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Whoever wins the game between No. 8 LSU and No. 14 Texas A&M on Saturday night will be the last team undefeated in SEC play.
No one saw that coming before this season started.
Eight SEC teams were ranked in the AP preseason Top 25, and the Tigers (No. 13) and the Aggies (No. 20) were 2 of the lowest ranked teams. But LSU (6-1, 3-0) and A&M (6-1, 4-0) have both won 6 consecutive games after non-conference losses in their season-openers.
They clearly belong where they are.
Georgia, Texas, Missouri and Tennessee all have 1 loss, and Alabama and Ole Miss both have 2 losses. And come next week, everyone in the conference will be chasing the winner of the showdown in College Station.
The Tigers and the Aggies seem very evenly matched and oddsmakers have made homestanding A&M a 2.5-point favorite, via FanDuel Sportsbook.
This game on the final weekend in October will have a November feel to it, and it figures to be close and undecided until the final moments.
Here are 3 keys and a prediction for LSU-Texas A&M:
1. Offensive balance
Of course this is a key in a lot of games, but it stands out in this matchup because both teams are better in 1 aspect of their offense than the other, making their ability to rise to the occasion in the other aspect a better difference-maker.
LSU passes the ball really well (No. 5 in the SEC) and A&M runs it really well (No. 2 in the SEC). The Tigers are just 14th in rushing and the Aggies are just 11th in passing.
So whoever is more effective between LSU’s running game and A&M’s passing game will have the better chance of being balanced and more productive on offense.
The Tigers’ Garrett Nussmeier (18 TD passes, most in the SEC) has been one of the most productive passers in the country and the Aggies’ Conner Weigman (3 TD passes, 4 INTs) has much less impressive statistics, but his cumulative stats are misleading because he missed 3-plus games due to a sprained shoulder. Two weeks ago, in his first full game of the season, he was outstanding and his team had its best performance of the season in a 41-10 victory against Missouri.
The Aggies’ Le’Veon Moss has been the 2nd-most productive rusher in the SEC and the Tigers don’t have anyone who can match his statistics, but freshman Caden Durham has emerged during the past month to give LSU’s offense a more viable running game.
Durham’s breakout performance was the catalyst for LSU overcoming a 17-0 deficit and beating South Carolina on the road (36-33) in Week 3.
This game doesn’t exactly come down to Weigman vs. Durham, but if 1 has a significantly better game than the other, his team will have a great opportunity.
2. Will LSU’s defense continue its recent improvement?
Mike Elko’s Aggies have had the better defense for the whole season, ranking No. 6 in scoring defense in the SEC and No. 8 in total defense while the Tigers ranked No. 9 in scoring defense and No. 14 in total defense.
But LSU has been improving for a few weeks now, having beaten Arkansas 34-10 on the road last week after defeating visiting Ole Miss 29-26 in overtime a week earlier.
The 24 points that A&M allowed in a 10-point victory against host Mississippi State last Saturday marked the first time that the Aggies have allowed more than 20 points since a 23-13 home loss to Notre Dame to start the season.
Keeping in mind key No. 1, LSU is most susceptible to the weaker part of A&M’s attack (passing), ranking No. 15, and the Aggies are most susceptible to the weaker part of the Tigers offense (rushing), ranking No. 11. That might prevent this from becoming a shoot-out.
Both defenses have been pretty good at taking the ball away as LSU ranks No. 5 and A&M ranks No. 8. If either defense has an advantage in taking it away in this game, that could make the difference.
3. The team that makes the most big plays
Aside from turnovers, other big plays could easily make the difference. A blocked or missed kick or a big punt or kickoff return could produce points or at least flip field position sufficiently to help produce big points.
Similarly, any long runs or pass completions, whether they actually produce points or lead to them, could make a difference.
That’s certainly not unique to this game, but it does stand out in a matchup that is this even.
One reason is that neither team excels at creating explosive plays. Despite Nussmeier’s reputation as a gun-slinger, LSU has just 13 plays that have gone for 30 or more yards (11 passing, 2 rushing). Texas A&M has just 12 (7 passing, 5 rushing). Similarly, LSU has allowed 1 more such play than Texas A&M.
In a game with such small margins, 1 big play could make the difference.
Prediction …
It will be close. There will be multiple lead changes. No one will be able to relax until the final seconds of the 4th quarter – or perhaps beyond. In the end, Nussmeier’s playmaking will exceed Weigman’s and LSU will escape with a tough victory.
LSU 30, Texas A&M 27.
Les East is a New Orleans-based football writer who covers LSU for SaturdayDownSouth.com. Follow him on Twitter @Les_East.
