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Recruiting rankings are an inexact science.
Miami quarterback Cam Ward is the prime example. He wasn’t exactly Rudy, a nobody from nowhere. But after arriving as a lightly-recruited no-star recruit at Incarnate Word, he’s leaving as the all-time Division I leader in touchdown passes.
And yet for all such glaring whiffs, the recruiting experts have far more hits than misses with their talent evaluations.
The rosters of the remaining College Football Playoff teams bear that out. Six of the 8 quarterfinalists are among the top 11 among FBS programs in the composite roster rankings compiled by 247Sports.
Georgia and Ohio State rank No. 2 and 3 overall, behind only Alabama, with identical totals of 14 5-star players and 55 4-stars. Texas ranks 4th with 7 5-stars and 50 4-stars, followed by Oregon (6th with 6 5-stars, 50 4-stars), Notre Dame (9th with 1 5-star, 57 4-stars) and Penn State (11th 4 5-stars, 48 4-stars).
Neither Arizona State, which ranks 30th, nor No. 76 Boise State have a single 5-star, although the Broncos did until backup quarterback Malachi Nelson left the team to enter the transfer portal.
That won’t matter once the ball is kicked off and the games begin. The stars are always going to shine, even if some have fewer beside their names than others – including these former 3-star recruits who have the potential to take over the Playoff and carry their teams 1 step closer to a national championship:
Arizona State: CB Keith Abney II
Arizona State’s roster is filled with overachievers, none bigger than transfer RB Cam Skattebo, who, like Ward, was actually a no-star recruit who blossomed into a Heisman candidate. But we’ve limited this exercise to “3-stars” only and you already know how special Skattebo is, so Abney gets the nod. The Sun Devils ranked only 8th in the Big 12 in pass defense this season. But they were No. 2 in the league behind BYU with 15 interceptions. Abney, a 5-11, 185-pound sophomore from Dallas, led the way with 3, including a pick during a decisive 3rd quarter against Iowa State in the Big 12 Conference championship game victory that earned Arizona State its Playoff bid. He has also recorded 50 tackles and 7 PBUs. A sprinter who also runs the 100 meters for his school’s track team, Abney has the speed to go stride-for-stride with Texas’ big-play receivers Matthew Golden, Isaiah Bond and Ryan Wingo, all of whom average better than 16 yards per catch, and the ball skill to help keep them from doing significant damage when they’re targeted downfield.
Boise State: RB Ashton Jeanty
The Mountain West champions have only 1 composite 4-star recruit, safety Chris Marshall. Virtually everyone else on the roster, 78 to be exact, was given 3 stars. So take your pick. But if the Broncos are going to shock the world, take down Penn State in the Peach Bowl and go where no other Group of 5 team has gone before, it’s going to be their Heisman trophy runner-up who takes them there. Jeanty has been nearly unstoppable while averaging nearly 200 yards on the ground per game and scoring an FBS-leading 29 rushing touchdowns. He needs only 132 yards against the Nittany Lions to break Barry Sanders’ NCAA single-season rushing mark of 2,628 yards set in 1988.
Georgia: WR Dillon Bell
With starting quarterback Carson Beck out after undergoing season-ending elbow surgery 2 days before Christmas, it will be important for the Bulldogs’ receiving corps to give replacement Gunner Stockton all the help he can get. Especially a secondary target like Bell, The junior from Houston has been a key component in both the passing and running games. His 37 catches rank 3rd on the team and his 4 touchdowns are tied for 2nd. He’s also averaging 13.3 yards per carry with a touchdown on jet sweeps, an element of the offense that could become more prominent moving forward with Beck’s absence shifting more of an emphasis onto the ground game.
Notre Dame: QB Riley Leonard
Georgia has had trouble containing mobile quarterbacks this season. While Leonard isn’t as elusive as Alabama’s Jalen Milroe or Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart, look for the Irish to exploit that vulnerability by utilizing Leonard’s dual-threat skills even more than usual as part of a running game that ranks among the nation’s leaders at 222.4 yards per game. Leonard is Notre Dame’s 2nd-leading rusher with 751 yards and 15 touchdowns. The Duke transfer is also completing 66% of his passes as the triggerman for an offense that averages 39 points but might not have to score that many to beat a Georgia team playing without its starting quarterback.
Ohio State: QB Will Howard
Howard was only a 3-star recruit when he committed to Kansas State out of Downingtown, Pa., in 2019, but he looked like a million bucks in Ohio State’s impressive opening-round rout of Tennessee. The 6-4, 235-pound graduate put virtually every throw he made right where he wanted it while going 24-of-29 for 311 yards and 2 touchdowns. The performance was especially impressive considering that it came on the heels of Howard’s worst effort of the season in a loss to Michigan that knocked the Buckeyes out of the Big Ten championship picture. There’s no doubt that Howard has the ability to lead Ohio State to a national title. The only question is which version of him will show up New Year’s Day against Oregon in the Rose Bowl.
Oregon: QB Dillon Gabriel
The Ducks’ Heisman finalist might be a little rusty after spending nearly a month on the sidelines waiting patiently to play again since helping his team beat Penn State for the Big Ten title. But that inactivity should be offset by the confidence he’ll bring into his second meeting with Ohio State this season. Gabriel lit up the Buckeyes for 341 passing yards and 2 touchdowns while scoring the game-winning touchdown on a late 27-yard run in a 32-31 win on Oct. 12. Along with that swag and talent that helped him throw for 28 touchdowns with only 6 interceptions this season, Gabriel can also play the disrespect card. Despite being the top seed and the nation’s only undefeated team, Oregon is a 2.5-point underdog, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Penn State: TE Tyler Warren
It’s hard to imagine Warren as we see him today as only a 3-star recruit. But that’s because he was a high school quarterback who didn’t find his true calling as a tight end until he arrived at Happy Valley. Even now as the John Mackey Award winner, he is anything but a traditional tight end. Warren is a tank at 6-6, 256 pounds with the hands and footwork of a wide receiver and the size and physicality of an offensive lineman. Not only are his 92 catches are just 5 off Allen Robinson’s single-season Penn State record, but he’s also taken snaps out of the Wildcat formation, run for 4 touchdowns and even thrown for a score. His ability to impact a game in so many ways will present Boise State’s defense with the kind of challenge it has yet to see this season.
Texas: RB Tre Wisner
After a freshman season spent contributing mostly on special teams, Wisner was projected to play a backup role this season. But that changed when CJ Baxter suffered a season-ending ACL tear in preseason camp. Thrust into a more prominent spot on the depth chart, the 6-0, 200-pound DeSoto, Texas, native responded by rushing for a team-leading 973 yards and 5 touchdowns while teaming with former 4-star prospect Jaydon Blue to form one of college football’s most potent running back tandems. Wisner has run for more than 100 yards in 3 of his past 4 games, including 110 in an opening-round win against Clemson. His ability as a receiver with 34 catches out of the backfield will make him even more of a chore for Arizona State to contain.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
