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Monday Down South: Down goes Texas, the SEC’s last, best shot for a clear frontrunner. Bring on the chaos

Matt Hinton

By Matt Hinton

Published:

Takeaways, trends and technicalities from Week 8 in the SEC.
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It’s late October. The mid-point of the regular season has come and gone. The weather is turning, finally. The home stretch looms. It’s time to ask: Is there a championship team in this conference?

Somebody has to be the standard bearer, and there are no shortage of candidates. Nine SEC teams are ranked in the updated AP poll — including Vanderbilt, at No. 25, look at y’all — and 8 teams have at least 15% odds of making the Playoff per ESPN’s Football Power Index. Still, the question stands. The last undefeated team, Texas, ate dirt Saturday night in a decisive, 30-15 loss to Georgia, which came into the game with question marks of its own and came out with a couple of new ones.

The Longhorns were the last team that could carry themselves like a clear-cut frontrunner. Now, no team has separated itself from the pack, and for every argument that any of the would-be contenders is good enough to win it all, there’s an equally compelling case to be made that they’re not — at least, not yet. From the most likely to make the Playoff per FPI to the least, here are the biggest obstacles in their path:

• Georgia (87.1%): The bigger the load the Dawgs ask him to shoulder, the more the once-reliable Carson Beck reveals himself to be a turnover machine. In 2023, Beck threw 6 interceptions in 399 attempts; in the past 4 games alone, he’s thrown 8 picks in 168 attempts, with multiple-INT games against Alabama (3), Mississippi State (2) and now Texas (3).

Make no mistake: Despite the final score, Beck struggled in Austin, finishing with a career-low 77.3 passer rating and a negative EPA (-1.5). All but 1 of Georgia’s 6 scoring drives against the Longhorns started inside the UT 35-yard line. Even with the defense in top form (not as easily taken for granted with this group as with some of the vintage Kirby Smart-era defenses), it’s hard to win consistently with a quarterback who struggles to take care of the ball.

• Texas (78.9%): The Longhorns cruised through the first half of their schedule so effortlessly that a lot of us were starting to wonder if they had a soft spot. Georgia found it in a hurry: The offensive line. Quinn Ewers (and Arch Manning, briefly) looked like a deer in the headlights in the face of Georgia’s rejuvenated pass rush, but much of the blame for that falls on a veteran o-line that was out of its depth against a blue-chip SEC front. The Dawgs racked up 7 sacks and 23 QB pressures, per Pro Football Focus, abusing the Longhorns’ touted left tackle, Kelvin Banks Jr., right along with his less-decorated line mates.

It didn’t help that the running game was a nonfactor, or that Texas spent the better part of the last 3 quarters in comeback mode after falling behind by double digits in the first half. The front has generally been considered a strength this season, but after Saturday it will have to reprove itself all over again against top-shelf competition.

• Tennessee (67.1%): The defense and running game have consistently held up their end of the bargain, including in Saturday’s season-defining, 24-17 win over Alabama. The passing game is a work in progress, to put it mildly. Nico Iamaleava pulled out of his month-long slump long enough to lead a second-half comeback against the Tide, but is still in search of a go-to target among a bevy of intriguing but as-yet undistinguished options. As a team, Tennessee is next-to-last in the SEC in passes gaining 20+ yards vs. FBS opponents; meanwhile, no individual Tennessee receiver ranks among top 20 in the conference in receptions or receiving yards. How can it be that Bru McCoy and Squirrel White have played in every game and neither has scored a touchdown? Given the talent on hand, the lack of firepower from this group (erratic young quarterback very much included) is an ongoing source of frustration.

• Alabama (43.5%): Bama’s problems begin and end with a shockingly generous defense. Yes, Jalen Milroe’s regression on the turnover front over the past month is alarming. But much of that stems from the fact that the Tide need him to do so much to compensate for a defense in bad decline. Against Power 5 opponents, Alabama — Alabama! — ranks 15th out of 16 SEC teams in yards and points allowed, and 14th in gains of 20+ yards allowed.

Vanderbilt hanging 40 on the Tide was not a fluke. In Week 4, Georgia rallied from a dismal first half to outscore Bama 27-11 in the second, nearly completing an epic comeback in the process; in Week 8 Tennessee rallied from a scoreless first half to outscore Bama 24-10 in the second, and finished the job. All that’s standing between the Crimson Tide and a 4-game losing streak right now is an end zone interception that sealed the win against Georgia and a missed field goal by South Carolina as time expired.

• LSU (39.8%): Can the secondary be trusted? An improved pass rush has gone a long way to paper over the issues that plagued the defense last year, but the Tigers still rank 14th in the conference in yards per pass allowed and pass efficiency D, and they’re still less than two months removed from being shredded by USC’s Miller Moss in their only loss in the season opener. The pass rush made life miserable for Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart in LSU’s wild overtime win over the Rebels in Week 6, but a quality offense that can keep its man upright still has a chance to make hay through the air.

• Texas A&M (31.3%): Where’s the juice? Like Tennessee, A&M has dudes to spare at wideout but no one who moves the needle on his own. Leading receiver Noah Thomas, an imposing specimen, ranks 28th in the SEC in receptions and 29th in receiving yards. The Aggies sorely miss once-prized recruit Evan Stewart, who in a different timeline could have been a difference-maker on what has so far been a fairly nondescript offense.

• Ole Miss (22.3%): The Rebels’ vastly improved defensive line is a portal success story. The offensive line, on the other hand, remains behind the curve. There is a surplus of experience on the o-line, but talent-wise? There’s no one who projects as a potential all-conference pick or future pro. In Ole Miss’ 2 losses to Kentucky and LSU, Jaxson Dart was sacked a combined 10 times despite facing mostly standard 3- and 4-man fronts.

• Missouri (15.8%): Mizzou isn’t especially deficient in any area, but what is it especially good at? Luther Burden III and Theo Wease Jr. are NFL-ready wideouts, but the offense has averaged just 22 points in 4 games vs. Power 4 opponents, and that includes an overtime touchdown against Vanderbilt. The 31-point margin of defeat in the Tigers’ only loss, a 41-10 debacle at Texas A&M, was more than twice as large as the combined margin of victory in all three of their Power 4 wins (13 points).

Mob Rules

This column must address the bizarre episode on Saturday night in which Texas fans rained debris on the field in protest of the refs, and actually won the protest.

To review: Late third quarter, Longhorns trail 23-8 following their first touchdown. On the ensuing possession, Texas DB Jahdae Barron stepped in front of an ill-fated Carson Beck pass to the sideline for his second interception of the night, returning the ball to the UGA 9-yard line and stoking a palpable momentum shift in Texas’ favor … for a few seconds, anyway, before officials called the INT back due to a flag for defensive pass interference against Barron as he engaged with Georgia wideout Arian Smith at the top of Smith’s route. The home crowd (along with the TV audience at home) got one look at the replay and erupted. A lone beer can flew onto the field, followed by a shower of water bottles from the student section into the end zone opposite the action. The game was delayed for several minutes to restore order, in which time Steve Sarkisian crossed the field to personally implore the students to get a grip.

OK. Meanwhile, amid the pandemonium and subsequent cleanup — good hustle by Texas cheerleaders to join the ad hoc cleanup crew, by the way — officials huddled to discuss the play and determined, some 10-plus minutes after the fact, that the mob was right: No penalty, sorry about all that, 1st-and-goal Longhorns. Now it was Georgia’s turn to erupt. Texas scored 2 plays later to trim the margin to 23-15.

In the end, the sequence amounted to a moot point that did not swing the outcome of the game, although in real time it certainly could have. An official statement from the SEC explained that “the calling official reported that he erred” in throwing the flag, and “the original evaluation and assessment of the penalty was not properly executed,” which, no argument there. (The statement also condemned the reaction from the crowd, of course, and later fined Texas $250,000 for bad sportsmanship.) Kirby Smart said after the game that he was told the initial call was “on the wrong guy,” implying that the flag was initially intended to be for offensive pass interference against Smith but was announced against the wrong team.

Regardless, it was impossible to separate the eventual reversal from the hostile revolt that preceded it, especially in a massively hyped game that suddenly got a lot more interesting in the fourth quarter if the interception was allowed to stand than if it wasn’t. Watch the full sequence again: Officials not only announced the penalty, but marked off the yardage, spotted the ball, started the clock and signaled ready for play without discussing anything. By all appearances, the game was proceeding as usual with Georgia on offense. Twelve seconds ran off the clock before the first solitary beer can hit the turf, causing a brief stoppage to remove the can before the clock started again; another 8 seconds ran off before the water bottles started coming en masse, at which point officials whistled for a dead ball with Georgia’s offense in formation to run its next play. It was only after that point, amid a full-blown protest that forced the delay, that the crew finally huddled and decided to reverse the call. Had fans not started throwing stuff, there was no indication at all that officials were poised to rethink the penalty — quite the opposite.

Whatever the conference office claims, it was fairly obvious that the final call was at least in part in response to the crowd. Cue paranoia:

“I have never seen that before,” Fox rules analyst Dean Blandino told The Athletic. “A flag has never been picked up before after that long of a delay. It does seem like replay got involved either from the stadium or the SEC command center. Purely speculation, but it is hard not to come to that conclusion.”

Indeed it is not. There are two ways to go with this. One on hand, it’s hard to blame the refs for (eventually) reconsidering a bad call in a crucial, potentially game-changing situation and ultimately getting it right, even if the original mistake was egregious and it took far too long to correct it. Despite the hostility of the crowd, it would have been much easier in the moment to just stick with the original call. Then again, preferably they’re not going to, you know, incentivize a riot in the process. As Smart said, “now you’ve set a precedent that if you throw a bunch of stuff on the field and endanger athletes, that you got a chance to get your call reversed.” Once the bottles start flying, maaaaybe getting the call on the field right is no longer the top priority.

Then again, I’m under no obligation to have a capital-T TAKE here, so maybe not. When it comes to precedents, who knows? The sequence of events that led to the reversal on Saturday night was unique, as was the intensity of the crowd, the stakes of the game, and the pivotal circumstances of the call itself. (Not to mention the obviousness of the call, which had no defenders anywhere except on Georgia’s sideline.) It’s not like anybody actually believes officials are suddenly more susceptible to the whims of an angry crowd as a result of this, right? I guess we’ll find out the next time an outraged base decides that if a mass tantrum worked for Texas, maybe it can work for us, too.

Oklahoma: OC overboard

Oklahoma fired offensive coordinator Seth Littrell on Sunday after just 7 games on the job, effective immediately, and it’s a testament to just how badly those 7 games have gone that his exit felt inevitable. The stench wafting off Littrell’s unit has gotten more unbearable by the week. The Sooners rank last or next-to-last in the conference in just about every offensive category you can think of — scoring offense, total offense, rushing offense, passing offense, pass efficiency, yards per play, EPA, first downs, 3rd-down conversions, sacks allowed, plays of 20+ yards — and the reality has been arguably worse than the numbers. They can’t run the ball, can’t protect the quarterback, and for the past month haven’t had a healthy wideout who began the season on the two-deep. In their 3 losses, they have 3 times as many turnovers (9) as touchdowns (3), and all 3 of the latter came in garbage time of games that were over at halftime.

If last week’s 34-3 loss to Texas was an embarrassment, Saturday’s 35-9 debacle against South Carolina in Norman was something even worse: A collapse so thorough it bypassed mockery on the way to outright pity. Oklahoma’s fledgling quarterback, Michael Hawkins Jr., committed 3 rapid-fire giveaways in a span of 9 snaps to open the game, all of them resulting in Gamecocks touchdowns. The first, an interception on Hawkins’ first attempt, set the tone just seconds into the game, setting up a short-field TD drive for Carolina’s offense. The second, a fumble on the very next series, conjured up the spectacle of a 288-pound defensive tackle rumbling in the open field for a scoop-and-score TD that cast a pall over the stadium. The third, a pick-6 served up under duress, was a nail in the coffin barely 5 minutes into the game.

https://twitter.com/GamecockFB/status/1847687210570498222/

Hawkins, plainly overmatched, mercifully gave way at that point to the guy he replaced a month ago, Jackson Arnold, who finished the game with as much dignity as he could muster while coming off the bench to get sacked 8 times in a confirmed blowout. (Not for nothing, PFF also cited Oklahoma receivers for 6 drops.) But Arnold was sent to the bench for a reason following his first-half meltdown against Tennessee in Week 4, and prior to Saturday he was being sized up for a potential redshirt with an eye toward portaling out in December. The redshirt is off the table, but when a coordinator’s head rolls at midseason, it’s usually a sign of bigger changes to come. Littrell, a former captain on Oklahoma’s 2000 national championship team, is a canary in the coal mine.

The question now is whether his boss, Brent Venables, is in danger of becoming part of the exodus himself. If you were among the many, many people over the weekend googling “Venables buyout,” you learned that a) he just signed a contract extension in June that extended his $8.5 million-a-year deal through 2029, and b) buying out that contract this year that will cost in the neighborhood of $44.8 million. That’s not Jimbo Fisher money, but it is significant for a coach who was considered a no-brainer hire 3 years ago and oversaw a 10-3 season in 2023. At this rate, though, his bosses may not be left with much choice.

The name John Blake is beginning to surface with alarming regularity, in the context of “worst since …” The 26-point flop against South Carolina was Oklahoma’s most lopsided home loss against an unranked opponent since the nadir of the Blake years in 1997. The Sooners are 1-3 in SEC play (the lone win coming in a come-from-behind, 27-21 nail-biter at Auburn, where OU trailed 21-10 in the 4th quarter) with the steeper half of the conference slate still ahead: At Ole Miss, at Missouri, back home against Alabama, and at LSU to close the season. They’ll be significant underdogs in all of those games – they opened as 20.5-point dogs for this weekend’s trip to Oxford, to give you a taste of just how significant we’re talking about — meaning they’ll have to spring an upset just to reach the lowest rung of mediocrity, bowl eligibility. And that’s taking for granted a win over an FCS patsy, Maine, on Nov. 2, which … well, let’s not go there.

Of course, it’s not unheard of for a midseason coordinator change to pay off. The new play-caller, Joe Jon Finley, is another former OU captain who has been on staff the past 3 years after following former Sooners OC/current Mississippi State head coach Jeff Lebby from Ole Miss. He’s never called plays; he has been around success, and could benefit from some of the walking wounded at wide receiver trickling back into the rotation. But the other issues, particularly at quarterback, do not have a ready solution. If there’s a silver lining to this situation, it’s only that after Saturday there’s nowhere to go but up.

Lagway lets it rip

It was one of those Saturdays for SEC quarterbacks, when even the best performances qualified to one degree or another as “winning ugly.” Then there was Florida’s DJ Lagway, whose performance in a 48-20 romp over Kentucky was a breath of fresh air in The Swamp.

Admittedly, if you’re just looking at the box score that might seem like a strange way to describe a night on which Lagway finished just 7-for-14 with no touchdowns and 1 interception. Seven completions on 14 attempts? Fresh air? In context, though, his first SEC start in place of an injured Graham Mertz was exactly what Florida fans have been clamoring to see all year — specifically, a quarterback who is a live threat to push the ball downfield at all times.

If anything, in Lagway’s case “threat” might be putting it mildly. Per PFF, half of his 14 attempts and 5 of his 7 completions came on attempts of 20+ air yards, yielding 211 yards on a little more than 30 yards per attempt on downfield throws alone. (Compare and contrast that with Mertz, who was just 4-for-11 for 86 yards on downfield attempts on the season before he suffered a torn ACL in Week 7.) Three of those completions found their way into the hands of his favorite target, Arizona State transfer Elijhah Badger, covering 50, 58 and 40 yards, respectively, on 3 of the most aesthetically pleasing throws of this or most other Saturdays.

https://twitter.com/OldRowGators/status/1847808997018992750/

https://twitter.com/fhstigers_/status/1847837190321287438/

All 3 of those completions set up short touchdown runs by true freshman RB Jadan Baugh, who went for 106 yards 5 touchdowns (all from 10 yards or less) in his first career start. But although the Gators kept the ball on the ground on roughly three-quarters of their total snaps, the majority of their 476 yards on the night came on just those handful of flicks of Lagway’s wrist.

The flip side of his explosiveness, for now, remains his inexperience (obviously) and inconsistency. He’s thrown as many interceptions (5) as touchdowns on the season, and that’s counting 3 TDs in a Week 2 win over Samford. He is very much a work in progress, which is why Billy Napier was so reluctant to fast-track Lagway to the top of the depth chart earlier this season even when the entire country — this space included — was begging him to dump Mertz before it was too late to salvage his job. Mertz was in the process of justifying that decision prior to his injury, which occurred on a touchdown pass that put Florida up 10-0 at Tennessee in the third quarter of an eventual overtime loss in Knoxville; that game is all that’s separating the Gators from taking a 4-game winning streak into November.

Speaking of November, Napier’s status is still a hot topic with Georgia, Texas, LSU and Ole Miss looming on the other side of an open date. Florida has to win at least 1 of those to have a chance at breaking even for the season against Florida State, which still qualifies as a fairly depressing state of affairs by Florida standards. Beyond the record, though, the real goal down the stretch is generating a sense of forward momentum, reassurance that the growing pains are worth it and the best is yet to come, etc. Even at his savvy, veteran best, Mertz was never going to pull that off against a gauntlet of Playoff contenders. Lagway, green as he is, has a shot. As he proved on Saturday, with his gifts, it only takes a few brief glimpses of what’s possible to make the future look very bright.

Superlatives

The week’s best individual performances.

1. Georgia LB/Edge Jalon Walker. Walker led Georgia’s resurgent pass rush against Texas, accounting for a team-high 7 QB pressures and 3 of the Bulldogs’ 7 sacks in a vintage performance for the front seven. Between Walker and a healthy Mykel Williams (4 pressures, 2 sacks), the giant red question mark hanging over UGA’s edge-rushing prospects the past 2 years is fading fast.

2. Tennessee Edge James Pearce Jr. It’s been a relatively quiet year for Pearce, stat-wise. But he confirmed his first-round bona fides against Alabama, turning in his best game of the season and arguably his career with 9 QB pressures and both of the Vols’ sacks against Jalen Milroe — a welcome breakout for a player who began the season with high expectations, and who the Vols will need to deliver on big stages to sustain their championship hopes opposite an offense still working it out.

3. Tennessee RB Dylan Sampson. The SEC’s leading rusher put the offense on his back against the Tide, grinding out a career-high 139 yards and 2 touchdowns on 5.3 yards per carry — Sampson’s 6th 100-yard effort on the ground in 7 games.

4. LSU LB Whit Weeks. There is no replacing Harold Perkins Jr.’s unique skill set, but Weeks’ production in place of the injured Perkins has been second to none. He followed up a breakout game against Ole Miss in Week 7 with another high-volume stat line Saturday in a 34-10 win at Arkansas: 9 tackles, 5 QB pressures, 1 sack, and 1 tip-drill interception, for good measure.

https://twitter.com/LSUfootball/status/1847813159421100210/

Weeks, a true sophomore, is already very much in the running for best linebacker in the SEC, a distinction he might still hold if his higher-profile teammate was still in the rotation.

5. South Carolina DB Nick Emmanwori. Most of South Carolina’s starting defense deserves to come for recognition for a sweltering effort at Oklahoma. Consider Emmanwori a rep for the entire unit. The junior ballhawk finished with a team-high 11 tackles and a pair of interceptions, including the pick-6 posted above that effectively ended the competitive portion of the proceeding barely 5 minutes into the game. That was his second pick-6 of the season, making him 1 of only 3 players nationally with multiple house calls on the year.

Honorable Mention: Tennessee DB Jermod McCoy, who picked off 1 pass, broke up another, and held Alabama receivers to 44 yards on 11 targets in his direction. … Alabama DB Malachi Moore, who had an interception and forced a fumble against the Vols. … Oklahoma LB Danny Stutsman, who recorded 16 tackles and 2 TFLs in a solid but futile effort against South Carolina. … Texas A&M DL Shemar Turner, who had 2 TFLs and forced a fumble in a 34-24 win at Mississippi State. … Florida QB DJ Lagway and WR Elijhah Badger, for reasons outlined above. … Florida RB Jadan Baugh, a true freshman, who ran for 106 yards and 5 touchdowns against Kentucky in his first career start. … Florida LB Devin Moore, who had an interception and a pair of PBUs in addition to 7 tackles. … Auburn LB Eugene Asante, whose 7 tackles against Missouri included a pair of sacks. … Vanderbilt TE Eli Stowers, who caught 8 passes for 130 yards (the vast majority of them coming after the catch) and a touchdown in 24-14 win over Ball State. … Auburn punter Oscar Chapman, who dropped 5 of his 7 punts against Missouri inside the 20-yard line without allowing a return. … And Missouri QB Brady Cook, who returned from a prolonged injury absence to lead Missouri from a 17-3 deficit to a 21-17 win over Auburn.

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The scoring system for players honored in Superlatives awards 8 points for the week’s top player, 6 for 2nd, 5 for 3rd, 4 for 4th, 3 for 5th, and 1 for honorable mention, because how honorable is it really if it doesn’t come with any points? Standings are updated weekly with the top 10 players for the season to date.

SEC Power Rankings

Updating the food chain.

1. Georgia (6-1). Nobody believed in them, but after 3 grueling weeks in the wilderness, poor little ol’ Georgia is back on top. | Last Week: 2⬆

2. Texas (6-1). Steve Sarkisian badly wants to avoid the whiff of a quarterback controversy, insisting after Saturday’s loss that “Quinn’s our starter.” But his willingness to hand the ball over to Arch Manning for 2 series to close the first half let everyone know where the situation really stands. If he continues to struggle, Ewers is never more than a series or 2 from the bench. | LW: 1⬇

3. LSU (6-1). Very quietly the Tigers are playing their way into solid position for the home stretch. Saturday’s 34-10 win at Arkansas was their 6th consecutive win since dropping the opener against USC and their most complete effort of the year. Next up: At Texas A&M, which has also won 6 straight since its opening-night flop against Notre Dame, in a collision of the SEC’s only remaining unbeatens in conference play. | LW: 4⬆

4. Tennessee (6-1). I’m still not sure how much I trust Nico Iamaleava, who has had a rough month and spent much of Saturday afternoon inspiring visions of Joe Milton. He finished 2-for-8 on attempts of 20+ air yards against Bama while repeatedly overthrowing open receivers. With the game on the line, though, Iamaleava’s go-ahead touchdown strike to Chris Brazzell II with just under 6 minutes to go was a thing of beauty. Those are the kinds of throws you invest in a 5-star quarterback to make in those kinds of moments. | LW: 6⬆

5. Texas A&M (611). The Aggies opened as 3.5-point favorites (via FanDuel) over LSU this weekend in College Station, a critical swing game for both teams’ Playoff outlooks. If the chalk holds, they’ll be in sole possession of first place in the conference standings with a straight shot to 10-1 heading into the regular-season finale against Texas. | LW: 5⬌

6. Alabama (5-2). For a long time, I had what I thought was a pretty good idea of how the post-Saban era at Bama would unfold, which was essentially a slow, barely perceptible decline over time ending in a crash several years down the road. So much for that vision of the Tide’s staying power. They aren’t crashing (yet), but it’s safe to say Kalen DeBoer is not going to win a Larry Coker-style national title strictly on inertia. | LW: 3⬇

7. Ole Miss (5-2). The Lane Kiffin-to-Florida stuff must click because new speculation continues to regenerate itself weekly based on nothing in particular. Imagine if the Florida job actually becomes available. | LW: 7⬌

8. Missouri (6-1). Brady Cook hurt his ankle in the first quarter, went to the hospital, then returned in the second half to rally Mizzou from a 17-3 deficit against Auburn to a 21-17 win. Just one more reason that, while he may be quickly forgotten by the rest of the country, Cook drinks free in his home state for life. | LW: 8⬌

9. Vanderbilt (5-2). Vandy, baby, y’all is ranked. Enjoy it while it lasts. Next up: Texas, in Nashville. | LW: 9⬌

10. Arkansas (4-3). LSU’s trip to Fayetteville projected as a wide-open game ripe for chaos, as reflected in a 2.5-point spread. Instead, Arkansas fell behind early and wilted late, possessing the ball for just 1:56 in the 4th quarter of a decisive loss. Which, when you think about it, isn’t turning in a lame-duck effort when everyone is expecting chaos kind of like, more chaotic? No? Eh, maybe the Hogs just spent all their chaos tokens on their Week 6 upset over Tennessee. | LW: 10⬌

11. Florida (4-3). Gators are heading into November above .500 and in relatively high spirits, a dramatic emotional turnaround from a month ago. Check back in another month. | LW: 12⬆

12. South Carolina (4-3). In the Gamecocks’ past 3 conference wins dating to last season, they’ve averaged a meager 254 yards of total offense on 4.5 yards per play. But they’re +8 in turnover margin in those games, which in the Shane Beamer era is almost always the decisive factor. Since the start of the 2021 season the ‘Cocks are 13-4 when they finish on the plus side of the giveaway/takeaway ledger vs. 3-15 when they end up in the red. | LW: 13⬆

13. Oklahoma (4-3). Yeah, the Sooners are down bad, but it could always be worse. At least they’re not Florida State. | LW: 11⬇

14. Kentucky (3-4). Mark Stoops has built up a lot of goodwill in Lexington but they’re not paying him $9 million a year and investing in big-ticket transfers for this. The Wildcats are 2-9 in their last 11 conference games, including four straight losses in games they were favored to win. | LW: 14⬌

15. Auburn (2-5). The Tigers are 0-4 in SEC play for the second year in a row, but the fact that this team has been more competitive in the process somehow makes it worse: Rather than a predictable slog, every week has brought a fresh new way to be disappointed. Their best remaining chance at a conference win is this weekend’s trip to Kentucky, where Auburn opened as a 3.5-point underdog in one of the more depressing matchups of the season. | LW: 15⬌

16. Mississippi State (1-6). The Bulldogs probably will not win an SEC game due to a rock-bottom defense, but freshman QB Michael Van Buren clearly has a future. Time to start passing the collection plate to keep him in the fold. | LW: 16⬌

Matt Hinton

Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.

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