier and the improving defense, there is 1 other reason to think LSU is headed in the right direction – Kelly.
His first Tigers team 2 years ago was 4-2 before winning 6 of its last 8, and 1 of those late losses came against eventual national champion Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. Last year’s team went 7-1 after the loss to Ole Miss.
The jury is still out on this team’s ceiling, but it seems somewhat obvious that most of the country overreacted to the opening act.
A win Saturday night would erase those thoughts and replace them with realistic hopes of making the Playoff.
Les East is a New Orleans-based football writer who covers LSU for SaturdayDownSouth.com. Follow him on Twitter @Les_East.
