Ad Disclosure
Mississippi State football: 5 dream/disaster scenarios for the Bulldogs in 2022
By Les East
Published:
Mississippi State has one of the more experienced teams in the SEC.
The Bulldogs return 8 offensive starters and 8 defensive starters from last season.
Head coach Mike Leach and defensive coordinator Will Arnett, whose unit should be the strength of the team, are both entering their 3rd seasons, which should further enhance the continuity.
In a best-case scenario, State (7-6 and 4-4 last season) is poised to break through as a contender in the SEC West.
In a worst-case scenario, the Bulldogs won’t have enough influx of talent to elevate the holdovers beyond their middle-of-the-pack status last season.
Here are 5 dream/disaster scenarios for State. Let’s start with the dreaming.
1. Will Rogers doesn’t have another record-setting year
This might sound counterintuitive, but hang on.
Rogers had the most prolific passing season in school history and 3rd most in SEC history last season. And his accuracy, consistency and sheer productivity were the primary factors in the team’s success.
But that team success was limited.
More completions and more passing yards could mean a better team. But it’s more likely that a better team will require fewer completions and fewer passing yards to keep up with opponents.
2. The defense finishes in the top 3rd of the SEC
The Bulldogs have a deep defensive line, lots of experience among the starting linebackers and a little of both in the secondary.
In each of the last 2 seasons, they have finished in the top 5 in the SEC in total defense, 1st downs allowed, takeaways, rushing defense and yards per rush.
But they were just 9th in the conference in scoring defense last season (25.9 points per game). If they can translate their defensive play into a lower scoring average more in line with their yardage stats, they might break through.
3. The wide receivers make everyone forget Makai Polk and Malik Heath
Naturally, there is some concern about the receiving corps, because Polk moved on to the NFL after setting school records last season and Heath transferred to Ole Miss after a big season of his own.
But State has a ton of capable receivers. Some are returning veterans who caught a whole bunch of balls during Rogers’ record-setting run, and some came through the transfer portal.
The receiving corps is going to be just fine.
But if 1 or 2 guys emerge and have seasons comparable to those of Polk and Heath, then the group and maybe the season become special.
4. The kickers are a whole lot better than last season
The kicking will be better than last season. It almost has to be after State’s kickers made just 14 of 25 field goals, worst in the SEC.
Leach brought in 2 proven transfers — Massimo Biscardi and Ben Raybon — to ensure that the kicking is better.
But just being better than last season — or even moving out of last place in the conference in field-goal percentage — might not mean a whole lot.
If the Bulldogs’ kickers can be very good — among the best in the SEC — that can make a big difference. State lost 3 games by a total of 8 points last season.
5. The running backs do more running
Jo’Quavious Marks and Dillon Johnson both made the preseason watch list for the Doak Walker Award, which goes to the nation’s top running back.
That’s impressive for 2 guys participating in the least productive running game in the SEC last season. It shows a recognition for the value both have as pass catchers and blockers, in addition to their periodic contributions as runners.
But the 2 are entering their 3rd season together in Leach’s offense, and they certainly would come through if given additional opportunities as rushers.
Leach isn’t going to change the offense a great deal, but a greater threat from the running game would be a boost to the offense and the team.
Now for the disaster scenarios:
1. They stumble in one of the first 2 games
The Bulldogs open the season at home against Memphis before visiting Arizona. They’ll probably be favored in both games, but Memphis beat State last season, and Arizona should be much better after finishing 1-10.
So if the Bulldogs don’t sweep these games, they’ll already be in a tough spot before opening SEC play at LSU on Sept. 17.
2. The new tackles can’t match their predecessors
State has a solid, experienced interior of its offensive line, but it’s replacing its starting tackles from last season.
It has big, strong, talented replacement candidates, including Kwatrivous Johnson (the likely starter on the left side) and Albert Reese IV and Kameron Jones (competing on the right side), but there’s no way of knowing if the new starters will be ready to handle SEC defensive ends as well as their predecessors (Charles Cross and Scott Lashley) did.
If they aren’t, that could create disruption for Rogers, and timing is especially critical in Leach’s offense.
3. The secondary slips
The secondary, which had just 11 interceptions, was arguably the weakest unit on the defense last season, and 2 of the 3 lost defensive starters were defensive backs.
The defense as a whole should be good, including the secondary. But the relatively inexperienced group and unproven depth could hold the defense back if players taking on expanded roles don’t live up to expexzctations.
4. The offense’s bottom line doesn’t improve
State did really well last season in total yards (441.5 per game) and time of possession (No. 1 in the SEC at nearly 34 minutes per game).
But holding onto the football and moving up and down the field didn’t produce as many points as they probably should have. The Bulldogs tied for 9th in the SEC with a scoring average of 29.1.
If the Bulldogs don’t do a better job of finishing drives with points, especially touchdowns, they’re not going to improve.
5. Rogers has to have another record-setting year
Getting back to the first dream scenario, the whole Rogers thing is a little tricky.
Rogers throwing for more record numbers of completions and yards obviously can be helpful, but there can be a flip side to that.
Even less productivity than normal from the running game — as well as a need to throw even more than normal because of numerous and lingering deficits — would mean the historic passing stats are a sign of desperation as well as productivity.
The point is: Rogers is going to throw a whole bunch of passes. He’s going to complete a bunch and gain a ton of yards and produce a good number of touchdowns.
The key is the context within which those gains primarily come.
If the numbers shrink, but come as part of complementary football for a well-rounded team, that’s a dream scenario.
But if the numbers increase because an incomplete team is trying to use its passing game to overcome shortcomings elsewhere, that’s a disaster scenario.
Les East is a New Orleans-based football writer who covers LSU for SaturdayDownSouth.com. Follow him on Twitter @Les_East.
