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March Madness: Predicting how far LSU goes in the NCAA Tournament
By Les East
Published:
LSU lost its second game in the SEC Tournament.
Then it lost its head coach.
It was an eventful, in a bad way, couple of days Friday and Saturday.
But Selection Sunday is about an opportunity that is presented, and neither the loss to Arkansas in the SEC Tournament nor the subsequent, unexpected firing of coach Will Wade changed the fact that the Tigers are headed to the NCAA Tournament.
It will be interim coach Kevin Nickelberry and not Wade leading 6th-seeded LSU against 11th-seeded Iowa State in the Midwest Region in Milwaukee on Friday.
The sudden absence of a head coach – especially at this time of year – can leave a team disoriented and destined for a brief postseason stay. Or it can galvanize a team if the players and their new leader close ranks and take an us-against-the-world mentality.
The losses in singular leadership, familiarity and organization can be replaced by gains in cumulative leadership and a single-minded focus.
LSU was in a similar situation 3 years ago when Wade was suspended before the regular-season finale and Tony Benford was named interim head coach.
That team responded well, beating Vanderbilt in the regular-season finale to clinch the title and, after losing to Florida in the SEC Tournament opener, advancing to the Sweet 16 before losing to Michigan State.
No one knows how this team will respond to Nickelberry and this challenge, but the interim head coach has been an accomplished head coach previously – most notably at Howard University.
LSU does have veteran leadership in Darius Days and Xavier Pinson. It does have talent and versatility when Tari Eason, Brandon Murray, Efton Reid and Eric Gaines, along with Days and Pinson.
Whatever remains of this season belongs to the players. It’s up to them to decide whether the dismissal of Wade is an obstacle that they cannot overcome or a challenge that will inspire them to be the best version of themselves from here on out.
This team went 12-0 against its pre-SEC schedule and rose to No. 12 in the Associated Press poll.
It lost 6 of 7 games in the middle of the SEC season, which coincided with a Pinson knee injury that kept him out of 5 games and limited him in others.
Pinson regained much of his early season form – and so did LSU – down the stretch, though the team was inconsistent.
The Tigers are a dangerous team because they are one of the best defensive teams in the country. And that swarming, turnover-producing defense, as well as an ability to beat their opponent on the offensive board, can elevate an average offense to better than average, and the team as a whole to a very good unit.
But LSU also can be a stagnant team offensively, meaning anything less than exceptional defense is likely to produce a mediocre performance.
So Iowa State doesn’t know exactly what it will be facing.
The Cyclones (20-12, 7-11 Big 12) were knocked out of the Big 12 Tournament in a 72-41 quarterfinal loss to Texas Tech on Thursday.
ISU shot just 31.3% from the floor and committed 20 turnovers, which are two areas where LSU has caused problems for opponents.
The Cyclones are on a 3-game losing streak that started with a 53-36 loss to Oklahoma State. They have scored fewer than 50 points in 4 of their losses this season.
But they do have a series of impressive wins in coach TJ Otzelberger’s debut season. After going 2-22 a year ago, ISU beat Xavier and Memphis in the NIT Season Tip-off in November and have other notable wins against Creighton, Iowa, Texas, TCU and Texas Tech.
The Cyclones’ turnaround was led by a pair of first-year guards – Big 12 Newcomer of the Year Izaiah Brockington, a transfer from Penn State who also played at St. Bonaventure, and Freshman of the Year Tyrese Hunter.
Brockington leads the team in scoring (17.2) and rebounding (7.1) and Hunter is 2nd in scoring (10.8).
LSU showed what it can be in its victory against Missouri in the SEC Tournament as the defense was elite (at least for 20 minutes), Eason and his teammates stayed out of foul trouble, Reid played up to his status as a 5-star recruit, Days and Pinson played like stars, Murray had an excellent floor game and Gaines complemented Eason’s scoring off the bench.
Then the Tigers showed what else they can be in their loss to Arkansas, getting into foul trouble, having lapses on offense and defense and basically playing unlike an NCAA Tournament team.
LSU was a difficult team to predict when Wade was coaching it.
The Tigers are even less predictable now.
But they appear to have drawn a favorable matchup and should prevail in a low-scoring game Friday.
Then comes reality: a season-ending matchup (presumably) against No. 3 seed Wisconsin on Sunday. If that happens, it’ll mean the Tigers have gone to the Sweet 16 just 1 time since the 2006 Final Four time.
Maybe the next coach can change those fortunes.
Les East is a New Orleans-based football writer who covers LSU for SaturdayDownSouth.com. Follow him on Twitter @Les_East.
