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Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Mizzou. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 16-team SEC.
Previously: Alabama | Arkansas | Auburn | Florida | Georgia| Kentucky| LSU
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To say I saw that coming would be a lie.
If you had told me at this time last year that Mizzou was about to rip off an 11-win season that ended with a New Year’s 6 bowl victory against Ohio State, I would’ve laughed you out of the room. Obviously. I predicted the Tigers would go 6-6. I would’ve told you to go touch grass and return only once that message-board fantasy left your brain. I would’ve squinted at you for several seconds just to see if you could keep a straight face.
Mizzou’s 11-2 season wasn’t flukey, either. Mizzou could’ve pulled out a win against 10-win LSU and while it wasn’t necessarily in control against Georgia, the Tigers made the Dawgs play a 60-minute game in Athens. Moral victories? No, but go ask Penn State. Going 10-2 but losing the 2 biggest regular-season games doesn’t always have the same feeling.
The 2023 season was a massive success. Drinkwitz pushed all the right buttons. Whether that was stripping himself of play-calling duties and hiring Kirby Moore, moving Luther Burden III into the slot after Dominic Lovett transferred to Georgia or naming Brady Cook the unquestioned starter after the season opener, everything worked.
So what’s in store for an encore?
Let’s dig into it with Mizzou’s 2024 Crystal Ball:
This should be a historically good Mizzou offense
In 2008, Mizzou returned Chase Daniel from a team that should’ve probably played for a national title the previous year. It didn’t yield a title run in 2008, but it did yield an even better offense, which averaged 42.2 points per game. In the 15 seasons since then, Mizzou’s best scoring offense was in 2013 when it averaged 39.1 points, albeit with the aid of 4 non-offensive touchdowns.
It’s not crazy to suggest that those 2 offenses, which are the best in school history, could have a run for their money with this 2024 group. Cook returns for Year 3 as a starter alongside his top 3 targets, as well as promising young tight end Brett Norfleet and second-year wideout Marquis Johnson. Of course, Burden is the headliner of that group. He’s one of the top returning players in all of college football after he somehow exceeded massive expectations in Year 2. For my money, he’s the SEC’s top returning player.
Related: Looking to make a bet on the 2024 Heisman Trophy? SDS has you covered with all the latest odds!
The biggest loss is SEC leading rusher Cody Schrader, who became the heart and soul of the program. Not to diminish that, but history suggests that Drinkwitz will have no problem finding another elite tailback. He had a top-4 rusher in the SEC in 3 of 4 seasons, all of whom were different players. That’s why expectations for Georgia State transfer Marcus Carroll are exceptionally high. Some (me) are even predicting that he’ll be the SEC’s leading rusher.
Carroll was the nation’s leader in carries per game at Georgia State. With all due respect to fellow former 1,000-yard rusher Nate Noel, who transferred to Mizzou from Appalachian State, I can’t imagine that Carroll left that situation unless he was going to have a major role in that Mizzou backfield.
But the key in all of these pieces working together is Moore. Last year in his first season as the Tigers’ OC, Moore established himself as one of the rising offensive minds in the sport. He improved Mizzou by 8 points per game and a yard per play. In the SEC, that’s no joke.
Nobody is laughing at Mizzou’s offense anymore.
There are questions galore on defense
The stat I continue to bring up in the offseason that bears repeating is that Mizzou had more defensive players selected in the NFL Draft (5) than Georgia (4). That wasn’t a coincidence. That group was excellent. The job that Blake Baker did turning around that unit in 2 years was remarkable.
But now, not only are those 5 players (and other key contributors) gone, but so is Baker and edge-rushers coach Kevin Peoples, whom LSU poached. That means Mizzou will have a totally new look on defense with Corey Batoon stepping in. At Mizzou, Batoon will have full autonomy of the defense. That’s something he didn’t have at South Alabama, where then-head coach Kane Wommack (now the defensive coordinator at Alabama) had his hands in the defense.
So what does that mean? Questions. Some of those answers could come from the portal, where Mizzou added 10 players. One guy who was expected to make a significant impact was Georgia transfer Darris Smith, but he suffered a season-ending injury in fall camp. Florida transfer Chris McClellan and Zion Young will be relied on heavily to make a difference up front.
Last year’s group wasn’t perfect — Drinkwitz referenced at SEC Media Days how Mizzou must reduce the number of explosive plays allowed (60 scrimmage plays of 20 yards) — but it did help set a new standard. This group will be asked to live up to it and not regress to 2021 levels of disappointing.
Game-by-game predictions
Week 1: vs. Murray State (W)
A new Murray State coaching staff has long-term promise, but facing that Mizzou offense in a debut isn’t kind. The Tigers roll on a Thursday night.
Week 2: vs. Buffalo (W)
This is the second of 3 games to start the year against new head coaches. We all due respect to former South Carolina special teams extraordinaire Pete Lembo, a perfectly executed fake punt won’t be enough to pull off a stunner on the road.
Week 3: vs. Boston College (W)
Revenge game? Sure, why not? It’s a revenge game for Drinkwitz after losing at Boston College in 2021, but perhaps it has a different feel in the post-Jeff Hafley era. In the Bill O’Brien era, that means Mizzou’s offense should run wild against an overwhelmed Boston College defense. Mookie Cooper gets into the end zone for the first time since 2021 to put the exclamation point on a blowout win.
Week 4: vs. Vanderbilt (W)
After a relatively quiet start, we see the best version of Burden. He scores 3 touchdowns in the first half to give Mizzou a comfortable lead. That proves to be more than enough to take care of a Vandy team that’s not built to come from behind on the road.
Week 5: Bye
Week 6: at Texas A&M (L)
This will be the first of 2 instances in which A&M welcomes a top-10 team … only to look like a top-10 team by day’s end. The promising start for the Mizzou defense plays on its heels in its first road game of the season. Conner Weigman’s brilliance is on display against a work-in-progress Tigers secondary. Cook doesn’t go down without a fight, but there’s too much pressure on the Tigers to keep pace on the road. A&M hands Mizzou its first loss of the season in a thriller.
Week 7: at UMass (W)
This is my favorite game of the 2024 season. Mizzou is playing at UMass. I repeat, Mizzou is playing at UMass. Burden is too good to be stepping on this field in his pre-Draft season:
I’ve been to over 100 college football stadiums
I say with full confidence this is the worst one in the country pic.twitter.com/G9EQDcGn2v
— GFed (@GfedGoCrazy) July 5, 2024
Glorious. For Mizzou’s sake, I hope it’s undefeated and a top-5 team for this. For UMass coach Don Brown’s sake, I hope he doesn’t try to cover Burden with a single-high safety like he did as Michigan’s defensive coordinator against elite Ohio State receivers. Mizzou wins the weirdest/best game of the 2024 slate.
Week 8: vs. Auburn (L)
Just when everyone is praising Mizzou and writing off Auburn, the visiting Tigers pull off a significant upset in Columbia. The backfield depth is Auburn’s biggest weapon against a work-in-progress Mizzou defense. It’s not just Jarquez Hunter breaking off big runs. Damari Alston and Jeremiah Cobb both look well-rested coming off the bye week while Mizzou looks like a program that just traveled across the country to play … UMass. A weird day at Faurot Field turns into one of the more head-scratching results of SEC play.
Week 9: at Alabama (L)
Alabama and Mizzou will play in several shootouts in 2024. That’ll make for instances in which their respective head coaches know that a 28-7 lead can disappear quickly. That happens with the Tide, causing Bryant-Denny Stadium to wonder if Nick Saban can throw on a headset for the second half. But instead of it turning into a devastating loss, Alabama turns it into a pivotal, perhaps season-defining win. The Jalen Milroe Heisman buzz grows louder … as do Mizzou’s defensive woes.
Week 10: Bye
Week 11: vs. Oklahoma (L)
In the Theo Wease Bowl, Oklahoma shows that it has plenty of pass-catchers who can play at the SEC level. That turns into another frustrating day at the office for Mizzou’s secondary, which looks overmatched for the third time in as many games. Nic Anderson makes a pair of jump-ball grabs downfield that deflate the home crowd. Cook tries to put on his cape, but he ends up suffering a leg injury while trying to extend a play. He shows grit by staying in, but ultimately, Oklahoma dials up too much pressure for him to mount a comeback. The Sooners hand Mizzou a devastating home loss.
Week 12: at South Carolina (W)
With Cook on the shelf after suffering the leg injury against Oklahoma, Drinkwitz turns to Arizona State/Notre Dame transfer Drew Pyne. Instead of it being an opportunity for Shane Beamer to get over the hump against Mizzou, Pyne leads the Tigers to a hard-fought road victory to clinch bowl eligibility and, more important, stop a 3-game losing streak.
Week 13: at Mississippi State (W)
Cook returns for Mizzou in just the nick of time. The Tigers need every bit of their veteran quarterback to keep pace with Blake Shapen and the emerging Mississippi State offense. In a game that has “last team with the ball wins” written all over it, Norfleet steps up and hauls in a go-ahead score in the final minute for Mizzou.
Week 14: vs. Arkansas (W)
Mizzou’s Playoff hopes might be dashed, but preventing Arkansas from reaching the postseason is still a priority for Drinkwitz’s squad. That means unloading the full offensive arsenal in what is Burden and Cook’s final home game. Both put on a show. There’s not a defensive matchup that Arkansas can throw at Mizzou that makes a difference. Unlike last year, Arkansas has an offensive pulse, but a 1-dimensional attack in the 4th quarter leads to timely Mizzou sacks in a 42-31 victory for the Tigers.
2024 Projection: 8-4 (4-4), 9th in SEC
12-team Playoff berth? No
Yes, this would be a disappointment. No, I’m not going to sugarcoat that. Missing out on a 12-team Playoff with a group this loaded offensively would be a deflating feeling, especially with how well the schedule sets up. It could be the type of thing that casts future doubt on Drinkwitz.
But at the same time, Mizzou winning 8 games and having it be considered a “disappointment” tells you how quickly perspective has changed in Columbia. Drinkwitz deserves a ton of credit for that. He already earned a ton of compensation by joining the $9 million a year club. That comes with a new standard.
Mizzou missing out on the Playoff could feel a bit like LSU last year. As the Tigers saw up close, LSU had a historically great offense and a transitional defense. The irony is that’s why Baker and Peoples were poached by LSU, which put Mizzou in this tough spot. You can only put so much pressure on an offense. There’ll be weeks in which Mizzou can’t quite get to 35 points. If that’s the prerequisite for a victory, that’s not ideal.
If Drinkwitz can prove skeptics wrong with a defense that avoids significant regression, a Playoff berth should be on the table. That shouldn’t be ruled out.
That, however, will be no small feat.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
