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Mississippi State vs. LSU: Final thoughts and a prediction

Les East

By Les East

Published:


The Mississippi State and LSU football programs are very familiar with one another.

Their current head coaches? Not so much.

The Bulldogs and Tigers will meet for the 116th time when they open SEC play Saturday at Tiger Stadium.

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State has been LSU’s opponent more often than any other school. LSU has been State’s opponent the 2nd-most times of any school — behind Ole Miss.

But this will be the 1st time that Bulldogs coach Mike Leach and Tigers coach Brian Kelly have opposed one another.

Over the past 2-plus decades, they have been 2 of the more recognizable head coaches in college football. They have known each other since they were both starting out as coaches at smaller programs.

In the early 1990s, Leach was an assistant at Iowa Wesleyan and Valdosta State as Kelly was in the early stages of a 13-year tenure as head coach at Grand Valley State.

Now they’re well-established head coaches trying to put down roots in the SEC.

Leach’s first game as an SEC head coach came a little less than 2 years ago in the same stadium where Kelly will coach in his first SEC game Saturday.

State stunned the reigning CFP champions, 44-34, and Leach’s 3rd team looks like it might be one of the better ones in the SEC West after starting the season with lopsided victories against Memphis and Arizona.

Kelly’s team is 1-1 as the Tigers try to improve on their last-place finish in the division last season.

But no one has played an SEC game yet. This matchup will provide the first tangible evidence of how both teams might fare in the conference this season.

LSU used to be known as “DBU” because it had had so many top-flight defensive backs. This secondary doesn’t look like DBU on paper, but it can raise its profile if it holds up against Will Rogers and Leach’s “Air Raid” passing game.

Seven Bulldogs already have at least 1 touchdown reception.

The Tigers have similar depth among their wide receivers, though only 4 have touchdown catches thus far.

Last season, State had the least productive running game in the SEC, and LSU had the next worst. Both are improved so far as the Tigers are No. 8 (184.5) — plus top running back John Emery II will make his season debut Saturday — and the Bulldogs are No. 11 (101.5).

These teams are tied for 2nd in the SEC in scoring (44.0), State ranks 8th in scoring defense (20.0) and LSU ranks 9th (20.0).

State has taken the ball away 5 times, but it has given it away 4 times.

LSU has taken the ball away 6 times, and 34 of its 88 points have come off those turnovers. The Tigers have given the ball away 4 times, though 2 of those were interceptions by backup Garrett Nussmeier, who doesn’t figure to play Saturday.

Leach addressed the worst placekicking in the SEC last season by bringing in transfers Massimo Biscardi (Coastal Carolina) and Ben Raybon (Northern Colorado).

The Bulldogs didn’t attempt a field goal in the opener, and Biscardi made all 7 extra-point attempts. But when Biscardi missed extra points after the first 2 touchdowns against Arizona, Leach turned to Raybon, who made all 5 of his extra-point attempts and 2 short field goals (39, 22).

Leach said this week that the 2 kickers will continue to compete in practice, and both could still have a role.

LSU’s special teams were awful against Florida State and excellent in a 65-17 thrashing of FCS foe Southern last week.

The Tigers won last year’s meeting with the Bulldogs, 28-25 in Starkville.

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Prediction: State 34, LSU 31

These teams seem closely matched, and any advantage in turnovers could easily tilt the outcome one way or the other.

But the Bulldogs are the more cohesive team and a bit more battled-tested through 2 games. Jayden Daniels and the Tigers will keep the pressure up throughout the game, but Rogers will always be able to make 1 more play when State needs it to stay on top.

Les East

Les East is a New Orleans-based football writer who covers LSU for SaturdayDownSouth.com. Follow him on Twitter @Les_East.

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